http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=14087140&postcount=1314
Cheers.
I won’t be back until around lunchtime myself.
Well, I suppose Red voting septimus was pretty inevitable. But bussing isn’t going to let you off the hook now.
I say that because I’m about to:
unvote Red
vote septimus
(Confirm lock-in on septimus)
but this doesn’t mean I’m any less suspicious of Red. But I can’t finish voting for both of them, and septimus is in the lead so I might as well keep him there.
Should have done a bit more text formatting there:
confirm lock-in on septimus
Ugh.
I am flabbergasted by what is going on in this game. We basically have a Claim/Counterclaim situation today between me and Red Skeezix. The odds are extremely high that one of us is scum, so why are we seriously considering someone else with less than 12 hours left in the Day? The high percentage play in this instance is to lynch one of the “claimees.” If we lynch wrong, lynch the other one the next Day. It’s a classic one for one trade, which is good for Town, and is basic mafia strategy. (I realize that PizzaGuy has been jumping up and down all day, waving his arms around, and posting 10,000 word essays on why anyone except **Red Skeezix **should be lynched, but I’m amazed anyone is listening to him.)
Here’s what I think Town players should be doing:
- Examine the claims of Red Skeezix and I.
- Review the night results and explanations of both parties.
- If you have time, take a review of our posting to date in the game. (At least take a look at toDay’s postings).
- Decide who you think is more likely to be Scum and vote for one of us.
My votes are already locked into Red Skeezix. **I will be using my Vote power before the end of the day to power up anyone who locks in votes on Red. ** I’d rather do someone other than me, but if I have to power myself up, so be it.
Because I find it more feasible that you and Red are both telling the truth than I do that both Red and septimus are. And when I look at the evidence, it seems septimus is the one more likely to be lying than Red. As I have stated before, the fact that there was no kill last Night does concern me, but there are possible explanations for it.
I was wary of a Septimus lynch, because if he is bulletproof Townie, then Scum would just love for us to lynch him. I wanted to wait and see how things played out, but people seem to want to lynch him today. I went back and did a reread. I have a whole list of posts and comments, but I will just quote the one that jumped out at me on reread:
bolding mine.
Surely if Septimus is not worried about the NK it’s because he is bulletproof. But no, he thinks he is Vanilla now. Sounds a lot like he did get a notification after all. This puts Red Skeezix’s claim in a new light.
unvote Red Skeezix
vote septimus
vote septimus
I have also been looking through Normal’s posts (well, most of them), because I was concerned about her role in the Septimus near-lynch, and her extreme pushing of Shadowfacts yesterday. I was leaning town on her before that, and I didn’t see anything in particular to change my mind. Her case on Shadowfacts, which looked weak/ultra-subtle to me before, looks much stronger knowing that Shadowfacts was in fact concealing something.
Septimus (12): Red Skeezix [1295], Askthepizzaguy [1429], Stanislaus [1438], Askthepizzaguy [1444], Normal Phase [1447], Mental Guy [1468], Inner Stickler [1470], Inner Stickler [1470], Red Skeezix [1480], Stanislaus [1482], Weedy [1486], Weedy [1486]
Red Skeezix (5): ShadowFacts [1258], Hirka T’Bawa [1260], Septimus [1276], USCDiver [1280], ShadowFacts [1416]
Askthepizzaguy (3): Septimus [1276], USCDiver [1280], Suburban Plankton [1393]
ShadowFacts (2): Normal Phase [1291], gnarlycharlie [1404],
Mental Guy (1): Normal Phase [1447]
Lightfoot (1): choie [1406]
Locked in: Hirka T’Bawa, Red Skeezix, Askthepizzaguy, Inner Stickler, ShadowFacts, Stanislaus, Weedy
With these votes, Septimus would be lynched. Day ends in 8 hours at 6 pm central time. As always, please check for errors.
sigh
I give up. I know when I’ve been outplayed. Only thing left is to tip my hat.
tips hat
Since I know I’m Town I must again try to stay alive.
Unvote: AskthePizzaGuy
Vote: Red Skeezix
I do think you Townies are being led astray. As usual you lock in your votes rather than allowing me to defend. Know that I’ll be laughing at you from the grave if no one comes to my rescue.
Miss Phase, will you please have a drink with me toNight, even if I’m Dead? Make mine hemlock and potassium cyanide. 
[QUOTE=Askthepizzaguy]
<several thousand words (no, I didn’t actually count them) explaining exactly why we should lynch **Septimus **Today>
[/QUOTE]
God help me, this makes sense.
I can easily reconcile both **ShadowFacts **and Red Skeezix being Town. It’s considerably less clear how both **Septimus **and Red Skeezix can both be Town, and Septimus’ case is definitely the weakest, particularly because he claims not to know his current status.
vote Septimus
And I’ll make Pizza’s day here by flip-flopping on him once again. I’ll admit right now that I can’t get a handle on this guy, and I think I’ll stop trying for a while.
unvote Askthepizzaguy
I’m holding on to my second vote for now.
Do you really not see the case for you and **Red **both being Town? What about that scenario strikes you as impossible?
**peekercpa **is one of our more colorful and verbose posters. I believe he actually held the unnoficial record for ‘most consecutive posts’ before this game 
**Meeko **is another player who has a tendency to monopolize the conversation at times.
Hopefully that helps you understand what we were getting at
Ohboy. I was hoping to see Red’s response; I was hoping to weigh in myself, and now both of those things seem superfluous.
I hope this is right; I have certainly had my doubts at times. With a seven vote difference I am going to keep my votes split, and I would like Shadow to use the message power. (I’d really like him to use the vote power, but I doubt he will. But one or the other would be nice.)
First instance that pops into my head is Space Hijack. Scum had a paranoid doctor.
It’s relevant because it signals that there is an incongruency with my PM in his claim. How much then of his claim should I trust? None of it, I can only trust the data which I possess: 1. Septimus surived a vig attempt. 2. I was told Septimus was protected.
Then what possibilities are there?
- Septimus possesses some passive protection.
- Septimus was protected from a non passive source (possibly himself).
Of two unlikely cases, which is more likely?
(I am discarding scotsman, because I don’t think he would have vote manipulated if he would have survived regardless.) I believe the second is more likely based on the wording in my PM, and proceed along that path. Septimus partially professing one or the other is meaningless, since I believe he is lying.
Why would the vig claim in that scenario? Claiming essentially gives scum a 1 for 1 that depending on septimus’s role might balance out. If septimus has no powers, limited powers that have already been expended, or has somewhat useless powers, then the trade is to scum’s advantage. They would be removing a player who can reduce the unknown pool, take away hiding places, and possibly remove scum players directly.
I find ShadowFacts’ frustration convincing, but I find the fact that no one has actually tried to overturn the argument even a little bit disturbing.
If it’s such a horrible anti-town thing that’s about to happen, somebody use their big boy words to explain why septimus could be innocent given the data.
And then, explain why Red could be innocent if septimus is. Obviously you’ve got one, haven’t ya?
Now explain which is more likely… oh I give up. Am I just talking to a wall, ShadowFacts? REFUTE doesn’t mean IGNORE!
Disturbing how?
I find it disturbing in an Oh god I hope this is scums giving up and not scums gleefully piling on yet another not-scum sort of way.
If my vote tally is correct…
Players with no votes:
Pedescribe
LightFoot
Players with only one vote:
Hirka T’Bawa (Red Skeezix)
Mental Guy (Septimus)
choie (LightFoot)
gnarlycharlie (ShadowFacts)
Suburban Plankton (Septimus)
Players with two votes, but not locked in:
Normal Phase (Septimus, Mental Guy)
Right now Septimus has a 7-vote lead over Red Skeezix. If ShadowFacts uses his power (on himself or Septimus), and Hirka doubles his existing vote, that becomes a 4-vote difference. There are still 8 potential votes available among people who are not currently voting for either of the top two candidates, but there are also 3 people voting Septimus who have votes available to cast/move.
There’s still a little bit of room for last-minute voting shenanigans, but not much. And any effort to change the vote at this point is going to have to be a concerted one.
I’m going to be completely honest: I can’t refute your case on septimus because I didn’t read your case on septimus. I simply cannot keep up with the walls of words and you’ve thrown out so many scenarios and possibilities and hypotheses that I cannot follow anymore. You’ve exhausted me, outplayed me, and demoralized me. I can see now how this is going to play out and I congratulate you.
I can also see that using my vote power isn’t going to make a difference today. Anyone around not named Pizza or Normal want to get a Message from me? 
Sure, I’ll take one. I’m completely in agreement with regards to **Pizza’s **case on septimus, tl&dr.
Anyone care to summarize it for me? I don’t see why everyone is all of a sudden assuming that **Red **and **Shadow **are both telling the truth when it requires a leap of faith that the Scum missed a kill AND the Vig was blocked.
I would rather you sent the message to LightFoot. I don’t really trust Diver.