De'endee Mafia

The Game Room
1621

From his next post, also not excerpted by Pizza:

Ack! Why’s scum Septimus making excuses for Red? Red claimed “missed the deadline”, PERIOD; Septimus offers a second explanation?

He goes on in this post to accuse ShadowFacts some more, partly on his “bad logic” against Red in the post he’s responding to, mostly on the idea that SF’s extra votes might actually be just too too dangerous for the town.

Is this more about lynching Shadowfacts or saving Red? At this point Septimus was still not in much danger and Red still looked to wind up swinging. Shadowfacts had actually lost a vote (Pizza’s), though it was only two posts previously.

1622

It would also explain the lack of Night kill. But why would Red not have just claimed that he was blocked or his kill failed rather than pointing out specifically his target was protected? I guess that question may fall in the same category as why did septimus not just fake getting a message he was attacked.

1623

The sun had long since set, and a few adventurers were helping themselves to the town’s dwindling ale stock.

“So what’s a Beguiler, anyway?”

“Hell if I know. Anybody got a monster manual?”

A mousy-looking Mage sheepishly raised his hand.

*“The beguiler relies mostly on spells that cloud the mind and fool the senses. Beguilers are adept at staying alive and unnoticed, and some can even use their magical abilities to appear honest and trustworthy…”

  • Bertram’s Magical Monster Compendium, Vol. 4.*

(Septimus was a godfather.)

1624

Ah, danke, Astral. So I was at least somewhat right.

Although the implications as regards Red Skeezix and, I think, the prospective existence or not of a scum doctor, are still unclear based on that color.

1625

I’ve finished reviewing almost every living player’s posts to this point. The only people I haven’t done are Normal Phase (because I’m not sure I have the energy for 250 more posts) and **Askthepizzaguy **(because I *know *I don’t have the energy). Here’s what I’ve got:

**LightFoot **- Town. The chance that this is a Scum ploy with no counterclaim is almost nonexistent at this point.

**Choie **- Town. I think she’s just in over her head and has no idea what to do. If she had teammates, I think she wouldn’t be reacting as strongly as she is in the game thread.

**ShadowFacts **- Town. I explained earlier why I thought his claim made no sense if he was anything else.

**Stanislaus **- Town. I just find myself agreeing with most of what he has to say.

**Askthepizzaguy **- Town. I still maintain that much of his play has been less than helpful to the Town, but his entire body of work does appear Town-centric.

Hirka T’Bawa - Leaning slightly Town. He was suspicious of **Septimus **until his claim. He was suspicious of **ShadowFacts **until *his *claim. He remains suspicious of Red Skeezix despite his claim, which is what tips the scales for me at this point.

Normal Phase - Leaning Town, based more on ‘gut feeling’ than anything I can put my finger on. In any case, there are a number of people much higher on my suspicion list than her.

**USCDiver **- I’m unsure. He seems to be playing a low-key, ‘safe’ game, but I’m not seeing anything that really pings me.

Inner Stickler - I just can’t get a good read on him either way.

**Pedescribe **- No idea. *If *there is a Vig, *and *if he decides to target someone Tonight, I think **Pedescribe **is the best target, unless the Vig is very certain he has found Scum.

**Red Skeezix **- Scum. After reviewing the whole game, I’m finding a lot I don’t like. Day 1 he doesn’t think **KellyCriterion **is Scum, but agrees that because of the strength of the bandwagon against him, **Kelly **should be lynched anyway. Of course, coming just half an hour before EOD and with **Kelly **4 votes ahead of everyone else, it’s a rather meaningless statement anyway, which begs the question of why it was said in the first place.

Day 2 he votes Silver Jan and and ShadowFacts. Later, ShadowFacts unvotes Silver Jan, makign the vote tied between her and Askthepizzaguy. Since he thinks Scum wouldn’t do that in this situation, he unvotes ShadowFacts, but points out that he still thinks **Shadow’s **unvote was Scummy. On Day 3 he reminds us that he thought Silver Jan and **ShadowFacts **couldn’t both be Scum, and since **SJ **was Town, **SF **must be Scum. First, he seemed to think both *could *be Scum for a large part of the previous Day; even as he was unvoting **ShadowFacts **he was packpedaling. Second, his conclusion does not follow logically from his premise: if **SF **and **SJ **cannot both be Scum, and **SJ **is not Scum, then it does not follow therefore that **SF **is Scum.

Regarding his call for **Septimus **to be Vigged: It was a perfectly sensible position to take following **Septimus’ **last-minute actions. As I was writing this up originally, my thought was that **Red **knew **Septimus **would be immune to a Vig, so he was perfectly safe in suggesting it. The late reveal that **Septimus **was a Godfather seems to refute that theory, as there’s no reason to believe he was also immune to Night Kills; however, I think the lack of any ‘extra’ kills on Nights 1 and 2 point to there being no Vig in the first place…and in that case **Red **was still perfectly safe in calling for **Septimus **to be Vigged. And **Red **as Scum is still the most believable explanation for the lack of deaths Night 3.

Weedy - Scum. Looking first at Romanic, I can’t find where he really said anything of substance at all. Weedy, on the other hand, seems to be waffling on just about every decision. And it was his late vote on Silver Jan that opened the door for Septimus’ last minute machinations.

**Mental Guy **- Scum. He unvoted Kelly on Day 1, but he was OK with a **Kelly **lynch. He didn’t like **Pizza’s **play on day 2, but didn’t think he was Scum, but he couldn’t argue against a **Pizza **lynch. He seems to have trouble figuring out who to vote for. Day 4 he wanted to vote for Red, but voted **Septimus **instead. He pointed out that it was more likely that **Red **and **ShadowFacts **are both Town than **Red **and Septimus. trying to put some distance between **Red **and Septimus, perhaps?

**gnarlycharlie **- Leaning Scum. I agree that he’s just playing entirely too ‘safe’, and that feels Scummy to me here.

So, to sum up, I think the following are most likely to be our Scum, in this order:

Red Skeezix
Mental Guy
Weedy
gnarlycharlie

I don’t think there is a Vig at all. and I would suggest that the Vig, if he does exist, *not *fire again Tonight. That way any death is definitely attributable to Scum, and we are guaranteed that the Vig doesn’t kill a Townie. We managed to lynch a Scum finally, but the fewer deaths we have overNight the better off we are, unless the Vig has a very strong feeling that they have a good target.

1626

On gnarlycharlie – agree with whom?

On the vig – have you forgotten the scum kills have a rather distinctive calling card thus far that would be expected to be distinguishable from a vig kill? Whether it’s a team thing or limited to a specific player doing the kills, that player certainly wasn’t godfather Septimus, so there’s every reason to expect it again tonight unless that player is under some sort of expected threat. There’s no reason to expect a vig’s kill to be confused with anythign else; the entire point of tonight’s exercise (as regards Red Skeezix) is to
a) see him dead-by-scum (with or without successful kill)
b) have him kill a scum
c) have him kill a townie while a normal scum kill also occurs
d) have another no-kill night due to a claimed block on him by ShadowFacts
in not quite exactly that order of desirability. He has to fire, if town.

And if he’s scum, the hope is that he can’t. But you just give him an excuse not to have to, with this idea.

1627

On gnarlycharlie, I’d have to go back and see who else said it.

As for the Vig issue, what ‘distinctive calling card’ are you referring to?

I think you’re referring in the rest of this post to one of the “Pizza Plans”, but I’m not certain which one, or what the details are. If there is some way to reliably test Red’s claim tonight, then I would be in favor of it. How would you go about it? Can you sum up the plan again for me here?

1628

The distinctive calling card being the delay in death reveal. I see no reason why a vig kill woudl be the same. It shouldn’t be, by all logic.

There is no specific plan I’m referring to, but if you won’t follow the logic I have right there I’m not sure what else to say. There are a number of options that could confirm Red as town tonight (one way or another). If he holds off firing, those options are reduced to one (scum killing him). Obviously if he is himself scum, that ain’t gonna happen.

One more thing I meant to say: the leveling discussion just reminded me there may come a time when it is not possible to protect Lightfoot, depending on the relative levels of both killer and doctor. Definitely getting the current scum killer sooner than later is in our favor.

1629

Regarding gnarlycharlie, it was actually **MentalGuy **who first called him out for posting “almost all generic strategy or game mechanics”, and Normal Phase who agreed one post later, back on Day 2.

A closer look at gnarlycharlie:

Day 1:
voted Askthepizzaguy for his early, non-explained vote on Koldanar. Later says he understands Pizza’s idea of ‘pressure votes’, but still finds it suspicious. He wonders why Silver Jan claimed when she was not the lynch leader, and points out that the ‘discrepancy’ in Silver Jan’s PM may be duure to the fact that she is Scum, or maybe an effort by the mods to prevent handshaking.

Day 2:
Agrees that some power is delaying the death reveals. Thinks it was a mistake for LightFoot to claim. Attacks Normal Phase and Mental Guy vor voting him for posting only general strategy and game mechanics. Questions USCDiver about his voting Pizza “for obvious reasons”, then votes USCDiver for flip-flopping on Pizza. Also votes Normal for making a bad case against him, but later agrees to reread to see if his vote on Normal will stay or not. It does.

Day 3:
Votes Septimus after the Day 2 shenanigans. Votes Mental Guy for making a bad case against him, but now believes Normal is town. Still finds USCDiver suspicious

Day 4:
Votes ShadowFacts because he is “unlikely to do anything we tell him”, and possible because he didn’t double his vote on red early in the Day. Will hold on to his second vote until he hears from LightFoot. Never returns to place a second vote. Still suspicious of USCDiver and MentalGuy.

He has voted for Askthepizzaguy (Day 1), USCDiver and Normal Phase (Day 2), Septimus and Mental Guy (Day 3), and ShadowFacts (Day 4). With the exception of Septimus, none of these people were ever in any danger of actually being lynched, he has not voted for the same person more than once, and not once has he changed a vote once it was made.

He seems to be trying very hard to participate in the game, but not to be trying much at all to actually contribute.
On preview I see your comments on the Vig. Give me a few minutes to look them over…

1630

Looking things over, I don’t see how we can confirm Red as Town Tonight.

a) see him dead-by-scum (with or without successful kill)
This will certainly confirm Red.
b) have him kill a scum
This would be almost as good as a) from a confirmation standpoint (unless the Scum sacrifice one of their own to ‘confirm’ Red).
c) have him kill a townie while a normal scum kill also occurs
*This suggests that Red has a killing power, but does not *prove it, and does not confirm his as Town.
d) have another no-kill night due to a claimed block on him by ShadowFacts
This suggests that Red is Scum, unless the Scum choose to forego their Night kill order to ensure a lynch.

Assuming **Red **isn’t killed, I don’t think that the possibility of confirming (or near-confirming) him as Town is that great, since that would pretty much require him to kill a Scum. If there is a second Townie death, then we have to deal with the possibility of a secondary Scum kill or that **Red **is a Serial Killer, and in any case we are down 2 more Townies at Dawn instead of one. Even if we were to consider Red ‘mostly-confirmed’ at that point, would it be worth the extra Town death?

And I don’t see how we accomplish a no-death Night in the first place, other than by luck. If the Scum expect **ShadowFacts **to block Red, and **Red **is Scum, wouldn’t they just pick someone else to do the kill?

I will agree that this plan has a higher likelihood of producing information about **Red **than my ‘no kill’ plan (which has none). I’m just not sure the reward is worth the risk in this case.

1631

I guess this is it. I’m off to work and have absolutely no time for further commentary.

I will say this: I disagree with Suburban. He’s clearly trying to get himself and ShadowFacts and choie out of the line of fire.

Those are our top suspects.

Inner Stickler, he needs serious questioning, and don’t necessarily buy anything he claims at face value. But, I also have reason to think he could be not a scumbag.

It’s 50/50. The questioning should get to the bottom of it.

Good luck.

1632

Also, for the love of grapes, if Red is scum, it will become clear in time. Forcing him to die now is scummy.

The godfather was protected against his role. Derp.

1633

If **Red **is Scum, then the best time for him to die is NOW. Of course, if **Red **is Scum, then there’s no way he dies Tonight.

How do you know the Godfather was protected against anything?

If **Red **is Town, then yes, **Septimus **was protected somehow. But if **Red **is Scum, then he never attacked Septimus in the first place, so there was no need for protection.

1634

Sorry SP, but even thinking you’re scum this is getting a bit much. Serial killer, really? You think Red Skeezix, of all people, would go three nights as a serial killer and manage to kill no one? He is a much better player than that.

And how many times have you seen scum allowed to kill each other?

If someone else did it and Red tries to accept credit, they claim, that’s all. We’re getting down to claim time anyway. And see above.

No night kill plus town lynch is fine by me, status quo at worst and in all likelihood town steals a march on the scum due to information gain.

Not sure whether you’re trying to offer Red an out for inaction tonight or trying to sucker a town Red into another he said/she said day tomorrow (ETA: not to mention no vig shot), but either way I don’t like it.

1635

It seems to me that **Red **as Serial Killer with no kills is *precisely *as likely as **Red **as Vigilante with no kills. I think the likelihood of either in this case is rather small.

I’ve never known Scum to kill each other (I have no idea if it’s ‘allowed’ or not). My point there was that a dead Scum would all but confirm Red.

If a second Townie dies due to ‘someone else’, I would expect that ‘someone’ to be another Scum, who would gladly allow Red to take credit for it. And yes, we are getting close to claim time in any case, unless we have a very good Night Tonight (e.g. we wind up with a single death, and it is Scum).

[quote]
No night kill plus town lynch is fine by me, status quo at worst and in all likelihood town steals a march on the scum due to information gain.

[quote]

We agree that no-kill plus Town lynch is ‘fine’. I’m simply playing more conservatively than you, in trying to guarantee a ‘fine’ result. Maybe that’s not optimal, but I fail to see how it’s Scummy.

You know what, I think this is all academic anyway. I think **Red **is Scum, and therefore not a Vig. I think there will only be one kill Tonight in any case, because there is only one killing Power available, that being the normal Scum kill. I said as much in Post 1625.

So I’ll amend my statement there, as follows: I think that *if *Red is the Vig, he should attack Tonight. I think if the Vig is anyone other than Red they should hold their fire.

Since I’m saying that **Red **is not the Vig, that logically collapses to “I don’t think the Vig should fire”, but now it doesn’t give Red an ‘out’.

So, we’re all friends again now, right? :smiley:

1636

You know what, I’ll amend my amendment.

The Vig should let fly.

Since I beleive he’s imaginary, I expect nothing to result from his actions. If I’m wrong, and there is a Vig, then we will get information from whatever happens.

Now, how are we determining who he targets?

1637

I’m cornfuckled here. You ask me not to block you (which I can’t do)
You’re still saying that you think the players that many think (or in one case know)are ‘bad guys’ don’t ping you and (to me) tried to smudge the players that seem to be Town oriented
Thanks for the put down on my neutering myself btw.. It ain’t much but my first (and only TYVM) scan did confirm a Town player. That gives us 2 semi confirmed at the time when I reveal. NOT completely worthless but in hindsight I would have played it different= and will in future perhaps

I find you a bit slippery. I think you voting me was weird and it seemed weak.
I’m going to take a closer look at your game play

1638

Sorry I’m being such a tool. Y’all are awesome. Bye. :frowning:

NETA: Jesus, I even sound like a tool apologizing for being a tool. I swear I’m not fishing for sympathy.

1639

Would you care to elaborate?

1640

Oh, 6PM August 6th…

I was a day early with my woe is me and my doom saying.
@pedescribe- if you’re doing the lurking thing on purpose to make a point, okay, we get the point. If you’re doing it because you’re busy… that’s a shame.

If you’re townie we are going to need you though.