De'endee Mafia

[Normal_Phase]

These are all from Red.

“I still don’t believe that septimus is bulletproof as he claims, on the contrary I think he is being protected.”

"If he’s being protected, then he would want to purport that he’s not protected a second time, as to possibly draw the vig to shoot at him again. "

"2. Septimus was protected from a non passive source (possibly himself).

Of two unlikely cases, which is more likely?

… I believe the second is more likely "

Next time both of you might want to check your own quoted sources.

[ShadowFacts]

@Normal_Phase

Next time both of you might want to check your own quoted sources.

Um, I hate to break this to you, but those quotes are from the two posts that SP already linked to. Though I like how you spread it all out into different quotes to make it look like more.

This is all really besides the point, though. Of course Red is going to say he thinks septimus was protected. He posted a alleged PM that explicitly said that his target was protected. What the heck else do you expect him to say? It doesn’t answer SP’s question about why he targeted pedescribe instead of me, which is a pretty good question.

[Askthepizzaguy]

Briefly-

What Suburban noticed about the Beguiler description does seem to imply strongly the ability to avoid investigation results (Lightfoot) but also the phrase “stay alive”, indicating perhaps that the beguiler is too elusive to be killed. (Red Skeezix)

The description of Red Skeezix’ attack on septimus reads that he had trouble killing the guy, not that something protected him.

This makes Red Skeezix and Lightfoot’s claims both trustworthy in my mind.

I believe the scums were blocking Skeezix last night.

That’s either ShadowFacts or they have a scum roleblocker.

Is that simple enough and does it make sense enough? Do you concur, dear reader?

[Askthepizzaguy]

@Astral_Rejection

The sun had long since set, and a few adventurers were helping themselves to the town’s dwindling ale stock.

“So what’s a Beguiler, anyway?”

“Hell if I know. Anybody got a monster manual?”

A mousy-looking Mage sheepishly raised his hand.

---

"The beguiler relies mostly on spells that cloud the mind and fool the senses. Beguilers are* adept at staying alive and unnoticed**, and some can even use their magical abilities to appear honest and trustworthy…"

• Bertram’s Magical Monster Compendium, Vol. 4.*

(Septimus was a godfather.)

That indicates two abilities.

http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=14083074&postcount=1261

Red Skeezix’ description:

Class: Warblade
Alignment: Defenders of De’endee
Role: Assassin
Win Condition: You win when all threats to the Defenders of De’endee have been vanquished.
Powers: You may kill one player each night.

You return home this morning tired from unsuccessfully pursuing your target all night. At every turn he was able to evade your attempts at his life.

(Your target was protected)

You awake, refreshed and alert, still dressed for your assassination. You glance down at your boots, frowning… you don’t remember being too tired to take them off. In fact, you don’t remember much of anything. You sit up cautiously, trying to piece together what had happened. Your knives, tucked away in their sheathes, are perfectly clean, without a hint of blood on them.

(You were blocked)

This is the thing. The Godfather-beguiler role clearly implies two abilities; the ability to evade death and the ability to evade detection.

That means Lightfoot and Red Skeezix are both being honest about their roles. This information comes from the game host and is not ambiguous.

Whatever you do with ShadowFacts today, LEAVE RED SKEEZIX ALONE.

[Askthepizzaguy]

@ShadowFacts

I really have no idea what you are talking about. Not a clue. You’re going to have to re-state what you’re talking about if you want me to respond substantively.

You awake sweaty, sore and tired. There is a large welt on your forehead and you are surrounded by the detritus of broken furniture. While you cannot clearly remember the events of last evening, the lack of blood on your knives tells you that you did not accomplish your task.

(You were blocked)

ShadowFacts, look at the description of the second block.

The first block indicates clearly he was blocked by magic, which means you did it as you claimed.

The SECOND block indicated that Red Skeezix was blocked by getting his butt handed to him by a Lord of Slaughter.

** You didn’t block Skeezix last night, Skeezix has the proof, and misinterpreted the results.**

You know I was doing nothing last night because you blocked me.

Red knows he was blocked but assumed you did it.

** We have a paranoid doctor, ladies and gentlemen.**

ShadowFacts and Red Skeezix are who they claim to be. ShadowFacts could still be a Lord of Slaughter, but ShadowFacts DID NOT block Red Skeezix.

It’s possible… possible… that ShadowFacts blocked Lightfoot.

Lightfoot, I need the descriptions of your attempts to scan and the descriptions of the failure.

Are the descriptions consistent?

if so, then ShadowFacts didn’t block Lightfoot either, and instead did as he suggested and blocked me.

As such, we need to lynch someone besides ShadowFacts and Red Skeezix today.

Your thoughts? Anyone? Anyone?

Bueller?

[Askthepizzaguy]

If Red Skeezix was trying to frame ShadowFacts, the description would have been consistent.

The fact that this inconsistency was present and not mentioned by Red Skeezix tells me that his results are **real **and he **misinterpreted **them. Otherwise he wouldn’t have written them this way, and he wouldn’t have assumed a magic-user was using brute force to roleblock him.

I have to conclude that Red is who he says he is.

If I’m correct on that, you owe me a beer, Red. ShadowFacts, I’m especially interested in your response to this.

[Askthepizzaguy]

So, the final piece to the puzzle. The 64 thousand dollar question.

**Why, if the Lords of Slaughter were blocking the claimed assassin, would they also attack Lightfoot, who they know is protected by the paranoid doctor?

There are two answers.

1. If the paranoid doc removes protection, Lightfoot dies. This way, additional scan results are not possible.

2. They could have just said look, no vig kill from Red Skeezix, pressure on ShadowFacts and Red Skeezix… if we don’t kill, they’ll lynch one of them.

But even better than that, is actively trying to kill Lightfoot also. So that’s why they did option number one.
What do I win, O mighty game lords?

[ShadowFacts]

@Askthepizzaguy

Briefly-

What Suburban noticed about the Beguiler description does seem to imply strongly the ability to avoid investigation results (Lightfoot) but also the phrase “stay alive”, indicating perhaps that the beguiler is too elusive to be killed. (Red Skeezix)

The description of Red Skeezix’ attack on septimus reads that he had trouble killing the guy, not that something protected him.

This makes Red Skeezix and Lightfoot’s claims both trustworthy in my mind.

I believe the scums were blocking Skeezix last night.

That’s either ShadowFacts or they have a scum roleblocker.

Is that simple enough and does it make sense enough? Do you concur, dear reader?

I do not concur. The “color” description of what happened is followed by the much more explicit: “Your target was protected.” If you’re going to take that PM at face value, septimus was protected. I have to run, so I can’t get to the rest of your posts, but it is a big mistake to draw conclusions from color rather than from explicitly-stated moderator results. (All that said, let me reiterate that I believe that PM is a complete fake.)

[Askthepizzaguy]

Yes, ShadowFacts, “protected”, but not protected by whom or what. Self-protection (bulletproof) is still protection. I think we’ve all assumed that protection would read differently if the source was a doctor or the source was the beguiler itself. But that’s too much information for a result from a vigilante. That’s a bad assumption!

** The vigilante shouldn’t be able to conclusively determine who protected septimus… knowing it was a self-protect or a protect is as good as a kind of investigation.

That’s beyond the means of a vigilante. However, the **color **does provide clues! And these clues are intentional, or else there wouldn’t be a separate description for magic and physical roleblocks. You have to use your noggin to determine the truth, the game lords didn’t just hand us the solution. And I have a really simple solution for you.

O Mighty Game Lords, I pray thee answer this hypothetical question which in no way confirms or denies any claim presently made by a player of some character in this game scenario: Should someone be “protected”, doth this imply any further information? Or does it simply mean the kill failed, but no indication as to the source of the protection? If you cannot answer this question here, perhaps the player of some character could seek clarification privately, O Mighty Game Lords.

That means you, Red Skeezix. Go on, ask the question to your god.

[Askthepizzaguy]

@Suburban_Plankton

In either case, jumping on a Scum-lynch bandwagon is useful to Scum, and I think that we will find the Scum’s ‘designated killer’ somewhere on the list of **Septimus **voters. In light of that:

vote Weedy

I see…

Well, I was about to conclude that we needed to look on the septimus wagon for our next target. I was going to suggest you, actually, in spite of your help. Being helpful is one way of reducing suspicion on oneself. However, I’m handing out all KINDS of benefit of the doubt today. I’m far too sure of myself for it to be a safe thing.

But yeah. The scums were probably on the septimus wagon. And, if you’re townie, you arrived at the right conclusion, and if you’re scum, you’re removing your cover and bringing your lynch ever closer by voting for Weedy.

I would rather lynch you or Inner Stickler, today, actually. But, first, let’s make darn sure we aren’t about to make a big, big, big mistake, just after preventing two even bigger mistakes by lynching Shadow and the Skeezix, or Skeezix and then Shadow.

I need to make darn sure we aren’t lynching our paranoid doctor.
unvote: ShadowFacts
unvote: Suburban Plankton

And whoever said for me to name some suspects was right, I think right now we need to do a full reset on this whole round, and start from the very beginning.

Forget the Shadow/Skeezix kerfuffle and assume Shadow, Skeezix, Lightfoot, and myself are all cleared and accounted for.
** My notes, updated again:**

[spoiler]
I think are proven or have massively strong evidence in favor of:

**Askthepizzaguy - ** I should be cleared by now. Scanned by Lightfoot.
Lightfoot **- **Strong claim. Beguiler had counter-abilities.
Red Skeezix - The most dangerous role in the game. Massive evidence in his favor.
**ShadowFacts **- Benefit of the doubt, doesn’t appear to be blocking Skeezix last night.

I think these have strong evidence in favor of:

Normal Phase**- Very townie behavior. Was against septimus the whole time.
Stanislaus- **Very townie behavior. Was against septimus the whole time.

I am not sure there are strong cases here.

USCDiver- Votes for and against septimus were inverted from what I’d expect the scum team to do, didn’t fit the game plan. I’ll re-examine.
gnarlycharlie- Generally townie read, doesn’t flinch at all. I’ll re-examine.
Hirka T’Bawa - Voting behavior doesn’t indicate scum. I get townie reads, but I’ll re-examine.

I have to look at the case:

**MentalGuy **- Although Normal wants him dead very badly it would seem. I will re-examine.

**There are cases to be made:**

pedescribe- Not helping. Deserves to die, as such. But is he scum?

Weedy- Not out of the woods yet, but I like her responses. That said, worth pressuring.

  **Suburban Plankton**- My position has always been that Plankton is scum. It's a position I am prepared to re-examine.

Inner Stickler- The case is that Inner Stickler has played the townie role and bussed septimus, but there are subtle indicators which show that Inner Stickler is playing a dual game. I feel very confident on this one.

choie- Prophylactic defense arguments, duality, defends septimus or top suspects, attacks Lightfoot, Normal Phase, or myself, activity drop-off after accusation. Since choie is delaying her votes, that indicates nervousness and her other behavior is annoyance.[/spoiler]

I like where this is going. I like it a lot.

Okay, it’s time to stop laying down on the job, and stop wasting time, Craigey-waigey. Lazy townies will scamper and scamper, but in the end, the Langoliers will get them. And they don’t just get them. They get them… and they EAT them. We need to get back on the right track and avoid being eaten by the Langoliers.

So I’m going to go do some work that might actually be productive instead of hammering ShadowFacts over the head with my clown shoes.

[Askthepizzaguy]

vote: choie
vote: Inner Stickler

choie’s behavior, votes, accusations, and disposition all indicate that something is very wrong.

Briefly on choie:

1. Prophylactic defense strategy: In the beginning of the game she warded off criticism by being her biggest critic. When accused, her defense was to agree with the criticism. It’s a very, very effective tactic.
   2)** Vote pattern**. She’s been voting all the wrong people, IMO.
2. Activity drop-off. She appears to be trying to avoid being the discussion target for the day by simply not taking part in it.
3. Far, far too annoyed at all the wrong people for it to be genuine IMO. Folks like Shadow and Suburban who might have better reasons to be annoyed at me are still talking to me like I’m a person. Again, why be annoyed at Normal? Why wasn’t she annoyed at special ed? Doesn’t make consistent sense.
4. Waiting to vote. Scums do this when the townies are making mistakes. They allow the mistakes to happen instead of doing the townie thing and accusing someone.
   Briefly on Inner Stickler:

Do a full re-read of all his posts, in order, and pay attention to the timing of all his moves. If you were Stickler, and you were scum, and you were trying to bus an exposed septimus for the townie cred, when would you vote for septimus, and when would you try to not bus him, to cause further damage to the town?

1. You’d bus him when it looks like he cannot escape. You join that wagon. You even follow through.
2. You’d spare him if the votes are close and you can plausibly argue for someone else’s lynch. No need to bus your godfather if you can actually get away with saving him.

Inner Stickler did both of these things, and every move that Stickler makes reads as townie… but also as something a scum would do. It’s absolutely perfect.
I’ll examine everyone else and re-examine choie and Stickler to try to find exonerating evidence for them, but those are my two top suspects and I suggest that they be looked at strongly by everyone. Just look, that’s all I ask.

[Astral_Rejection]

@Askthepizzaguy

O Mighty Game Lords, I pray thee answer this hypothetical question which in no way confirms or denies any claim presently made by a player of some character in this game scenario: Should someone be “protected”, doth this imply any further information? Or does it simply mean the kill failed, but no indication as to the source of the protection? If you cannot answer this question here, perhaps the player of some character could seek clarification privately, O Mighty Game Lords.

I ain’t sayin’ nuthin’ 'bout no hypotheticals.

[Askthepizzaguy]

@Astral_Rejection

I ain’t sayin’ nuthin’ 'bout no hypotheticals.

Go get 'em Red Skeezix. Make it less hypothetical and more private.

[Suburban_Plankton]

Pizza,

I’m going to disagree with you on both **choie **and Inner Stickler (I bet you’re surprised to hear that!)

All of the things that you find suspicious in **choie’s **play are the same things that you would expect in a new player who didn’t come in as prepared for the game as they thought they were.

First, things are far more difficult as a player than as a spectator, leading to the repeated “I’m just a newbie” posts, and the acceptance of criticism from all the “older, wiser” players. The annoyance, the ‘personalization’, and the drop off in play all fit the profile, and the voting pattern suggests that she doesn’t fully understand how her votes are going to be judged by the other players.

None of this, in my mind, suggests she’s Scum, only that the’s a new player, and she’s in over her head. On the other hand, nothing here suggests she is Town, either. My one thought there is that if she were Scum, I would hope that her fellow Scum players would be ‘coaching’ her on the Scum board, and that she would take the bulk of her frustration out there, rather than here.

As for Inner Stickler, it seems like your argument is “All of his actions make him appear Townie, so it must be a ruse…no actual Townie could play that well!”
I certainly can’t refute that logic, but I also don’t see anything that makes your interpretation more likely to be correct than the alternate interpretation (if it quacks like a duck…it’s a duck).
Of the two, I’d be more likely to believe **choie **is Scum, because she can’t turn to her play to defend herself. Inner Stickler can…though I understand that’s precisely why you are voting for him.

[Askthepizzaguy]

@Suburban_Plankton

Pizza,

I’m going to disagree with you on both **choie **and Inner Stickler (I bet you’re surprised to hear that!)

All of the things that you find suspicious in **choie’s **play are the same things that you would expect in a new player who didn’t come in as prepared for the game as they thought they were.

No. She disagreed with most everyone on why septimus was scummy; the literal last minute vote save. Even a newbie knows that doesn’t feel quite right.

And, she worded her disagreement as “all these experienced players say one thing, and I sort of agree” or words to that effect, and then directly went into the contradiction. And then later on, she even agrees that she wouldn’t have made the save at the last minute, which indicates she knows exactly why the timing is suspect, not the save itself.

First, things are far more difficult as a player than as a spectator, leading to the repeated “I’m just a newbie” posts, and the acceptance of criticism from all the “older, wiser” players. The annoyance, the ‘personalization’, and the drop off in play all fit the profile, and the voting pattern suggests that she doesn’t fully understand how her votes are going to be judged by the other players.

You’re not giving her nearly enough credit.

She’s tough, she’s sharp, and she’s focused. She’s also seen what happens in these games. I don’t buy for one single second that anything that happened in this game surprised her, and I don’t buy that she doesn’t understand how people will react to her.

Her responses and defenses indicate a highly skilled and experienced manipulator. That means by definition, she’s a master at knowing how people will react to her… and then *bending *said reaction.

She made me go away for how many rounds? I consider myself somewhat stubborn and tenacious, and she completely mind-bleeped me.

She’s not a pushover and I highly object to your defense of her.

None of this, in my mind, suggests she’s Scum, only that the’s a new player, and she’s in over her head. On the other hand, nothing here suggests she is Town, either. My one thought there is that if she were Scum, I would hope that her fellow Scum players would be ‘coaching’ her on the Scum board, and that she would take the bulk of her frustration out there, rather than here.

She is new, but new doesn’t indicate scum or townie. It’s not how you’d determine anything.

As for Inner Stickler, it seems like your argument is “All of his actions make him appear Townie, so it must be a ruse…no actual Townie could play that well!”
I certainly can’t refute that logic, but I also don’t see anything that makes your interpretation more likely to be correct than the alternate interpretation (if it quacks like a duck…it’s a duck).

Here is the logical case:

1. Scum would behave exactly this way, if they chose a bussing strategy.
2. However, town would behave this way as well, coincidentally.

So, my gut tells me which one it is. My experience says that the coincidence is less likely to happen, and you and I both agree, the scums bussed septimus.

If it’s not you, it’s Weedy, or Inner Stickler. So there you are.

I already questioned Weedy about it. I can link back to those answers if you like. Her explanation made much more sense and the timing wasn’t as perfect.

You agree with the case because it’s the same **generic **case you’re using on Weedy. It fits better on Stickler, due to the specifics.

Of the two, I’d be more likely to believe **choie **is Scum, because she can’t turn to her play to defend herself. Inner Stickler can…though I understand that’s precisely why you are voting for him.

I am fine with you disagreeing on me and challenging my reasoning. It’s probably the only reason why we make any progress this round if Shadow and Red are both townies.

Do you realize what a massive bullet we just dodged?

[Askthepizzaguy]

Also: “If it quacks like a duck, it’s a duck” is the surest way to consistently lose mafia games.

If the mafia didn’t know how to quack like a duck, they’d never win.

[Normal_Phase]

The first block indicates clearly he was blocked by magic, which means you did it as you claimed.

Link please? I’m too tired to look it up tonight.

I do not understand the play of this putative paranoid doc. Not a single night free for Lightfoot, and despite being exposed to all your arguments where if they exist, it’s possible both SF and Red are not lying, they have not stepped forward. Don’t get me wrong, I understand self-preservation and confirmed-townie preservation, but this player has hypothetically stopped two night kills, giving us an entire extra mislynch to play with – then is willing to turn around and let us throw it away again twice over on a pair of townies? Does not compute.

Anyway, link please plus hopefully LF will have a response by the time I wake up.

I am not liking ShadowFacts’ responses to pretty much anything.

[Askthepizzaguy]

@Inner_Stickler

Lemme guess, Shadowfacts is gonna come barreling in here, telling us he blocked Skeezix again and will we please lynch him.

Well, anyone could have predicted that. Maybe you were counting on it.

@Inner_Stickler

The difference is that I find that less telling about skeezix and more telling about Shadowfacts.

Inner Stickler: **If you are the paranoid doctor or the town coroner, claim now please.
**
If you are not, I am locking both my votes on you.

The quotes here suggest that you know Red Skeezix is innocent… and so nudging us toward lynching ShadowFacts. Except what happens when Shadow is lynched and flips townie? Oops I was wrong, guess it was Red Skeezix all along.

Block Red Skeezix tonight.

Lynch Red Skeezix tomorrow.

Oh my word. How did we lynch two townies?

This is a disaster. Woe is town. Woe is town.

Maybe it is Suburban Plankton who is behind all this.

Help us, Pizzaguy… help us lynch Suburban Plankton too.

D’oh! What happened! We had this game in the bag!

[ul]
[li]Why haven’t you placed a vote yet, Inner Stickler? The round is now two days in, and nothing?[/li][/ul]

[ul]
[li]Why didn’t you place a vote on the round you lynched septimus until the double-vote near the end of the round? Are you waiting for the town to make mistakes before you commit yourself?[/li][/ul]

[ul]
[li]Why were you the first to mention the idea of a paranoid doctor? Might there be someone within your ranks who can kill through the paranoid doctor’s protection?[/li][/ul]

[ul]
[li]Why were you the first to mention the idea of a godfather?[/li][/ul]

[ul]
[li]Why did you assume there was a town vigilante when there was no vigilante kill?[/li][/ul]

You know too much. You wait to see what we do too much. You were there when septimus saved himself the first time. You were the first to post after the lynch happened. You distanced yourself from him saying it stunk of machinations. You then felt safe to vote him early, and yet your real vote at the end of the round was a double-vote on TexCat.

You’re not the paranoid doctor, don’t even try. I don’t want to hear it.

And if you claim town coroner, you risk being counter-claimed. So go ahead.

Tell me why all the pieces fit into place so precisely. Tell me why you bussed septimus only to spare him. Tell me why you waited for someone else to make the winning case on septimus to actually lock your votes on him.

You’re awesome. It makes me sad that I must do this. I don’t want to do this. I’d love to see your cunning work lead to victory. And, it might have, and it may still.

Anyway. My vote lock on you pending your response.

Paranoid Doctor, Town Coroner: DO NOT COUNTERCLAIM HIM. I KNOW.

[Askthepizzaguy]

You awake, refreshed and alert, still dressed for your assassination. You glance down at your boots, frowning… you don’t remember being too tired to take them off. In fact, you don’t remember much of anything. You sit up cautiously, trying to piece together what had happened. Your knives, tucked away in their sheathes, are perfectly clean, without a hint of blood on them.

(You were blocked)

First block. This is done by magic, as it seems Red Skeezix simply fell asleep.

He’s refreshed and alert. He slept all night. No damage. That means magic.

You awake sweaty, sore and tired. There is a large welt on your forehead and you are surrounded by the detritus of broken furniture. While you cannot clearly remember the events of last evening, the lack of blood on your knives tells you that you did not accomplish your task.

(You were blocked)

He cannot remember the events of last night, the knives weren’t tucked in their sheaths, he is sweaty, sore, and tired. Large welt indicates physical damage.

That means not magic.

Also, the bolding was mine. Don’t read into that.

[Suburban_Plankton]

@Askthepizzaguy

First block. This is done by magic, as it seems Red Skeezix simply fell asleep.

He’s refreshed and alert. He slept all night. No damage. That means magic.

He cannot remember the events of last night, the knives weren’t tucked in their sheaths, he is sweaty, sore, and tired. Large welt indicates physical damage.

That means not magic.

It was a long day at work, and I’ve got a bunch of stuff to do at home tonight, so I don’t have time to go back to see which of Red’s attempted kills these quotes refer to. Can you clarify?

Also, how much of your case are you willing to make dependent on color? Around these parts, the general rule is “color is just color”.