Democratic Candidate KERRY has a good chance ?

Great Debates
1

Having officially stated he will be a presidential nominee for the democratic, is Kerry a strong contender ?

I have read the basic stuff... Ketchup money, military service and the criticism to Bush. Somehow he lacks a bit of charisma... or enough charisma to me. Thou his service record and what he said shows some promise. I am curious to know what the americans think of him, since we non-US are less exposed to news about him and other contenders.

  1. First mention your general political position. (Eg. Bushite/Liberal)

  2. So is he a strong contender ? Explain why or why not.

  3. Is the US media giving him air time and good exposure ?

  4. How much of his “speech” is about attacking Bush ?

  5. Any interesting proposals ?

  • Please do note what is personal opinion and what is “general” opinion in case you do comment further. This thread is more to give me a feeling for the democratic wannabes.
2

I’m a progressive who has been following the presidential campaign since, well, the day Al Gore gave his concession speech three years ago.

Of the current contenders, John Kerry, Howard Dean, and Dick Gephardt are the three with any shot of winning the nomination.

In Kerry’s favor are his financial base, campaign organization, and political experience - nearly 20 years in Washington, and nearly 30 in public service. His long Senate record of advocating the causes of traditional Democratic constituencies (women, labor, minorities, environmentalists) will come in handy as the primaries approach. The biggest mark against him is the fact that Howard Dean has been winning the media war for now, based on a very savvy Internet-driven grassroots campaign. In addition, Dean has long been spending money on television advertising, something that Kerry only began this week. But there are still concerns over Dean’s ability to appeal to traditional Democratic voters, beyond the white, upper-middle class demographic.

With his official announcement, paired with Thursday’s first official Democratic debate among candidates, Kerry has the chance to shift the momentum in his favor. Most Americans (2/3 of whom couldn’t name any contender – despite Howard Dean’s summer blitz – according to a recent poll) are only now turning their attention to politics; Labor Day has traditionally marked the end of summer and elections, for many Americans, are considered autumnal events.

Kerry’s speeches offer specific criticisms of George Bush’s failures, as well as constructive remedies. He has taken on Bush long before September 11, and has continued to do so ever since, particularly regarding the “war on terror” – albeit without the indiscriminate anger that Howard Dean has channeled effectively into his campaign’s organizing principle.

Of particular note is Kerry’s campaign proposal to roll back the Bush tax cuts for those making over $200,000 a year in order to fully fund health care and other quality of life programs. Specifically, Kerry differs from Dean and Gephardt in that the latter two would rescind all the Bush tax cuts, including those for the middle class (which were originally designed and fought for by Democrats), such that many struggling families could find themselves paying an additional $2000 dollars in taxes.

3

For some reason, Senators almost never get elected president unless they go thru the VP office first. Americans seem to prefer Governors. Kerry is also a New England blue-blood. That background doesn’t play well in the South and West.

Dean has all the charisma that the others seem to lack. He’s got a lot of momentum going and Kerry seems to be trying to draft on that mo by taking a Dean-like position on Iraq. Too bad he voted for the resolution authorizing the war.

I don’t think he has much of a chance getting the Dem nomination, and almost no chance of beating Bush if he does.

The draft Hillary movement might be gaining strength. I’d actually like to see that match-up.

4

I wouldn’t. There’s still too many visceral Hil-haters out there; Bush’s landslide would be even bigger.

Anyway, I lived half my life in New England and Kerry was largely seen as a good guy. He is a blue blood, true, but his family is not particularly wealthy anymore. He’s had an interesting life and his heroism in Vietnam earned enough respect that his subsequent protesting of the war was very effective; he wasn’t some spoiled hippie or sheltered academic, he was a real vet. He’s seen as savvy and occasionally ruthless as any other politican and yet, like perpetual senior Senator Ted Kennedy, people think that he believes in what he works for.

Like Mike Dukakis, unfortunately, he’s much more charismatic in person and in smaller groups than on TV and with giant crowds (I’ve seen them both in Boston). He’s also very intelligent but his speeches, as opposed to interviews, come across as a little plodding.

He has a good chance; right now I’d put him above Gephardt, who has been running for President so often people may think he’s already served a term. Gephardt IMO has the Traditional Dem slot, with his union endorsements and longterm Washington service; Dean has the Sparkly New Guy-Down with The Young People slot, but I’m worried he’ll say something unfortunate, peak too soon, or appeal too narrowly to the young and trendy and fail to get the elderly. One of the mantras of American politics is that old people vote in great numbers, and you have to address their issues or you don’t have a chance.

5

Dick Gephardt seems to be a no-winner by the way he wasnt barely mentioned by Saxman… :slight_smile:

Question: Where are Dean and Kerry from specifically ? Kerry is new england from what has been mentioned… Is there still this tendency that presidents coming from the south will continue ? Any democrats from the southern states ?

Kerry does seem a bit boorish from his photos… pity. He seems overall the more solid candidate until now. How do specific electorates view him ? (republicans especially).

6

Kerry is from Massachusets and Dean from Vermont. Lieberman is from Connecticut. Lots of Dems from New England!

Edwards is from the south.

You might want to visit their web sites as a better way to get that type of info about them.

Gephardt is an old style Dem-- populist, union type guy. I’m not sure why the Dems would nominate a repeat loser like him.

7

IMO, Kerry’s biggest trouble is that he looks like a freeze-dried Jay Leno.

8

What Michael Ellis said – in short, that these days, unfortunately, a big part of anyone’s electability is how they look on television – except that I would have said he looks like he should be working the New Jersey fair circuit fronting a low-rent Bruce Springsteen tribute band.

9

I like Kerry… but he does look like he just had some kind of drug overdose…

What about Lieberman ? Any chances ? Why would people elect him ?

10

Lieberman already won the popular vote once :wink:

He’s sort of low-key and Bush is a brawler, so the latter comes across as more assertive which is a key part of “seeming presidential”. While I do believe America would elect a Jewish President, I’m not sure they’re ready to elect an Orthodox Jewish one. He’s also seen in some circles as "Bush Lite’, being one of the more conservative of the candidates. There are a great many longtime Dems who feel left out of the left-leaning mainstream of the party–ones who are uncomfortable with abortion or expanded gay rights or free trade policy (since it affects their jobs), but not so uncomfortable they’d cross over and vote for a Repub, and Lieberman might pick up some of them. He also has the advantage of being relatively hawkish about the Iraqi War (even though, as Dean never tires of pointing out, all the candidates who are currently in Congress voted for it too) which is much more in tune with the electorate than an anti-war stance right now. AFAIK he’s pretty honest and scandal-free.

No, I don’t think he’ll get the nomination but I like him a lot and might make a statement with my vote, which since I live in New York State will be pretty moot anyway. :frowning: By the time our primary rolls around, the winner is already picking out the champagne.

11

NPR’s Morning Edition ran an excellent series of candidate interviews: http://www.npr.org/programs/specials/democrats2004/index.html. Goes deeper than a standard stump speech.

Some observations -

  1. Dean’s poll numbers would seem to be a reflection of a great deal of media coverage. The media covers him because his bluster makes for good ratings. Nuanced policy alternatives do not make for good ratings. Kerry will have greater visibility, and hence viability, when (and if) media coverage reflects actual issues and policies.
  2. It would appear to me that none of the so-called “front-runners” has much traction with minority voters. I can’t picture an Hispanic woman in southern California caring enough about the Dean-Kerry question to even show up at the polls. The Dean campaign cannot defeat GW by appealing only to upper-middle-class computer-savvy white activists.
  3. After enduring several hours of CSPAN over the last several months following the candidates, Kerry seems head and shoulders above Dean as far as articulating real policy. But inciting extremists is more sexy. As long as people are more entertained by the Howard Deans and Judge Moores of the world, nobody is going to hear Kerry’s message.
12

<wonders how long it will be before " Kerry had a report on security problems at Logan months before 9/11, and did nothing" commercials will start airing>

You know it’s going to be brought up, even if it’s proven to be untrue. It was all over the news (at least from Boston/Manchester stations) for weeks following 9/11 with the FAA report-writer claiming he gave warnings to Kerry in the summer of 2001. It may well have just been ass-covering on that guy’s part, but I’m surely not the only one who’ll remember the allegation when primary time draws nearer.

13

I found this Slate article that focuses on Kerry but does a fair bit of comparison between Dean and him was interesting :

http://slate.msn.com/id/2087839/

"Two days ago on Meet the Press, Tim Russert quoted a critique of Kerry by pollster John Zogby: "He can give you competing arguments on all the major issues and have you walk away and say, ‘Yeah, but where does he stand?’ "

14 
hehe... a true politician ! Never be decisive of anything....
15

Actually, one of the reasons that so many people like Bush is because he IS decisive. And maybe that’s why people who dislike what he decides get so mad.

16

I’ll just say that after watching some interviews, I would vote for Kerry above any other candidate right now.

17

Will the democrats rally behind their “chosen” candidate once he is chosen ? Or will their be divisions over the choice ?

18

Nah - he looks FRENCH!

19

Yes, Kerry has an excellent chance. My reasons for believing this are as follows:

  1. I’m from Massachusetts
  2. I’m from Massachusetts
  3. I’m from Massachusetts
  4. I’m from Massachusetts
  5. I’m from Massachusetts

:smiley:

Barry

20

Kerry isn’t really Mr. Polarization Guy–Dean or Lieberman would create greater rifts than he would. However, we Democrats are known for public self-flagellation so you won’t exactly see the happy unified army that Bush will be having at the Repub convention.