Extrapolating outcomes from a midterm onto a presidential election is messy, but for the first time since 1988, it’s plausible that one political party is going to capture 400 electoral votes in a presidential election. The path is there.
If the 2028 Democratic candidate carries all of the red/swing states that just flipped blue in this past election or have gone blue at some point recently - Texas, Arizona, Nevada, Michigan, Wisconsin, North Carolina, Maine, Iowa, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Missouri and Georgia - they’re over 380 already. Getting Florida would propel them to over 410. That’s not even taking into account Nebraska’s weird single prone-to-defect electoral vote.
What’s going to help Democrats is that Trump isn’t going to make himself any less obnoxious between now and Nov-2028. He just can’t help it or change his ways. He will not do anything that will improve Republicans’ chances in any way.
I don’t think we know that for sure. He may decline in health. He may be told to just focus on things he likes - ballrooms, arches, etc. He may die.
Either way, there is absolutely a chance now that the GOP jettisons him pretty explicitly, at least with respect to 2028. Whether he will allow that is an open question. I tend to agree that his ego (and senility) won’t let him.
I’m also not sure why you have Missouri on your list… maybe you meant Kansas?
Electoral optimism has always been the party’s worst enemy. Democratic voters have to have the shit scared out of them before enough of them go to the polls to create a landslide.
Chances are, the GOP will dig up another celebrity candidate with name recognition that no serious Democratic candidate can match. A good portion of voters in Presidential elections are, frankly, idiots who just want to be entertained.
The OP’s optimism is wildly unrealistic. Could it happen? It’s possible. But the Ds will need a lot more luck and organizational skill and determination and singular focus than they’ve shown in 30 years. That shit doesn’t grow like weeds; it takes years to carefully nurture to maturity. We don’t have years. We have a few months.
Yeah, Missouri is pretty red outside the biggest cities, and even there, there’s still a lot of racism and sexism.
I don’t think we can extrapolate much from the big blue wave except that people are fed up with high prices and war. While Trump’s brand may be tarnished, probably irreparably, conservatives haven’t really switched parties or come around to liberal ideas. They’re just tired of paying so much and getting “but my new ballroom!” as a response from the government.
That seems to me the biggest issue Republicans will have in 2028. Do they run against the Trump record and risk angering the MAGA base, or do they stick with Trump and ride him all the way to rock bottom? Having to make that choice means Democrats start as the favorites, but 400 does seem unrealistic to me.
It is within the realm of possibility that the Electoral College total will be a moot exercise if the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact is enacted by many of the newly Blue states.