I would be surprised if there were higher turnout for Dems in a midterm election. Hillary lost because the black vote didn’t turn out for her automatically as they did for Obama, and outrage against Trump didn’t motivate them to turn out in 2016. Since Trump isn’t running in 2018, it might work that way again.
Hillary isn’t going to run in 2020. She lost to Trump once (yeah yeah popular vote blah blah who cares she lost) and there won’t be anything she can say in 2020 that she hasn’t said already. And the stuff about running a progressive candidate is just SDMB wishful thinking. The US electorate is well to the right of the SDMB - that’s why the GOP controls the House and Senate and most state legislatures.
The best chance the Dems have is if Trump goes down in flames, and he seems to be immune to ordinary scandal-mongering. Of course he hasn’t taken office yet, but if the Dems run a campaign against his Twitter feed I suspect they won’t get very far.
I hope the Dems don’t have any plans for 2020 yet. A lot can happen in 4 years, and we’ve seen what happens when you pick someone you assume will win and crowd out the field for someone to emerge organically. Give it a rest for a couple years and see how things play out.
Meanwhile, Gavin Newsom is waiting in the wings… And he’s promised to tone down the hair product, just for Tamerlane!
Someone new has to emerge. They can’t be reeking of liberal elitism, so that leaves out Dems from the northeast. So pretty much no one based on their merits. The only hope the Democratic party has right now is terrible failures by Trump and the GOP congress. That already provides much more hope than any potential candidate they have.
Exactly. The last four elections were lost by candidates who were the presumptive nominees four years in advance. We need to nominate our 2020 candidate within the context of 2020 politics.
She’s no longer “next in line” and nobody is ever going to see her as unbeatable anymore. She’s done because she’s done, whether she runs or not has no bearing on that.
Hillary came within a hair of winning in 2016. If Trump’s administration is a failure - or if the economic cycle happens to be on a downturn in 2020 - she would be a big favorite to win.
You people who think Hillary is going to run again are idiots. It will not happen. She’s done.
The reason she got the nomination in 2016 is that she spent the last 3-4 years becoming the inevitable candidate. That’s not going to work in 2020.
And although she wanted to BE president more than anything, she clearly loathes RUNNING for president. Kind of the exact opposite of Trump. To run in 2020 she’d need to spend another grinding 3 years campaigning, and she doesn’t have the stomach for it.
I hope you’re right, but I’m not so sure. I was writing this the other day as an OP, but I might as well just post it here:
*I left the last election more or less assuming her political career was over. But in the last few days, as I’ve been discussing this with my friends, I’m starting to get worried.
I can literally (ha!) feel the gears grinding in her head (I know I can do it; I know I can do it…) as she just can’t shake the idea that SHE should be the first woman president. Then I started to think about the whole process next time around. I can see us in early 2018 as the media starts putting out polls, and everyone wants to know who the front runner is. Well, who else but Hillary? You know the press is going to include her in any multiple choice poll of potential candidates. Somehow our collective wisdom ends up being collective dumbassedness as we are drawn to “The Names” as moths are drawn to a flame. So, folks we check the “Hillary” box, and she’ll float to the top again.
Bernie is going to be in his late 70s, but Hillary will only be as old has he was last time. Actually, a few years less (IIRC, Bernie is 6 years old than Hill). She’s going to suck all the oxygen out of the room again and she’s just not going to be able to resist throwing her hat in the ring when her poll numbers are so high. That is my fear.
Just to be clear, I’m not saying I see this as 100% likely. But if I had to put a number on it, I’d say a bit > 50%. I hope I’m wrong, but I fear I’m not.
She also came within a few hairs of not even being nominated. Once the Sanders supporters realize that (a) they have to start early, and (b) it helps to pack Congress with not just Democrats, but Democrats they can count on backing Bernie’s agenda, he has to be the front-runner not just for the nomination but for the Presidency in 2020.
Tru., which is why Tim Kaine is perfect. Boring, scandal free, has already given the GOP hate machine a shot at him, etc. Run a woman with him as veep.
Hickenlooper? Maybe. Not Warren, not Clinton- while I like her, she has shown she cant bring out the radicals or get the stay at home to vote.
Sanders will be way too old, and the GOP is salivating at a chance to attack him, it will be worse than Clinton. He will lose by a landslide. George McGovern all over again.
At the time Warren shot down the speculation, she was facing what was thought to have been an uphill fight against Clinton. No indication as to what she would do if she began as the favorite.
71 is the new 60 when it comes to presidential candidates these days. I don’t think considerable wealth will hurt her any more than Kerry or the like - less in fact since she has considerable anti-rich people credentials. And she doesn’t have most of the baggage that Clinton has. This fake-NA stuff pales in comparison.
You can lose in the primaries and run again, building on name recognition. Nixon was the last candidate to lose the general and then later win. We have a culture where losing the big event is sometimes seen as worse than not getting to it - Super Bowl losers, etc.
The Republicans have the RINO thing going for them. But, it cuts both ways. They can get the solid block but it is a small percentage of the eligible voters. A candidate that motivates the occasional voter will be key. Running Tim Kaine against Trump (and I assume he will not run agains if he isn’t having a pretty good first term) is a losing battle.
