Moving on from 2016 to start planning for midterm elections. You have a ton of your Senate seats up for grabs whereas the Pubs only have 8-10 up (depending on Senate confirmations). The whole House is up for grabs of course along with 36 Governorships (I didn’t realize it was so many) and state Houses.
So what’s the plan going to be? How soon before Dems start lining up to run in 2020 for the White House? I guess the first question is who are the Dem political leaders going to be? Obama’s the elder statesman, Clinton is done, Biden is 74, Sanders isn’t even a Democrat so who takes over?
Possible prez candidates: Cory Booker, Kirsten Gillibrand, governor of RI (Gina Raimondo), Tim Kaine, Sanders (despite his age), Biden (despite his age), Franken, John Hickenlooper, Andrew Cuomo, Kate Brown (gov of Oregon), Mark Warner, off the top of my head.
I think there’s no chance of HRC getting the nomination again.
Dear god, do not run any of these people. Hickenlooper and Biden are alright. The centrists and independents have stated very clearly they do not want to see any auxiliary “establishment” democrats like Booker, Kaine, and Gillibrand.
Pick a few specific Trump policies to criticize and regurgitate them ad nauseum. Preferably ones easy to relate with anecdote. Don’t waste your breath on what Trump did or said last summer. Invite the whites back. Run on a message of solidarity and pathos. Make “small businesses” your mantra. Lie about making some magic compromise with coal and renewables. Have a “fair” primary, without Booker, and preferably with Kamala Harris.
I’m not sure a possibly 1/32 Cherokee lioness can be president. I can see the calls now: ‘show us your great-grandmother’s birth certificate!’ ‘Take a DNA test to prove you’re not genetically a lioness!’
Hopefully the democrats don’t just trot out another one of their long-groomed, absolutely boring candidates with no charisma and no plan to appeal to anyone but big donors and people who are going to vote Democrat no matter who runs. And maybe they could ditch gun control as an issue, since they can’t get the laws past republicans in the first place and lose a ton of votes by talking about it, but I don’t really expect them to.
If the Democrats are dumb enough to run Hillary again in 2020 I’ll vote for Trump in hopes that she’ll lose badly enough this time they get a clue and run a decent candidate.
Should be a piece of cake. Keep relentlessly emphasizing how the Trump presidency “has been bad for America” - that’s the anti-incumbent strategy in any election, and no reason why it wouldn’t work in 2018 and 2020. A President Trump would hand out more ammunition to his enemies than just about any contemporary president would. Hard to see how 2020 isn’t the biggest popular vote landslide since 1984.
But seriously, Warren is one of the leading lights of the Democratic party at this time, and is a hero to the progressive wing. If an outsider and backbencher like Sanders could almost topple the Anointed One that would make someone like Warren the front-runner if she chose to run, I would think.
But a lot depends on what Trump does. Even more than that, what the economy does.
One thing the Democrats must NOT do is “fight the next war based off of the last one.” They must not nominate an anti-establishment candidate in 2020, thinking “We needed a Bernie against Trump.” By 2020 the American electorate will be crying and begging for a traditional, boring, establishment candidate, having grown absolutely sick of someone like Trump.
The Republicans are going to gut the safety net while the white working class will realize the safety net is important to them. Conversely the Republicans will cut taxes and regulations so the rich can get richer. Consequently the white working class will significantly go back to the Democratic party.
You’re right. Being serious, I think Warren probably has the inside track to the 2020 nomination. I don’t think she’s a much better general-election candidate than Clinton was, but it wouldn’t surprise me one bit if she’s the next Democratic nominee.
What are you advocating? That Democrats not nominate someone without any legislative experience, which would never happen anyways? That they use “ammunition,” despite its impotence in the last election? Or that they deliberately nominate someone boring? Do you want another “in the bag” scenario where everyone stays home? They may as well run Hillary again if that is the case.
The most obvious problem is that Warren has never expressed any interest in being President. In this cycle, she shot down any speculation quickly.
Throw in the fact that she’ll be 71 in 2020, her considerable wealth and obvious status as part of the East Coast elite, and the corporate money that she’s received, and she really doesn’t look like a great candidate. It’s worth remembering that being “a hero to the progressive wing” doesn’t make someone popular in suburban Ohio or rural Wisconsin.
I don’t think that will happen. They’ll continue to have Liberals take the fall for everything but still vote Republican despite it being against their self-interest.
Source: they still vote Republican despite it being against their self-interest.
In 2018, hope to god that higher turnout means the dems win the house. The senate will be near impossible. Control of the house will make it harder for Trump to get his way. Generally the GOP does better in midterms, but the dems did win the house in 2006. If the dems can get an additional 5-10 million people to bother to vote in 2010 above and beyond people who’d vote anyway, that would tip the house.
In 2020, run someone who has good political skills and isn’t controversial, and hope that all the rage and disgust that has built up over the last 4 years against Trump leads to a strong showing in the polls.