GQP folks like seem to that sorta thing. It’s a vote-getter.
That’s a pretty accurate description of the situation. There’s not a good Dem bench here.
Sadly, this same scenario is playing out in many states all around the country. Pushing back against the rising tide of 24/7/365 sheer reactionary irrational enthusiasm driven by 24/7/365 sheer reactionary profit-making propaganda is just so exhausting.
Ultimately I guess it feels not too different from how the drug enforcement folks feel about their battle w organized crime: When you’re up against something driven by a profit motive and a couple hundred million customers, and your side is not driven by a profit motive, nor funded by one, the task is Sisyphean. Commerce (AKA “greed”) will always win. Always.
I couldn’t read the article you linked. By military background, I meant "During his military career, DeSantis has been awarded the Bronze Star Medal, the Navy and Marine Corps Commendation Medal, the Global War on Terrorism Service Medal, and the Iraq Campaign Medal.[35][36][37]
So…that counts out most female candidates? I don’t think this is as germane as it used to be.
Again, I don’t think this is a big deal in the general election (what color was Obama’s hair?)
Except for one major problem - By July 25, 2022, Biden was “historically unpopular” according to the same source, with an average disapproval rating of 57 percent and an average approval rating of only 38%, giving him a net approval rating of -19 percentage points—the worst at this point in a first term since Harry Truman 76 years before.[48] cite
I guess I disagree with this statement - I don’t think Biden has an easy win in 2024, regardless of the GOP candidate. I still think Gavin Newsom has a much better chance to win the general election than Biden.
That’s a good point. Of course, females are going to have a disadvantage with misogynistic right-wingers no matter what.
Trump is taller than Biden but still lost. The thing is, DeSantis is exactly the male national average at 5’9" (175 cm) and could seem actually short for a presidential candidate. I don’t think it’s the biggest factor in the world, but it’s there.
I agree that hair color doesn’t a whole lot, if anything.
He’s currently at 42%:
With the country as polarized as it is, I’m not sure what this means. I’ve read somewhere speculation that the kind of high approval ratings that presidents used to enjoy are a thing of the past, at least for now. Trump also had pretty consistently low approval ratings.
I think Biden will have an easy win against Trump, and it looks like the GOP will be sticking with their fascist christ no matter what (seems like suicide to me).
Newsom isn’t going to run. No legit Democrat is going to oppose Biden.
Regarding DeSantis’s lack of charisma–yeah, it’s total. And it’s important.
People have said Biden is not articulate, etc. Maybe so, but he does have charisma and a strong presence.
How did DeSantis become governor without it? What we’ve learned from multiple presidential primaries in the past is that there are a lot of senators and governors that don’t have it.
I’m from Indiana and met Mitch Daniels in person in 2006 at a Japan/Indiana conference. He is rather short (a google search tells me 5’7", 170 cm), is very quiet, and barely looks you in the eye when he shakes your hand. But he was an extremely popular governor (and a decent person, it seems, unlike the GOP fascists and nutjobs of today). People touted him for president way back when, but he didn’t want to run (there were things that were going to be used against him as well, such as his wife having left him at one point and his Arab ancestry). Would his quiet nature have hurt him in the primary? Probably.
In the modern world, the level of media scrutiny experienced by presidential candidates is probably, without exaggeration, over 100x that experienced by candidates running for senator or governor.
Thanks for the Reuters link. I trust Reuters, and I like the breakdown of approval ratings by demographics. Would you be willing to elaborate on your post? Why isn’t Newsom going to run? And especially, what do you mean by “no legit Democrat is going to oppose Biden”. Thanks.
And poor Harry got trounced by Dewey in the election.
A non-legit “Democrat,” RFK Jr., is running against Biden, but he has no chance.
Here’s an article about times when the incumbent president faced a primary challenger:
It doesn’t happen very often. The most serious challenge in (somewhat) recent memory was Ted Kennedy opposing Jimmy Carter in 1980. That was a (some would say major) factor in Carter’s losing to Reagan.
And that’s why it doesn’t happen very often: the challenger can’t beat the incumbent but can only weaken him/her in the general.
Newsom isn’t going to do that. And I don’t get the impression–at all–that there is any enthusiasm among Democrats for him in the first place. I read dailykos, well, on the daily, and haven’t seen Newsom mentioned there at all about anything.
It’s very clear by now that “winning elections” and “doing the job” are completely separate skill sets. Historically, tale pale males did well, but I’m not sure how relevant that really is now: is there a contemporary study, say, from the midterms? And does it matter if it’s between two white men in their 60s vs two candidates from more different backgrounds?
I still don’t understand your point. Biden is already a weak candidate. Newsom is a much stronger politician (he is the governor of a state with a population of 38 million). If it’s true that the challenger can’t beat the incumbent but can only weaken him/her in the general election, then our political system is broken. I don’t agree with this. If it’s true that there isn’t any enthusiasm among Dems for Newsom, then I understand why he wouldn’t get into national politics. Why do you think there isn’t any enthusiasm among Dems for Newsom?
In the current climate, any D president will be strongly disapproved of by 80% of the reactionary right. So that’s baked in and says nothing about Biden vs any other D.
Saw a bumper sticker on a pickup truck (of course) today. It said
IMPEACH BIDEN
Make America America again
In other words, impeachment isn’t for high crimes and misdemeanors. It’s for “The other guy won and I want a do-over” Or in this yahoo’s case, more like “I’ve been rabble-roused to frothing incoherence and I sure hate everything I see.”
Where do you get that? He beat Trump by a wide margin in 2020 when he was unproven as a president. Most Dems that I hear talking (such as my friends and commenters on dailykos, etc.) seem to be pleasantly surprised by how well he has done as president. His main weakness is his age.
And Biden has been vice president and now president. How is Newsom stronger?
It’s broken in a lot of ways, but I don’t think this is one of them. I don’t think that it’s in the nature of our particular system that the challenger can’t beat the incumbent but can only harm him/her in the general. I think that if you look at it from a game theory perspective, that would almost have to be the case in any system that runs elections in roughly the same way. The incumbent is already president, has already won once (in most cases; Ford was the last unelected president), and has experience in the job. It’s a powerful position from which to run.
Because Biden is the incumbent! There is no enthusiasm for any type of primary challenge at all. It’s not going to happen (with a major figure as challenger), and thus there is no speculation about it or enthusiasm for it.
Because Newsom is young, popular, and progressive. Biden is none of these.
I really hope you are incorrect because if “Biden is the incumbent” is the only reason Biden is the Dem candidate for 2024, then there will be no hope for an election based on political debates with respect to the policies and ideologies of the candidates. DeSantis (or Trump) will be our President in 2024 if Biden is the Dem candidate. Just my opinion.
Those are good qualities. Maybe he will run for president in the future, and maybe he will prove to be stronger than Biden in the future.
I do not see a lot of fear coming from Democrats about Biden losing to either of these guys.
Fear of Trump, if Biden brings his best stuff? No. But maybe DeSantis, since he’s an unknown quantity.
On dailykos, the sentiment about DeSantis is similar to what I’ve written here. I posted articles from there that back up my points, and I don’t see anyone on there saying the opposite of that.
Sure, it’s a partisan site, and no one is going to write a pro-DeSantis piece, but one can read between the lines and read the comments, and I just don’t see any fear regarding DeSantis.
@EastUmpqua. I don’t know how old you are. In the vast majority of US history a first term president is not challenged for the nomination to a second term.
Any plausible presidential hopeful while their own party is holding a first term presidency knows this. If there’s an opening to be the second term veep, they’ll be all over that. Otherwise, they’ll spend 4 more years burninshing their credentials and wait for the time when their party’s incumbent is barred from running again. Then they attack the nomination full force from a position of equality or strength vs their competition, not from a position of weakness.
This is game theory 101. It says nothing about the merits of any of the participants. It just says what is the high- and what is the low-percentage way to play the game. A guy like Newsom is not going to make a low-percentage play. To suppose he will or should is ignorant of the complete situation.
Further, this time in 2024 there’s a meta-game going on. Trump may win the 2024 R nomination. Trump may lose the R nomination. Trump may be imprisoned for his many serious crimes against the Republic. But whatever happens in 2024, Trump will not be a factor in the 2028 election unless he wins in 2024 and then there is no 2028 election.
Everything for everybody else gets a lot easier once Trump is gone whether by virtue of advanced age / poor health, death, incarceration, or exile.
None of the up and coming D’s really want to try, and perhaps fail, against Trump in 2024. Because as we’ve seen, nobody comes away from that encounter except smothered in shit. If a potential presidential candidate is thinking solely of their own interests, not necessarily that of country or party, better to leave that battle to Reliable Stolid Old Joe & tackle whoever / whatever the 2028 Rs throw up at them while not already encrusted in stale 2024 shit.
Remembering also that the Reactionary party post-Trump will also be a very fragmented and disoriented mob. Not a disciplined political army. Assuming the Republic still exists in recognizable form, they should be a lot more beatable in 2028 than in 2024. Even if Biden is the two-term president and the D’s are looking to three-peat in 2028.
That’s called political chess, not political checkers, or worse yet, political tic-tac-toe.
Well said!