DeSantis can't win the GOP nomination or the general election in 2024 {How Trump plays into this is allowed}

Watching Ayman Mohyeldin and a panel dissect Meatball Ron (wow, trump’s naming conventions really work). One panelist said he’s weeks away from the Jeb! “please clap” moment.

There’s a lot of governors that looked great locally (Jeb!, Rick Perry) but once exposed to the national spotlight, they wilted. In the case of Perry, I saw it happen up close - here in Texas, the consolidation of power and supermajorities meant that Perry never had to make the case for his policies broadly, and he was surrounded by sycophants and never had to engage with critical media. Nothing has changed in this state, which is why Greg Abbott’s rumored run has not materialized.

The funny thing is, the GOP actually has credible governors that could be formidable in the general election - Larry Hogan and Chris Sununu. Hogan is not running - and isn’t MAGA enough, and Sununu is a small state guy who I also think won’t perform well on the national stage. But DeSantis’ doubling down on fighting Disney, being the field general for the culture wars, stupid stunts like sending undocumented people to Martha’s Vineyard, seem to be a bunch of performances where he comes across as petty and unpolished - and cruel.

Bingo. Hogan was a popular and effective governor in the blue state of Maryland. I was hoping that Hogan would run in 2024, but I think that he wisely is waiting until Trump is out of the picture.

Like you, I don’t think Sununu can perform well across the country, but I believe that Hogan could.

So do the Democrats.

Josh Shapiro and Andy Beshear did much better in their gubernatorial contests than typical Democrats in their state, and they therefore, it seems to me, would likely outperform nationally.

Governors are usually best positioned to win in November, but they aren’t strong in primaries.

P.S. I didn’t mention Laura Kelly above because she is only seven years younger than Biden. But the achievement of wining statewide, as a Democrat, in Kansas, twice, is remarkable. And a Democrat like that, who is proven as able to beat someone rather like DeSantis, has zero chance of winning a nomination.

Your over thinking this. This level of strategy is beyond Trump. The reason that Trump will pick Lake over Greene is that lake is prettier than Greene. There is no way that Trump is going to be seen repeatedly on stage with a woman who looks like Greene.

Note: I’m not judging Greene on her appearance there is plenty of other stuff to for me to judge her on, but Trump definitely will and she doesn’t make the cut.

This is pure speculation of a sort I don’t like.

Trump is neck and neck with Biden in polls because DJT knows how far he can go.

The reason he won’t pick Greene is that she goes too far in her outrageous statements. Perhaps Greene and Lake sound the same to progressives, but I will say as a centrist – Greene sounds worse.

When it comes to the VP choice, Trump will treat Greene like he is treating Mastriano:

P.S. Now how can I bring in DeSantis? I’m pretty sure he won’t consider either one in the very unlikely chance of winning the nomination.

I’m not sure you’re wrong, but this sort of thinking is why I don’t think Trump would go for a female VP, full stop. But someone upthread pointed out why it can’t be DeSantis (both from Florida).

Do you all think DeSantis might be willing to be anyone else’s VP, esp. now that he seems to be shooting himself in the hoof right out of the starting gate?

I have seen absolutely nothing in the behavior or ego of DeSantis to indicate he is willing to be second banana to anyone. Including Trump. He’s total Alpha. Dumbass Alpha yeah, but still Alpha.

I’m center-left and Greene is worse.

Don’t get me wrong, they both sound loony, but Lake is a narrow kind of loony. As far as I know she’s loony about election conspiracies but that’s it.

MTG is all over the place. Wildfires started by Jewish space lasers, white genocide, Qanon, Pizzagate, mass shooting crisis actors, Clinton murders, 9/11 “truths”, Covid conspiracies, support of Putin and the Ukraine invasion… And more.

DeSantis is relatively sane. He’s detestable, he has pushed for laws that ruthlessly attack the LGBTQ+ community, including (and especially) children. But I haven’t heard him spouting anything insane, just things that are evil. From that measure he’d make a better running mate than either of them.

Yeah, no matter who was leading the pack neither would choose the other for VP. They’re gonna fight like old walruses.

DeSantis’s policies will keep him in the limelight, but that’s all he has to claim. No skills. I make a bold prediction: He’ll have thrown in the towel by September if not sooner, barring something happening to Trump.

Well, it depends. DeSantis is functionally evil according to recognizable parameters, which means he would presumably be more predictable and effective in pursuing and implementing his agenda. By contrast, MTG is a lunatic wacko who as a member of the Trump administration would be more likely to flip her shit and attempt to purge the government of malicious conspirators by committing large-scale arson inside the White House, which would rather emphatically put a torpedo in the side of Trump’s plans. It is left as an exercise for the reader as to which scenario may be more preferable.

Of all the Trump 2.0 candidates, I think hes the one that has most groked the way Trump’s cruelty and crudeness was the point for a lot of his fans. They didn’t care about his policies, they wanted him to show up in DC and fuck things up. What was the Garth Brooks song about the Redneck showing up at the fancy wedding and going off? That’s what they wanted. The whole “fuck your feelings” crowd just wanted to see the enemy floudering, confused, unable to deal with a real man. The more shocking he was, the more they loved it.

Desantis gets that. Making Disney moms cry is red meat for that type. Pictures of teachers taping butcher paper over classroom libraries is like porn, because they fucking hated their teachers. The thought of college professors scared to put the word “race” in a email, lest the algorithm flag them is deeply satisfying. The cruelty is the point.

But part of why they liked that in Trump was because he was a billionare celebrity and we basically treat billionare celebrities like demigods. They aren’t expected to follow the rules for mortals. So the rest of the party, the sort that would normally have issues with things like infidelity or illegal shit didn’t care because weve been tolerating that in our Rock Stars forever.

But Desantis doesn’t have that. He’s just this guy, you know? So I don’t think he can thread the needle between awful enough to get the assholes exceited about voting, but not so brutish as to not discourage the more respectable voters (who will stay home, not switch sides). This is probably especially true against Biden and especially incumbant Biden. Its harder to be scared of 4 more years of Joe than say, Hillary.

Especially with that voice of his.

DeSantis has a Howard Dean moment on CNN this morning:

How is that a Howard Dean moment, I mean he looks and sounds goofy there, but nothing like that sound bite that somehow sunk Dean.

We will see how this impacts ol’ Bobble Head Ron, but I bet many a comedian will have a field day with this.

Yeah, OMG, he has the fucking crazy eyes things going on here.

Glad you’re not a candidate, Ron. Now if you could fuck off from public life for good, we’d all be better off.

(BTW, where can I buy a life-size Barbie doll like that?!)

I’ve previously called out 1) DeSantis’ weird bobble head thing and 2) Just how badly he handles even tepidly difficult questions (hence why he only appears on friendly media).

I’m still surprised to see all this come together in a man having some kind of episode from being asked about a poll.

Yeah, in the clip, he seems like an awkward, petulant teenager mouthing off to his dad when he’s told to take out the trash. The reaction to the question is grossly exaggerated and completely inappropriate.

It’s not a Howard Dean moment, inasmuch as this dumbass is like this all the time. Don’t talk about prime time–this fool isn’t even ready to play Bozo the clown.

You have many good points.

Friends in Low Places. The event, however, was a “black tie affair,” FWIW…

Yes, this is really important. The same shit can’t be pulled by any shit-puller. Trump is an archetypal rogue. I think the man is human trash, but even I chuckle at the audacious things he says at times. DeSantis isn’t even an imitation of what Trump is.

Exactly. But he’s even worse, politically speaking, than “some guy,” since he doesn’t come off as an everyman or ordinary fellow either. He seems like a clueless, well-off member of the political elite, which is exactly what he is (at least as “elite” as Florida gets, lol).

Right. I don’t think there are even all that many people who are excited about DeSantis himself. I think the excitement has mostly been about the idea of a person who could do Trump more effectively than Trump himself. DeSantis ain’t it.

I always thought Howard Dean, who was a serious candidate, caught on a hot mike yelling, got a raw deal. In the context of what took place it was totally normal (it was a loud hall and he probably sounded totally fine). Poor guy.

In the sense of “this will be looped and mocked relentlessly” yes this is a Howard Dean moment for Meatball Ron.

It looked exactly like what an SNL cast member (Mikey Day?) would do if they were imitating him during a skit… only it’s way over the top. It’s gonna be played on every late night show and will become a meme, much like Marco Rubio grabbing water and looking at the camera nervously. At some point you say, “I don’t want that guy being president.” That might be it. He’s vanilla so he has no counter-image to present. (Well, those white go-go boots…)

If he was a normal politician I would feel bad for him, but he’s an evil SOB so this is exactly what he deserves. Every queer kid in Florida, I hope, can take solace in watching him self-immolate.