Okay, first of all, let me state that this may be a stupid question, but I am going to ask it anyway.
I was wondering – is there any evidence that Saddam thought that he had huge stockpiles of chemical weapons at hand? (I know that we did not find them; I was just thinking that perhaps some of his advisors led him to believe that Iraq possessed enough quantities to deter any attack.)
I’m in the middle of a project so I can’t get you a cite right now, but the man who interrogated him said that Hussein didn’t think America would really attack. He had thought it was mindless saber rattling by the son of his old enemy. So there is no reason to assume he thought there were poison gas canisters protecting him.
Perhaps Saddam had a sense of safety because he couldn’t imagine that the US really was stupid enough to remove him and release the cap on decades of pent up hostility. Hundred(s) of thousand(s) dead [depending on who’s accounting you believe], millions driven from their homes and who knows how many injured and maimed. A clever administration wouldn’t want that public relations fiasco for no good reason.
I’ll have to dig up a cite if one is requested (it may be the same cite that **Lobohan **would dig up), but I recall reading a piece lately that posited that Sadam was not disuading the world of his lack of weaponry because he want Iran to be scared of his batshittery.
Not sure if this is the precise article I recalled, but it is the gist: FBI interviews detail Saddam Hussein’s fear of Iran, WMD bluff
Here’s a cite that Saddam claims he was intentionally bluffing about having WMD’s to appear strong to Tehran. He did not expect America to call his bluff. This claim was made to FBI interrogators in 2004 and was recently declassified. The FBI states the interrogations (20 total) were “formal” and “casual.”
And not only did Iraq want Iran think they had WMDs, Iran wanted the US to believe it so we would attack their longtime enemy.
Why would he not have known? The guy was the supreme leader of his nation after all, and ruled with an iron fist. If anyone in the country knew about possible WMD it was Saddam.
I find it much more credible that he knew he didn’t have them but was running a bluff. Unfortunately for him (and us), the US called him on it…and turns out he had aces and 8’s, while the US had a full house.
Unfortunately for us, the insurgents had a fist full of wild cards.
I’d have to say that there isn’t much chance that his advisers told him he had them when in fact they didn’t. Iraq really wasn’t set up in such a way that something like that would be kept from Saddam.
-XT
What are you saying, that Ahmed Chalabi was an Iranian agent who suckered the US into doing the Ayatollah’s will?
The alternative would be that his advisers were so afraid of him they just kept bullshitting him about the state of the program and never let him find out the truth. I don’t think that’s how it really happened, but it makes for a good cautionary tale.
That is actually the scenario that I was thinking about. I have no idea how feasible it was, though!
During the Battle of Berlin at the end of World War II, Hitler didn’t realize for five days that SS General Steiner didn’t have enough troops to break the Russian salient and keep them from taking the city. His generals certainly knew that, but they either didn’t tell him, or when they tried to, he didn’t believe them.
One of the problems that a dictator with a reputation for tyranny faces is that his subordinates come to fear him and fear making him unhappy, so they’re less likely to give him bad news, and so he tends to have an overly optimistic view of his nation’s condition.
I’m not saying that that necessarily happened in the case of Saddam and WMDs, but it’s a failing that dictatorships often fall prey to.
Chairman Mao was gaslighted for a couple of years about the fictional benefits of the Great Leap Forward, so it isn’t like people are unable to hide the truth from an egomaniac. However, Saddam’s fiction lasted for much longer, so even setting aside the evidence that he knew he had no WMD, it is hard to believe that Saddam would be in the dark for a good part of a decade prior to the invasion. (As in, from Clinton’s 1998 bombing raids to 2003’s invasion.)
Management Secrets of Saddam Hussein, 798 pgs. Remainder House, $29.95. Amazon ranking, 114,329, just below* So, You Want to Be a Leper!..*
Let’s put a little context into this latest wondering about how to make excuses for GW Bush. Here’s how things were being argued before we went and conquered Iraq:
If War Commences and WMD’s Are Found, What Then?
charming stuff.
He actually did have a considerable amount of chemical weapons IIRC, but not the bio weapons we feared. He did have some supplies to make nuclear stuff but never got it going.
You mean, like, aluminum?
Do you mean like the chemical energy stored in bullets?
No, he was definitely getting the equipment to get it, although was not nearly as far along as was thought. I think we can all thank that this was the case, no matter what out political persuasion.
However, he definitely had chemical weapons stored and stockpiled, including impresive amounts of mustard gas, a primitive but nasty and effective weapon.
The big problem with message boards is you can’t see if the other guy is keeping a straight face or not.
Saddam knew he didn’t have them. But knew he could build them within a fairly short window of time if needed. I think it’s clear he thought the US was bluffing.
If anybody has a link to David Kay’s complete report, I’d love to see it. I read it years ago. Just googled and either missed it or couldn’t find it.
If I remember correctly, Iraq did have:
1 - Medium range missiles that violated UN sanctions.
2 - The ability to equip the missiles with chemical and/or biological weapons.
3 - The mobile facilities capable of producing chemical and/or biological weapons.
Though David Kay was clear that there were no stockpiles, I believe that he also said (which got much less press) that Iraq was capable from any point in time of producing WMDs within 6-12 months.
Here’s a decent piece from the guardian: