I agree with all of this, and would take your side in the bet. But I also think the election is unlikely to be that close - few are (1960, 1968 & 2000 are the only ones I can remember in recent times).
FWIW, there’s been a lot of talk about Gephart being the Democrat that the Republicans fear the most. I don’t recall if geographic considerations were the reason (I recall a bit about him being a relative moderate who supported the Iraq war). But the question is if he can make it out of the primaries. He’s been doing a bit better recently, but still seems like a long-shot.
John, that was beneath you, I would have thought - but you do seem to react similarly at every revelation of Republican-partisan hypocrisy. A word of caution, okay? At least try to respond to the statement being made.
Re Gephardt, is anyone saying he has a chance of getting much more support than he does now? The guy’s been around the racetrack a few times already, and without getting much out of the mud. It seems to me, rather, that geography matters less now than it used to, as we’ve become more homogeneous both culturally and economically. The “Rust Belt”, for instance, isn’t much more distressed than anywhere else, and isn’t any more likely to go for a guy whose only solution to every problem is protectionism than they’ve been before. We’ve had enough of single solutions to every problem from this guy - try being a little less condescending to The Huddled Masses out there, and it’ll help a lot.
Elvis, I’m not saying that Gephardt has a respectable chance of getting the Democratic nomination, nor am I suggesting that he would be the sort of campaigner who could win the hearts and minds of otherwise apathetic voters. I’m just saying that, IMHO at least, he stands a significantly better chance than other Dems do of winning a group of key states in an otherwise close election. That speaks to the issue raised in the thread title.
I disagree that geography matters less than it used to. I think the relation between geography and politics has rarely been so profound in my lifetime. My use of the term “Rust Belt” may be confusing you on this score; I’m using it as a shorthand for Midwest + PA + WV, rather than talking about the rust itself, ifyaknowwhatImean.
I hardly think Gephardt’s a single-issue candidate. Sure, of all the Dems running, he’s the most closely identified with protectionism. OTOH, I like his plan for health care. And most of all, I like his motivation behind both - the fact that, when push comes to shove, he’s on the side of people rather than corporations. When it’s put like that, I’m a single-issue voter, and that’s the issue.
That’s why election discussions are so much fun. My point re Gephardt is that he has no more upside available to him, but the “newer” candidates do. Downside too, for that matter, but still, the best potential performer against Bush won’t be an old party plowhorse.
Geography still matters, yes, but national issues dominate, and this time those are the economy as reflected in voters’ senses of personal security, and the continuing deaths in Iraq.
I don’t see how those issues are primarly “people vs. corporations”, especially since corporations are just agents of their stockholders. Wouldn’t a more accurate statement be that he is on the side of non-stockholders rather than stockholders?
Wesley Clark is an Arkansan. Arkansas and an honest vote in Florida would seal the deal even if Indiana, New Mexico, and Oregon all went the other way. However, since there won’t be an honest vote in Florida, thanks to the allowance of late military write-in ballots, I think all Democrat candidates are going to have to tailor their theories to incorporate the loss of that state.
Personally I think that Ohio is the state to look for as a swing state. This winter they’re going to be lavished with praise for being the birthplace of flight, with all sorts of Presidential visits and such. But I think the first Democrat candidate who has the balls to take a seat at Browns Stadium takes the state.
(And yes, I volunteered to work for Clark’s campaign; no, I’m not actally doing any campaign work yet.)
