Translation: “You got me there. No one else I can think of gets disbelieved like that when they share personal information, so I can’t demonstrate that others get challenged like that and just let it go.”
I’ll also note that when I mentioned my 2007 prediction about Jeremiah Wright, you challenged me for a cite and I spent hours digging through Daily Kos to provide you one.
Riiight. I just thought the thread completely changed topics to discuss a wagering game of skill and chance for no particular reason. I wonder if you really believe this, or are just saying it to try to needle me. Whatevs.
Those lists always strike me as the kind of thing the hoi polloi comes up with as an outlet for their insecurity and resentment in the presence of their betters. It’s reminiscent of an informal code of conduct in Scandinavian culture, known as the “Law of Jante”. Per Wikipedia:
- You’re not to think you are anything special.
- You’re not to think you are as good as we are.
- You’re not to think you are smarter than we are.
- You’re not to imagine yourself better than we are.
- You’re not to think you know more than we do.
- You’re not to think you are more important than we are.
- You’re not to think you are good at anything.
- You’re not to laugh at us .
- You’re not to think anyone cares about you .
- You’re not to think you can teach us anything.
Sound familiar?
You’ve got a greengrocer’s apostrophe there, might want to wipe that off.
And you really don’t understand online poker (at least as it was played before Black Friday) if you don’t think bluffing can be effective. It’s important to pick your targets, of course: I had a friend who really loved to bluff, but was frustrated not to have a positive winrate like I did. I pointed out that he often aimed his bluffs at calling stations, which is a recipe for disaster. Those are the people you want to value bet when you have the goods, and just check it down otherwise.
You need to use tracking software, of course (ones approved by the site: I use Tournament Indicator). At every table, there will be a couple players with VPIP% lower than 25 (often more than a couple in the late stages of tournaments, the most crucial period for earning real money). Those are the ones you want to target preflop to steal their blinds. There are other players who are loose preflop (they will call with almost anything to see if they hit the flop), but are still not “calling stations” proper because they have a low WSD (went to showdown) percentage. These are “fit or fold” players, and if they miss the flop you can usually take it down in position with an economical half-pot bet (which only has to work a third of the time to break even). You want to aim this at only the right flop though, like Kxx rainbow (meaning along with the king, there’s a couple low cards of different suits, so it’s unlikely they’ll have any draw, but they will be afraid you paired the king). It’s also good to bet into paired boards (like a flop of Q77), because there are so many fewer ways your opponent can connect with such a flop, and they have to fear that you have a seven and thus made trips.
A favorite of mine is the semi-bluff. Let’s say I am in the big blind with QJ of diamonds, and I have a chip stack of 50K. Blinds are 1K/2K. The aggressive button, who has me covered, opens preflop for 5K and I call the extra 3K. Pot is now 11K. Flop comes 8 of clubs, 9 of diamonds, 4 of diamonds. I check to the raiser, and he makes his standard “c-bet” (continuation bet, a sort of bluff that is very common after someone has raised preflop and gets checked to on the flop) of 6K. I check-raise all in for another 39K, putting heavy pressure on “villain” (the other player). S/he quite possibly doesn’t have anything and will instafold. Or they might have something like a pocket pair of sevens, which currently has me beat, but will still fold. Even if villain calls, I have 12 “outs” (cards that will give me the best hand): four tens that will fill my “gutshot” straight draw, and eight other diamonds that will give me a flush. With two cards to come, I have nearly a fifty percent chance of making one of my draws. If villain is calling with something like ace-nine, giving them TP (top pair, top kicker), I have six more outs: any queen or jack, that would give me a higher top pair–in which case I’d actually be a favorite in the hand despite not yet having a “made hand”.
And yes, I have spent my fair share of time on the twoplustwo forums, although not recently. Feel free to look me up there if you like.