I’m kind of bullish on it, but nobody I’ve spoken to this month thinks the worst is over.
They keep saying things like more lemmings are scheduled to do a Pets.com and destroy their prospects by spending all their reserves on a single useless Super Bowl ad.
Most think the whole “model” is now so screwed that even good sites that operate in the black will not be able to get any expansion money, and have to die before reaching critical mass, or operating threshold, or whatever.
My take is that while the market-share landrush is over, anybody selling a product that makes sense will grow.
To make sense, it just has to need a national but specialized market.
Not dogfood where shipping kills you, but stuff that’s already being shipped, custom products, special orders and the like.
i think all will be good on the web. but everyone’s pants’ zippers will fall down(unzip). it was supposed to happen during 2000, but then ppl started thinking that the real millenium (yeah, i can spell) is 2001.
(pant zippers will become unzipped because,you know,“Ykk” '(y2k)'is on all zippers)
I believe that the shake-out of ill-though-out companies will continue, both web-only business and the pointless web presences of some corporations that just joined the goldrush to look good. I still don’t think that the demand for ecommerce is enough to sustain a lot of the more optimistic companies. The ones that survive will be either the ones who treat a web presence as no more than another marketing and sales channel alongside their regular operations (and are thus not dependent on ecommerce) and who, as Pot o’ Gold said, are providing niche but not over-specialised products nationwide.
Some common sense should hopefully enter the fray, too. I mean, buying pet food over the web?