Sam Brownback is a screwup, no argument there. SCott Walker’s record is more mixed. Michigan, like Illinois, is a basket case and it’s hard to argue the Democrats did any better in those states.
For example.
Yeppers.
Just making the point that it’s not just the estimate that counts, it’s the degree of uncertainty around the estimate. Just because someone’s best guess is that Cruz will win by 8, doesn’t exclude or contradict their also believing there’s a realistic chance that Cruz will lose.
Ask your banker! Well, ask the guard at his gated community to call him, see if he’ll talk to you.
The shift per 538 may actually have been more like “a 20-point swing toward Democrats relative to the district’s FiveThirtyEight partisan lean” …
So does that alter your prediction at all?
538 also had a chat about it today. Broad brushstroke was these bits:
So you are in good company with that Cruz+8. Why he went from national of +12 to +9 I dunno. I’m also putting less on the incumbent advantage or Texas being all that special in this current environment, not if AZ-8 warn’t, and would expect a Cruz win but within 3 and would not bet against the upset D win.
O’Rourke told PACs to stay out of his race; they aren’t listening: https://www.cnn.com/2018/05/12/politics/beto-orourke-texas-senate-pac-spending/index.html
I like it.
No surprises. Cruz +7 (Cruz 47%, O’Rourke 40%, Jenkins 6%, Undecided 7%).
575 likely voters from a polling firm that, I think, is a C pollster according to 538 (very similar but not identical name). Decent crosstabs included in the link.
Three takeaways:
[ul]
[li]Cruz is not over 50%. This is necessary but not sufficient for an O’Rourke upset.[/li][li]Cruz is underwater in favorability. 42/44 -2. What a douche.[/li][li]Jonathan Jenkins is running as an independent. I have no idea what this means if anything. Texas Dopers?[/li][/ul]
Hopefully lots of polling yet to come in the next five and half months.
I’m from Texas and a political junkie and I didn’t know Jonathan Jenkins was running. And in my county (Collin) north of Dallas, we are very conservative. I’ve seen 1/2 dozen Beto signs in the neighborhood and not a single Cruz. Which I know is not a scientific poll by any means. But it does mean that the Democrats at least have a sense of enthusiasm this year.
Unfortunately his douchiness is already baked in.
That’s the thing, and that’s really why this thread exists. There doesn’t appear to be a way to get rid of Ted Cruz even though the people of Texas, on average, don’t like him.
As a contrast, I don’t like Tom Cotton. I think he’s horrible, but the people of Arkansas like him so I guess i have to put up with him.
Why do I have to put up with Ted Cruz?
It’s because the people who don’t like him don’t all dislike him for the same reason. Some of the people who don’t like him are probably Trump style Republicans or Libertarians rather than traditional Republicans, and they are likely to vote for him even if they don’t like him.
New Quinnipiac poll.
Pretty much bad news all around for Beto. Cruz +11 (50-39). Cruz +11 favorable. Cruz +13 job approval.
If this is accurate, and Quinnipiac is pretty reputable, Cruz wins easily if there’s no game changer in Beto’s favor.
PredictIt has moved Cruzward in response.
Among Hispanics Cruz is up by two points. Given the margin of error, that’s a statistical dead heat. A near even split of the Hispanic vote doesn’t bode well for any Democrat in Texas.
Yeah, I think my hopes that this would be at least interesting are pretty much dashed. Another poll like this and I’ll be 100% convinced.
There’s still a non-zero chance that Ted peels his face off and reveals his true reptilian nature. That’s gotta be good for like a five point Beto bump, right?
I’ll go with moderately dashed … it’s been a good couple of weeks for the GOP in polling - Trump’s national approval underwater hit under 10 points, which he hadn’t been at in over a year, the generic House tracker got under D+5, also a new low. Specific to Texas in that same poll Trump had a nine point shift in his approval rating between those polls.
I’m expecting that all those will return to the longer term mean over the next weeks and few months and the polling in this race will likely follow. Cruz face peeling is not as required as that is.
This, and their previous poll, are both registered voter results not likely voter results. Turnout is a big deal in midterm elections. We’re missing some pretty important information before O’Rourke is truly forked and done.
This campaign has been too quiet lately…I don’t know if too many Texans outside the absolute base are following it.
The Democrats’ largest problem is a weak field overall. Valdez is not going to give Abbott any trouble.The Lieutenant Governor’s race (very important in Texas) is generating no heat.
Another huge factor is that oil prices are rising again, which is good news for the Texas economy and helps the status quo - though that can mean trouble for incumbents in areas that are energy consuming.
I don’t know if you can really call the people who would vote for Cruz over O’Rourke “Trump-style” republicans.
The thing is, there have been decades of conditioning by the Republican party around here that have essentially sold the message that the Democrats are the party of minorities and fringe groups, and that they don’t represent the majority of Texans.
The Democratic party does a surprisingly good job of fitting right into that mold in a lot of ways too, even if that’s due to gerrymandering. Despite the state level and national level platforms not really being that way, people don’t see that. What they do see is a large majority of Democratic legislators being ethnic, and in a lot of cases, being actively hostile, clownish or crooked- see John Wiley Price, Dwaine Caraway, El Franco Lee, or Sheila Jackson Lee (hurricane names are too “white”?) for some examples.
And even when they’re not obnoxious in some way, their policymaking, especially at the local levels seems to be VERY centered on their own communities and constituencies.
So you end up with a bunch of people who see these politicians who they feel don’t represent them in any way, and then extrapolate that to feel that their party doesn’t or can’t represent them either.
So they see someone like Ted Cruz, and figure that as odious as he is, he’s their best bet, even if Beto is actually Anglo, because they figure Beto’s goal as a Democrat is to essentially take the tax money and spend it on inner city poor people instead of rural/suburban issues.
Well as the national mood is slightly shifted back maybe so has this race. The 5 points is one thing, the fact that it is 41:36 is another. Cruz about even favorable unfavorable and Beto’s favorable +13.
Single polls are single polls