This is a personal pet peeve of mine, but one poll does not tell us the state of the race. Cruz’s lead has not shrunk to five points. If this was the only recent poll maybe we could say that it is our best guess, but this wasn’t even the only poll released today.
Of 1025 registered voters we have Cruz 44 O’Rourke 36 (Cruz +8).
Of 821 likely voters we have Cruz 50 O’Rourke 40 (Cruz +10).
The LV result includes only 7% not sure with 3% someone else which is not enough undecided voters to win even if Beto gets them all. Blah blah blah margin of error one poll etc.
Together we have two polls today. One has bad news and the other has very bad news. I think we’re still in O’Rourke needs a game changer territory.
There’s still a non-zero chance that Ted peels his face off and reveals his true reptilian nature and then eats a child separated from his or her parents at the border.
Wasn’t Cruz a debate champion at some point in undergrad? He might feel that working from a personal strength outweighs giving O’Rourke exposure, plus he may feel that not wanting to debate will make it look like he’s got something to hide.
Realclearpolitics poll average shows Cruz +8.4. The CBS poll, which I found predictive in past Texas Senate contests, has the last one with Cruz +10. (EDIT: As Lance Turbo already noted above, with more detail.) My guess of Cruz +8 is right in the middle.
Someone with Cruz’s arrogance about his intelligence, possibly. I suspect he thinks he can wipe the floor with O’Rourke and turn a high single digit lead into a double digit lead.
If Cruz was thinking more strategically though, keeping O’Rourke fairly close but slightly out of reach draws in a lot of Democratic money that could better be used for races they could win.
This is an interesting poll. The result you quote is their likely voter number, where “likely” is defined as registered and voted in either the primary this year, or one of the two previous midterms. Even for the registered voters, Cruz is still only up by 2.
The same poll has incumbent Governor Abbott (R) up by 16%. Given that he won by 19% in 2014, a very bad year for Democrats, that suggests to me that the poll is not ridiculously out of line with the electorate in Texas.
My pessimism for November has Benn reduced by a hair.
Quinnipiac also shows a tightening race, though they have Cruz still up by 6, 49-43. It had been 50-39 in May.
A big gulf in the number of undecideds between the two polls: 8 points for the Q-poll, 19 points for Lyceum. Big difference between Beto having to win slightly more than half of the undecideds to win (Lyceum) versus having to get practically all of them (Quinnipiac).
Interesting in Quinnipiac poll that 43% of potential voters still don’t know enough about O’Rourke to have an opinion about him.
If there is to be an upset (and if there is it would be a shocking upset) it rests on white males not bothering to come out so much while women, Blacks, and Hispanics (all of who favor O’Rourke) do.
That large undecided number is weird. Oh well, we get the government we deserve to pay attention to.
White males are probably not going to stay on the sidelines if O’Rourke continues to hammer a gun control message. Which is why I believe he’s going to soft-pedal that from now on. (EDIT: Is it soft-peddle? Or soft-pedal?)
Beto aggressively courting the dog owners vote by rescuing two lost labs on his way to Del Rio:
Really, they should cut a quick ad showing Beto rescuing these two manly man’s dogs with Cruz’s little froo-froo dog. The message won’t be lost here in Tejas, that’s for sure.