Please, don’t feel obligated.
His path is name recognition, charisma and a message that resonates. It’s not like he’s running as a nobody; he’s a sitting member of Congress. While I’d like to have someone with executive experience atop the ticket, or military service, the most important thing is charisma and a message that resonates.
Ok, now I can post the link to the article I referenced: Could Beto O’Rourke Become President?
Ditto. Please consider yourself excused from elaborating. Please.
Thanks!
Most sitting members of the House are nobodies outside their districts. If he really wants to be president, he should run for governor. Like Gavin Newsom is doing in CA.
In this political environment, not having a lightning rod attached to you for years upon years may be a better way to run.
According to the FiveThirtyEight model, Democrats need a +5.3 popular vote win to have a 50% chance of a House majority.
They don’t have a Senate model up yet.
Recent poll says Cruz is leading by 1%, which is margin of error zone.
I saw that, and it’s heartening. However, I’ve seen critiques of that poll regarding it having a relatively high percentage of ‘undecideds’ (21 %) compared to other polls which give Cruz a larger lead with a smaller percentage of undecideds.
Its not simply the actual numbers of people who prefer Beto. This is Texas, and these are Republicans. They may be willing to do almost anything to keep Cruz from losing, but they will do anything to keep Beto from winning!
So, that adds another fudge factor to guesstimate. If there are political shenanigans, which are more common in Texas than pecan pie, then the Dems will go to court. The Republicans are already there.
Beto cannot just win, he must win decisively if not overwhelming. If it gets to court cases and recounts, it is lost. It is nonetheless heartening to make the bastards nervous, to see them looking back over their shoulders as if worrying that maybe Jesus doesn’t love them *that *much!
Sic 'em, Beto!
Since there’s no way he’s going to win overwhelmingly, I guess we should all just give up then?
Ooh. Snap.
It looks like you need to be within 10% of the other guy’s vote total to be allowed to request a recount. By my calculation, discounting 3rd party votes, that means a win with 52.6% of the vote.
https://www.sos.state.tx.us/elections/laws/recounts.shtml
Anecdotally, I’ll say that I see more Beto signs in the NE Dallas suburbs I live in than I do Ted Cruz signs. Only one Cruz sign to probably 5-10 Beto signs.
I sorta feel like at some point Beto may have already made the switch from running for Senate to running for president. His viral video has been retweeted by big name athletes and celebrities, and he’s gonna be on Ellen, neither of which really does him a lick of good in Texas (and might actually be hurting him), but totally raises his national profile and will help fill his coffers. I think he may have started out wanting to unseat Teddy Boy, but now may be licking his chops as he eyes the papa grande.
Also anecdotally, there’s Beto yard signs all over the Houston suburbs. I’ve only found one Cruz sign.
Also, many Beto signs all over San Antonio neighborhoods that you’d expect to be Republican. I’ve only seen one Ted Cruz sign.
But remember that Austin, San Antonio, and all counties south of here went to Hillary.
PredictIt market has moved from roughly three to one Cruz to two to one Cruz. I’m guessing due to the recent Emerson poll, but possibly also skateboarding, anthem, rainbows, unicorns, etc.
I don’t think I’ve seen a single thread about a rising Dem star without someone saying “Maybe he’s going to try for President!” It’s getting a little silly. As bad as when Trump got nominated and every Republican who got on board was declared angling for the VP slot. You all realize that the vast majority of politicians don’t run for the top job, right?
You do realize it’s going to be a large field of candidates this time around, right? And you do realize that because of the outsider in the WH right now, people on non-traditional paths to the WH are probably being looked at more. In additional to other criteria, politicians who have demonstrated some crossover/red state appeal are likely considering their options.
And really, you’re getting bent over people speculating about who’s gonna run?
Yes, I am totally bent about it. That’s why I said it was silly.