Donald Just Lost The Election

From our good friends over at Talking Points Memo:

So Will Trump Follow Through On His $5 Million Birther Charity Promise?

Boiled down: Trump promised to give $5 million to charity if anyone gave him solid proof of Obama’s birth. So…

Add Beyoncé to that list and that would be the end of sleepless nights for all progressives.

Now if they can just get Michelle Obama…

Yes, I hope she will continue to speak out (building on her Democratic Convention speech).

Incidentally, ‘favorable/unfavorable’ polls on Michelle Obama may give the purest, cleanest information on the percentage of the US population that is either white supremacist or at least substantially bigoted against non-whites, because she has spent eight years saying basically nothing about policy issues (i.e., being a ‘good First Lady’). Though Americans do know something about her as an individual, we don’t know a lot, and so reactions to her are likely to reflect reactions to non-white women in general.

At the end of July, Gallup had her at 58% Favorable among American adults, 8% ‘no opinion,’ and 33% Unfavorable.

That “33%” figure is probably a fairly solid indicator of those holding views that could be characterized as racism against non-whites.

Not quite; her anti-obesity campaign drew ire from those who considered it nanny-stating.

Decompositionally, if my vote counts for anything.

Are you kidding? She told Americans to eat their vegetables. She is the Beast from 20,000 Calories. She lost the entire middle school vote, too.

IMHO he has jumped from the frying pan into the fire, As elucidator pointed out:

Nice way to remind voters about how Trump fulfills promises. Not by much and will stiff the ones who he makes deals.

And that is what he plans for America.

How about the spineless Condi Rice and Colin Powell? I know we’ve seen it in his emails but the man just needs to grab his balls and own it.

Sure, the 33% were always going to find a way to say ‘see, she’s a TERRIBLE person!’…but didn’t they look silly doing it? :cool:

I really have no idea what is going on in your brain. I’ve seen you lament how Hillary desperately needs to court the centrist white vote. You have assuredly seen the polls that show Trump has historically shitty numbers with Black voters. Yet you hope that this, by your own admission risky, cavalcade of Black celebrity attacks on Trump happen.

Trump Is In Fourth Place Among Black Voters

Seriously, wtf?
And the OP is delusional if he thinks this media snub is on par with Hillary collapsing at a public event.

Doesn’t matter how far ahead Hillary is with black voters being polled, if Republican dominated states are going to put up roadblocks to their being able to vote, and if they manage to not count their votes if they get *to *the polls.

That’s kind of a non sequitur and also kind of wrong. Even if some percentage of the Black vote is suppressed what’s not will still matter.

I don’t think Trump abandoning birtherism per se hurts him with anybody much. A lot of the people answering in polls saying Obama wasn’t born here are expressing contempt for Obama more than anything else. And likewise they like the contempt Trump expresses for the PC Establishment (bipartisan) as they see it. They don’t literally believe a lot of what Trump says. This is true IME for even fairly ‘core’ supporters, those who voted for him in the GOP primaries, let alone the larger part of his 41% overall support (roughly, today’s RCP 4 way avg) who just think he’s not as bad as Clinton or he stands for change (albeit unknown) and she for a known broken status quo.

It didn’t seem to have hurt Trump to waffle around on his previous statements about illegal immigration, though granted he waffled around speaking out of both sides his mouth rather than saying the opposite of his previous position ‘period’. And while that’s also partly a metaphorical issue (for ‘somehow stop the demographic shift away from whites’) it’s got more policy substance at the margin. Saying Obama wasn’t born here is just a BS issue and again IMO a lot of the people going along with birtherism actually realize that. It’s thumbing their nose at the new order, again as they see it.

Trump’s, ostensibly, is to reassure non-supporter or non-core supporter white voters that he’s not a racist, so it’s OK to vote for him if they find Clinton distasteful, as many voters not attached to Trump clearly do. That might not work, and just bringing it up again could be a net negative if it further energizes black and highly race conscious left leaning whites to turn out against him.

Today’s theatrics did also piss off the media, but IMHO it’s distorted view if one doesn’t see that the MSM is already out to get Trump. They liked him when he was mainly bashing and discomfiting the GOP back in the primaries. That stopped awhile ago. And it’s not the media creating a horse race. Face it, the actual electorate is about evenly split as to whether this guy or Hillary is worse, and those abandoning the major parties are also about evenly split between normally GOP voters fleeing him and normally Democratic voters fleeing her, slightly more of the latter actually it seems. But it’s hard to land a telling punch on Trump by the MSM among the voters who count at this point. I don’t think it’s an executives v editors/reporters disagreement whether to try to. Mainly they just aren’t succeeding.

piffle, this really ignores that Trump got a free ride from the media and even a lot more recently. That they are now with more intensity up to get Trump is because they did succeed in making this a horse race so now they can go back to be more “serious”

As for the birtherism, The founder of Breitbart said that Obama’s birth certificate was a fake one. So a lot of the reporting was about pushing that bit of fake news to make it “real” to many.

As anyone can notice on that example Breitbart has been busy whitewashing what the original articles used to say. ending up sounding like that old “I’m not racist, but…”

It likely will mark his inflection point back down. Polls lag a few days but I am thinking that retrospectively this is where he will have been the closest he gets.

Clinton is on the trail again and Trump has changed the narrative from Clinton’s pneumonia to his own history of Birtherism and his odd lying spin about it.

Debate moderators have seen Lauer’s example and will be ready to fact check both candidates during the debates in real time - for the sake of their own future careers and reputations (Lauer’s small chance at being taken seriously is now zip). Clinton be on target with her statements. Trump will make shit up. And be called out when he does.

And both those who marginally support Clinton and who dislike Trump realize that a Trump win is not impossible.

If the polls tightening this week represented him having a chance to win, and them going back to Clinton the +5 range over the next two weeks is him having no chance, then in two weeks this indeed will be judged as where he lost the election.

Put it in the prediction file. What only addie gets one? :slight_smile:

And today she did speak out - very well (I’ll let y’all search Michelle Obama birther to find it).

@DSeid:
I am thinking/hoping this is the closest he gets too but I still have a hard time calling this thumb nose to the media as the inflection point. It’s just coincidentally happening as Hillary gets back on the trail acting normal. IMHO, the health scare gave Trump a short bump but keeping himself mostly constrained is what made it close enough for the bump to look scary.

As someone said in other topic, Trump pulling near even with Clinton may give a good enough scare into Democrats and others to get people off their duffs and help with GOTV and other stuff. It’s likely there were a lot of Clinton supporters who were feeling complacent before the polls tightened

Hillary’s lead is still hemorrhaging at 538. I’m afraid we’ll all be posting to a “how can we impeach this floppy-haired SOB” thread come November.

Donald is still getting the press. Front page coverage for saying Obama was born in America. Front page coverage for that, can you believe that shit? Imagine the coverage he’d get if he declared the US really did land on the moon. The press follows him like a dog chasing a bone.