Donald Trump's 2016 General Election Campaign

[truthSeeker2]

@Qin_Shi_Huangdi

Not really, Japan has problems like a rapidly aging population that the United States does not.

Also TRUMP declares that the national debt isn’t a problem because we can print more money:

Japan’s working age population peaked quite early (in mid 90s). People of working age group work the most and spend the most (a 35 yo is more expected to buy a car or a house than a 70 yo). Working age populations of EU, China and US have peaked recently or will peak soon. I read somewhere that till now, immigration from latin America and from other places helped USA in this regard. BTW the average of growth rates of EU for years from 2006 to 2014 is also low at 0.84% (source). 3 members joined EU after 2006, and I think they may have added GDPs of those 3 countries as well from the year they joined (so actual growth rate may be even lower?, I am not sure).
Trump has absolute clarity of thought on taxes (direct and indirect), wages , debt, trade, jobs, minimum wage, currency exchange rates. People here trying to portray otherwise either don’t understand or haven’t heard his interviews or speeches.

[Johnny_Ace]

whoosh.

[GIGObuster]

@truthSeeker2

Trump has absolute clarity of thought on taxes (direct and indirect), wages , debt, trade, jobs, minimum wage, currency exchange rates. People here trying to portray otherwise either don’t understand or haven’t heard his interviews or speeches.

Trump’s nonsense comes from Trump, it is not just people here saying that, he really has many episodes where Trump forgets what he said before and acts like if his nonsense ideas are the greatest plans.

Donald Trump has no idea what he said one day ago

That interview was a train wreck. Trump’s ignorance and incoherence was on a Charlie Sheen-esque level—except that Trump didn’t have any pharmaceutical help. But he thought everything went fine. Apparently he can’t read a room quite as well as he thinks.

And he’d better be prepared to get treated badly again. Here he is on the national debt:

DT: We’ve got to get rid of the $19 trillion in debt.

BW: How long would that take?

DT: I think I could do it fairly quickly, because of the fact the numbers....

BW: What’s fairly quickly?

DT: Well, I would say over a period of eight years. And I’ll tell you why.

BW: Would you ever be open to tax increases as part of that, to solve the problem?

DT: I don’t think I’ll need to. The power is trade. Our deals are so bad.

So…Trump is somehow going to start running a budget surplus of $2 trillion per year without raising taxes. How? Something to do with trade.

Is this even fact checkable? Or is it, in Wolfgang Pauli’s famous words, so nonsensical that it’s “not even wrong”? In any case, I promise Trump that every quote in this post is a direct quotation. Nobody is making him say words that are totally different from what he’s said. Honestly, there’s no need.

However, the fact that he thinks he’s being constantly misquoted really does make you wonder if he’s all there. He seems awfully sincere about this. He really and truly talks in such a stream of consciousness that he doesn’t even realize what he’s said half the time.

Donald Trump's Deficit Reduction Numbers Are Total Nonsense

Wallace began by noting that Donald Trump’s tax plan would increase the deficit* by a whopping $10 trillion, and that Trump generally dismisses this concern by saying that much of that could be made up by the elimination of waste, fraud, and abuse. So what, specifically, Wallace asked, would Trump cut?

Here’s the relevant part of Trump’s answer:

Department of Education. We're cutting Common Core. We're getting rid of Common Core. We're bringing education locally. Department of Environmental Protection. We are going to get rid are of it in almost every form. We're going to have little tidbits left but we're going to take a tremendous amount out.

We have various other things. If you look at the IRS, if you look at every single agency, we can cut it down, and I mean really cut it down and save. The waste, fraud, and abuse is massive.

Okay, fine. Cut the Department of Education entirely. Eliminate the Environmental Protection Agency (we’ll assume that’s what he meant by “Department of Environmental Protection”).

Even if you managed to completely cut all spending related to those entire departments, it still wouldn’t even begin to eliminate the deficit we already have. As Wallace went on to note, this year’s deficit alone is $544 billion. Trump’s tax plan would add an additional $10 trillion in deficits over the next years. Wallace put this to Trump, telling him, “your numbers don’t add up, sir.”

Tellingly, Trump responded by shifting subjects and bringing up drug costs:

Let me explain something. Because of the fact that the pharmaceutical companies -- because of the fact that the pharmaceutical companies are not mandated to bid properly, they have hundreds of billions of dollars in waste.

We don't bid properly. We don't have proper bidding procedures. The reason we don't is because they take care of all of the senators, all of the congressman, and they don't bid. They don't go out to bid. 

At which point Wallace pointed out that Trump’s numbers—and there’s no other way to put this—are complete and utter nonsense. Here’s the full exchange, via The Washington Post’s transcript:

TRUMP: Take a look – excuse me. You are talking about hundreds of billions of dollars…

WALLACE: No, you are not.

TRUMP: ... if we went out to the proper bid. Of course you are.

WALLACE: No, you're not, sir. Let's put up full screen number 2.

You say that Medicare could save $300 billion a year negotiating lower drug prices. But Medicare total only spends $78 billion a year on drugs. Sir, that's the facts. You are talking about saving more money on Medicare prescription drugs...

TRUMP: I'm saying saving through negotiation throughout the economy, you will save $300 billion a year.

WALLACE: But that doesn't really cut the federal deficit.

TRUMP: And that's a huge -- of course it is. We are going to buy things for less money. Of course it is. That works out...

WALLACE: That's the only money that we buy -- the only drugs that we pay for is through Medicare.

TRUMP: I'm not only talking about drugs, I'm talking about other things. We will save $300 billion a year if we properly negotiate. We don't do that. We don't negotiate. We don't negotiate anything.

**So, to review, here is the structure of the exchange: Wallace asks Trump how he would offset the deficit increases incurred by his tax plan. Trump says waste, fraud, and abuse. Wallace asks Trump to be specific about cuts. Trump says he’d cut the Department of Education, and the EPA. Wallace says that even if you eliminate those programs entirely, it doesn’t even come close to offsetting Trump’s deficit increase. Trump doesn’t respond directly, changes the subject, and brings up drug costs. Wallace points out that Trump’s numbers on drug costs are also completely untethered from reality.

And then Trump insists—well, it’s not totally clear what he ends up saying. But no matter what, it’s absurd.**

It’s possible that he is just babbling incoherently, saying whatever random words come to mind. (“I’m not only talking about drugs, I’m talking about other things.”) It’s possible that he’s trying to argue that when he claims $300 billion in savings, he’s talking about savings throughout the economy. (“I’m saying saving through negotiation throughout the economy, you will save $300 billion a year.”) But if that’s the case, then that’s an admission that the savings he promised from government spending are imaginary. And it’s even possible that what he’s trying to say is that he will cut $300 billion a year from $78 billion in Medicare prescription drug spending. (WALLACE: “But that doesn’t really cut the federal deficit.” TRUMP: “And that’s a huge – of course it is.”) Which would be…impressive, to say the least.

[Johnny_Ace]

More like 3 trillion/yr. with interest.

[truthSeeker2]

For whatever relief he provides on direct taxes, he will increase import duties and other indirect taxes(excise duties, service tax, value added tax) . He won’t talk about indirect taxes at this point (other than import duties) because it will cost him votes.

Decreasing corporate tax (which is a direct tax) incentivises local manufacturing. This is one part. Other part is import duties on imported stuff. The 3rd part is the currency part. He wants low currency, and to me he doesn’t even care about the end of petrodollar which is great IMO.

He is going to be an honest and a bold president for a change in addition to being very smart and charismatic. Great for USA, great for the world.

[Johnny_Ace]

Leaving aside that you seem to know more about what Trump’s going to do than anyone else, including Trump, and not even getting into the negative effects of all those new taxes on the economy…and devaluing the dollar especially…

Congress’ answers to increased:

import duties: No.
excise duties: No.
service tax: Only in India.
VAT: NFW.

[Fear_Itself]

@BrainGlutton

Exactly. His degree was not in economics, it was in ECO-freaking-NOMICS! A special “rocks for jocks” sort of track some colleges offer.

Go Bean Counters!

[oft_wears_hats]

@Johnny_Ace

Every time I’m sure Trump has said the most ignorant thing possible, he proves me wrong. But here’s the punchline: Trump graduated from the Wharton School of Business in 1968. Guess what his degree was?

A B.S. in ECO-freaking-NOMICS!

I shit you not.

Seems appropriate, as Trump has been showing us his Economics BS this whole time.

It boggles my mind when politicians (usually Republicans these days) talk about paring down the IRS to save money. I don’t have time for an independent cite at the moment, but my understanding is that the IRS has a massive return on investment. I thought it was at least 4:1, but this report (Warning: PDF) has it at 255:1 for FY 2013. If anything, we should be giving the IRS more money, not less.

I know they do it because it appeals to voters who want lower taxes, and hate the IRS on principle because taxes are painful. But still, makes me mad.

[wonky]

@truthSeeker2

Trump has absolute clarity of thought on taxes (direct and indirect), wages , debt, trade, jobs, minimum wage, currency exchange rates. People here trying to portray otherwise either don’t understand or haven’t heard his interviews or speeches.

@truthSeeker2

He is going to be an honest and a bold president for a change in addition to being very smart and charismatic. Great for USA, great for the world.

Donald Trump is the kindest, bravest, warmest, most wonderful human being I’ve ever known in my life.

[GrandWino]

@Johnny_Ace

Every time I’m sure Trump has said the most ignorant thing possible, he proves me wrong. But here’s the punchline: Trump graduated from the Wharton School of Business in 1968. Guess what his degree was?

A B.S. in ECO-freaking-NOMICS!

I shit you not.

I’m no Trump fan but didn’t Alan Greenspan suggest printing more money to help the debt just a few years ago? It’s not that ridiculous a suggestion. Now, if you print too much all at once, you’ll get hyperinflation - but there are still levels you can print more money at that might tick inflation up a tad but it still can help in the short term.

[truthSeeker2]

@jsgoddess

Donald Trump is the kindest, bravest, warmest, most wonderful human being I’ve ever known in my life.

This is slightly exaggerated, I think.

[running_coach]

@jsgoddess

Donald Trump is the kindest, bravest, warmest, most wonderful human being I’ve ever known in my life.

Your…your…hair! It’s…changing!!! :eek:

[JohnT]

@jsgoddess

Donald Trump is the kindest, bravest, warmest, most wonderful human being I’ve ever known in my life.

Better not let Raymond Shaw hear you say that.

[Kolak_of_Twilo]

The more I read this thread the more a certain part of me wants Trump to win and implement his hare-brained ideas so the people supporting him will get to see first hand what a total imbecile he truly is.

But then I realize, I wouldn’t really enjoy all the misery it would cause in my life when he succeeds at completely wrecking the economy and flushing the country down the toilet.
So, nyah.

[Johnny_Ace]

@jsgoddess

Donald Trump is the kindest, bravest, warmest, most wonderful human being I’ve ever known in my life.

I just spit up my coffee. Please, not while I’m drinking.

[running_coach]

Trump campaign manager Corey Lewandowski will oversee the vice-presidential search

Lewandowski, Trump’s traveling confidant and campaign manager, will be in charge of the** team that will survey and vet potential vice-presidential candidates** for the presumptive GOP presidential nominee, two top Republicans said.

I doubt they’ll put that much effort into it. He’ll just pull someone out of the crowd.

[Moriarty]

@Starving_Artist

According to his filings with the Federal Election Commission, Trump is the owner or serves in an executive capacity some 515 businesses, of which 268 contain his name only, which implies full ownership of those businesses at least. Trump has taken exactly four of his businesses into bankruptcy, and even those aren’t the types of bankruptcy most people are familiar with where the slate is wiped clean and creditors lose everything. Trump’s organization took those four companies into Chapter 11 bankruptcy, which allows the the debtor to reorganize the business in an attempt to save it. In the event the debtor becomes insolvent, its creditors take over the reorganized business, whereupon they’re free to run it or sell it off themselves. Thus there’s at least some chance in a Chapter 11 bankruptcy that the businesses’ creditors may recover all or some of their original investment, with additional profits possible in the event the business’s creditors are able to operate the reorganized business successfully.

So it’s utter nonsense to say Trump has ‘built his career on stiffing bondholders’, and in the interest of fighting ignorance people around here really need to wise up and stop making that claim.

While I agree with your general sentiment (that Trump has not “built his career on stiffing bondholders” - it was a feature, not the foundation - and that Chapter 11 is a means to try to save investors and creditors who might otherwise get stiffed), I do not concur with your casual dismissal of Trump’s bankruptcies.

This was not a situation like with Mitt Romney, who was part of a group that acquired businesses at a discount and then might put them into Bankruptcy to reorganize and recoup the value. Each one of Trump’s bankruptcies came at some personal cost, and each was a reflection of his poor business stewardship.

The first was of the Trump Taj Mahal in 1991, and was around the time that he personally owed some $900 million. He had to sell his personal mega-yacht and his airline, Trump Shuttle. And he had to give up controlling ownership of the Taj Mahal.

In 1992, his other Atlantic City casinos went into bankruptcy. Although Trump was allowed to retain ownership, he did have to give up half his stake in New York Plaza to Citibank.

In 2004, Trump Hotel & Casino Resorts went into bankruptcy, and as a consequence, Trump had to give up majority control of the company.

And, finally, Trump Entertainment Resorts filed for BK in 2009, which resulted in him resigning from the board and giving up his stake in the company.

So, no, Mr. Trump has not made his entire career feasting on investors (although he has tried to bilk them a time or two). But Trump is also not some business savant who uses strategic bankruptcies to garner wealth, either.
…
Rather, he’s the businessman who famously once said that “If you owe a bank thousands, you have a problem; owe a bank millions, the bank has a problem”. And that is why I think he is sincere when he talks about negotiating down the U.S. debt. In his life, he has gone through bankruptcies telling his creditors, essentially, you need for me to survive if you want your money back. And I think he believes that is his “solution” to the U.S. debt: he thinks he can go to China, threaten to default, and force them to accept a deal.

This, of course, is nonsense, for lots of reasons detailed in this thread. But I truly think that’s where his mind is at, and is but one indicator of the true global danger of a Trump presidency.

[kenobi_65]

@truthSeeker2

Trump has absolute clarity of thought on taxes (direct and indirect), wages , debt, trade, jobs, minimum wage, currency exchange rates. People here trying to portray otherwise either don’t understand or haven’t heard his interviews or speeches.

In Trump’s campaign speeches during the early part of the campaign, he would state that he planned to raise taxes on the wealthiest Americans.

Then, when he actually released his tax plan a few months ago, the actual plan showed that the highest tax bracket would have their tax rate decrease.

On Sunday, he told an interviewer that the plan which he had announced would not actually happen as he stated – that it was of course all subject to negotiation, and that taxes would go up on the wealthy.

Then, yesterday, he backtracked on this, and said, “no, what I meant is that the wealthiest wouldn’t have their taxes cut as much as my original tax plan suggested”.

This is “absolute clarity of thought”?

[Johnny_Ace]

@Moriarty

(snippety snip)

Rather, he’s the businessman who famously once said that “If you owe a bank thousands, you have a problem; owe a bank millions, the bank has a problem”. And that is why I think he is sincere when he talks about negotiating down the U.S. debt. In his life, he has gone through bankruptcies telling his creditors, essentially, you need for me to survive if you want your money back. And I think he believes that is his “solution” to the U.S. debt: he thinks he can go to China, threaten to default, and force them to accept a deal.

This, of course, is nonsense, for lots of reasons detailed in this thread. But I truly think that’s where his mind is at, and is but one indicator of the true global danger of a Trump presidency.

No problem…he’ll just declare BK for the country and sell off, say, Texas.

[wonky]

@Johnny_Ace

No problem…he’ll just declare BK for the country and sell off, say, Texas.

Donald Trump is the kindest, bravest, warmest, most wonderful human being I’ve ever known in my life.