I acknowledge that Clinton is still, by most accounts, winning the race, especially in terms of the electoral vote.
But people who think the race is over right now remind me of sports writers who declare a championship series over because no team has ever come back from a 3-1 or 3-0 deficit. Nobody is capable of such a feat – until someone actually pulls it off.
I quoted this earlier today in a different thread, but it applies here as well. Sam Wang, of Princeton Election Consortium, who has spent way more time looking at way more polls and doing way more math, doesn’t see much volatility in the results this year, either in terms of comparisons with elections past or from month to month. That stability is why Wang has Clinton’s win probability in the 85-90%.
He’s addressed this, too. There’s a lot more volatility this time around, due to the large number of undecideds.
Plus those numbers you mention support what they are doing. Trump has around a 1 in 3 chance of winning in his models. So the narrative that he could still win is valid.
Nationally, they have the gap by which Clinton is winning going down. Clinton is at 41.9% compared to Trump’s 38.9% (and Johnson 8.4%). Just two weeks ago it was 43.4% and 47.3%. Polls tend to have Clinton at +2 or +3.
As much as I wish it weren’t true, the gap is shrinking. That’s not a horse race. It’s just facts.
And everyone, from Jon Favreau of “Keeping it 1600” to the Politico Nerdcast to Silver himself all predicted a narrowing of the polls to occur at this time… and, wow, it’s happening. :rolleyes:
They also say the polls show Clinton has an almost insurmountable lead regardless of the expected narrowing
Detailed article about how Trump is skimping on every other aspect of his campaign, but spending campaign donors money lavishly on events at locations he owns, far above market price.
Disgusting! If anyone had any doubts about what a Trump presidency would be like this should end them. Siphoning off as much tax payer money as possible to himself and his children, driving the US more into debt. Corrupt Trump!, put him in Jail!
I’ve lost faith in the news media’s ability to report on such scandals with any impact. They move from one tweet or TMZ photo upload to the next. We’re living in a new age of yellow journalism. And that’s one of the reasons why I would be very, very careful about using data and polling trend precedents from prior elections to forecast what might happen in this one. This election, simply put, has no precedent. All bets are off.
That may well be true - I happen to agree with you. But that’s all part of the election in 2016, like it or not. The media wants a horse race. The voters can decide whether to give them one. Right now, the voters quite literally can’t make up their minds. This wouldn’t be so worrisome if we had two qualified candidates, but that’s not the case. We have a highly unqualified candidate who horrifies many of us but simultaneously entertains the hell out of everyone else, and we have very qualified candidate who we just can’t seem to get attracted to. We have third party candidates thrown into the mix for people who just hate the system, and the number of those voters is growing, to the detriment of both main party candidates.
Huffpost looking into the Bondi bribe allegations. Probably building up some of the investigative reporting of the above link, one of the interesting things they found is a comparison between what he charged the Republican party, and what you charged his campaign, for the same venue.
So, looking at that CNN poll, it was noticed that they heavily sampled uneducated white voters, essentially making them 1/2 of the population. Renormalizing* the results to match the 2012 electorate, it is found that Clinton is actually +4.
is that a word? If so, did I even use it correctly?
