Sure, if you go by RCP’s highly silly and simplistic numbers, which were absurd.
538 figured Obama had a lead of three points, based on far superior analysis. Sam Wang, also vastly superior, figured 2.5 percent. RCP did not do a very good job in 2012.
In 2008 - when Obama’s GOTV effort was EXTREMELY strong - he did outperform the 538 projection by a point, so I did misremember that.
Sure, if you go by RCP’s highly silly and simplistic numbers, which were absurd. They place perfect confidence in Rasmussen, a pollster that incorrectly called six of nine swing states.
538 figured Obama had a lead of three points, based on far superior analysis. Sam Wang, also vastly superior, figured 2.5 percent. RCP did not do a very good job in 2012.
In 2008 - when Obama’s GOTV effort was EXTREMELY strong - he did outperform the 538 projection by a point, so I did misremember that.
Hmm. I’d say he’s got to be in the high 80s by now.
Nice! Hope it really takes hold.
Everyone knows Making America Great Again means whole numbers only.
Long overdue, but the Trumpanistas will pay no attention.
Anything that brings him attention and/or upsets The Enemy is to the good, as far as they are concerned. There is no shame or regret to be had or found.
Where were you when the AP was not just investigating but outright lying about the clinton foundation?
Nate Silver is the reason I knew you were wrong. On the 538 podcast, he has repeatedly stated that Obama outperformed his polls in 2012.
The final 538 prediction says:
Nor does Sam Wang help your case:
That would be a margin of victory of 2.2 points.
Obama’s actual margin of victory, of course, was nearly double that: 3.9 points.
You’re forgetting or ignoring the first rule of holes: stop digging. You made the following bold assertion:
And this assertion was flat wrong. Obama overperformed rather than underperformed his polls. Therefore your whole thesis is blown to smithereens. Just accept it and move on.
It’s been awhile since this story broke, but did we cover the time Trump had a botched surgery to remove a bald spot and then raped Ivana because of it?
Do they need to pay attention? A barrage of attacks of every direction will likely put him back in self destruct mode, more so, I would think, if his ills can be spun as a politically motivated attack by the Dems and the LSM. As the polls from his early August meltdown show, he can easily alienate independent voters, and probably many of his less deplorable supporters if this happens, especially since he will begin debating HRC in two weeks.
Yep, I always thought GOP trickle down was warm and yellow.
Newsweek Goes Nuclear
In The Company of Trump - Trump’s global deals would make it impossible for him to conduct foreign policy in many countries without padding or depleting his wallet.
On Newsweek this morning:
“How the Trump Organization’s Foreign Business Ties Could Upend U.S. National Security”
I haven’t had a chance to read it yet.
ETA: Ninja’ed by skdo23
“A close examination by Newsweek of the Trump Organization, including confidential interviews with business executives and some of its international partners, reveals an enterprise with deep ties to global financiers, foreign politicians and even criminals, although there is no evidence the Trump Organization has engaged in any illegal activities. It also reveals a web of contractual entanglements that could not be just canceled. If Trump moves into the White House and his family continues to receive any benefit from the company, during or even after his presidency, almost every foreign policy decision he makes will raise serious conflicts of interest and ethical quagmires.”
If I’m counting correctly, there were seven arrests for fightingat Monday’s Trump rally in Asheville.
http://www.bloomberg.com/politics/articles/2016-09-14/ohio-poll
With eyes wide open, a culture that binges on fast food, reality TV, fantasy football, and social media memes is getting dangerously close to ushering a nightmarish new chapter in our history while the rest of us watch in disbelief and horror.
I wish I could believe that the Newsweek article would change people’s minds. My fear is that the true believers won’t care.
Maybe not, but undecided voters in OH, PA, NC & FL probably will.
Does this sound like a man fit for the Presidency? Are the many many disgusting facts about Trump getting proper media attention?
Even if we’re lucky and Hillary finally wins 45% to 40%, this election will never be forgotten. America’s soul was put on display and found wanting.
No, you’re right; I reversed the two numbers in my head. My error.
Unless you have some other cite, several of those arrests were for trespassing and possession, not “fighting”
Fixed it for you.
See how that works?