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541

Actually, we have 2 mislynches if there are 4 scum and no other kill methods than lynch and night kill.

Worst case scenario:

We lynch town toDay. Scum succeeds their night kill toNight. toMorrow that leaves us with 4 scum, 6 town.

We lynch town toMorrow. Scum succeeds their night kill that Night. That leaves us for the next day with 4 scum, 4 town. This does not end the game, because to quote our mod:

(Bolding mine)

So scum aren’t in the majority yet. However, this is a bad situation for town, because at this point scum can all vote for the same person, and force a tie. Each Day. Odds are that they’ll likely win the coin flip at least once in the possibly 4 attempts. Of course, this assumes that they successfully night kill each night. And if the Doctor’s still around, they might not try to go for the forced tie, because it will pretty much expose all of them.

So if scum ever are blocked from a night kill, (in which case town will have at least one more member than they do) we have at least two full mislynches to play with. If they aren’t, we have a full mislynch and a mislynch that gets us into a bad, but not guaranteed to lose, situation. In either case, one mislynch won’t get us to lynch-or-lose. It will take two.

542

I’m not sure that everyone would have changed their vote if Thing Fish appeared less scummy than they originally thought. Look at the scrutiny that RyJae and I have been under for doing just that!

I will do my best to try to explain why I switched my vote off of Thing Fish. In post #314, **Thing Fish ** writes one of his first long responses to all of the accusations against him. This is what first causes my doubt. When laid out in a list like that, the arguments against him just don’t seem as compelling as I first thought. For example, Thing Fish’s “advice to newbies” seems more like innocent general strategy than malicious scumminess.

In post #331, I ask bufftabby to elaborate on her post # 329 in which she asked why it would be silly to vote for anyrose, and that she thought that anyrose had manufactured reasons to vote against Thing Fish. At this point in the game I was having doubts about my vote on Thing Fish and I really wanted to hear what other people thought on the situation.

In post #335 **Thing Fish ** responds to RyJae’s question of what he would do differently. This post just seems really simple and straightforward to me. Rather than talk about who he would vote for, or a better strategy, **Thing Fish ** simply talks about communicating his intentions more clearly. I think that if he were scum, he would try to lay the blame elsewhere, or try to come up with some other desperate strategy.

However, I think the post that removed most of my doubt was #338. In this post **Thing Fish ** talks about the importance of voting records, laying out what seems like a good strategy for finding scum. He makes some good points about RyJae jumping on bandwagons, and he really made me think about one of my reasons for voting for him - I thought that he was giving himself an out with his vote on anyrose. By post # 338, I no longer thought that was very likely.

In post #343 I told Thing Fish that I thought that he explained himself better in his last several posts than he had previously, and that I wanted to look back over his posts in the thread to make sure that I was making the right decision.

In post #350 bufftabby responded with the information that I had requested of her in post #331. She laid out her reasons for thinking that anyrose was manufacturing reasons to vote against Thing Fish, and she commented on Thing Fish’s “advice to newbies” as well. I thought that what she said made sense! (As an aside, I think that it would be fair to point out at this point that bufftabby’s argument that I piggybacked on her reasons to vote for anyrose is not really true. I had many reasons to no longer suspect Thing Fish, and anyrose was the next logical person for me to vote for. bufftabby’s post #350 just helped me to make some of my ideas a little more coherent in my own mind.)

Finally, in post #353, I responded to what bufftabby wrote, commenting that maybe **Thing Fish ** was just defending himself against anyrose and not really intending to act scummy. So, since I no longer wanted to vote for Thing Fish, I had to find another place for my vote. Since I wasn’t really sure who was scum at this point, I decided to vote for the person who was helping town the least…anyrose.

I decided to place my vote on anyrose, because I didn’t think that she had really done much to help town. I know that she eventually asked to be replaced, but I don’t think that because of this you can automatically discount everything that she said and did up to that point in the game. Of course hindsight is always 20/20, but at that point, on Day 1, I had to work with the limited information that we had available to us. Hence my vote for anyrose.

543

Not necessarily - if you are the cop and BM is some sort of Godfather power role who reads “town”, then your dying will only screw the town over. So if you’re protected, the scum may or may not target BM. If BM is protected, scum still may or may not target him (whether or not he’s town, scum, or Godfather) because they might want to muddy the waters, which could throw suspicion on you if you ARE the cop, or give you an out if you’re false claiming (“They didn’t go after me so you wouldn’t trust me!” In other words, I’m not sure that with only one investigation result that we’ll really be able to predict/use anything we learn toNight.

Sorry, I know that’s really WIFOM.

544

(Bolding Mine)

While I think I understand your point (i.e. Ryjae’s investigation of BlaM does not confirm BlaM because Ryjae isn’t confirmed yet, and even if Ryjae is does get confirmed, a godfather Blam is still possible), the bolded part is flat out wrong as far as I can tell.

I can’t see why scum would ever target themselves for a night kill. There’s no advantage. While scum can throw other scum under the bus for townie cred, there are a lot of disadvantages to bussing scum as well. But at least with a lynch, scum can control town in some way. They can mainpulate and scheme their way into a win. A night kill of fellow scum provides none of this benefit. It’s a way for scum to decrease their numbers and give town potentially a lot of info, without getting any real benefit.

Although, if scum want to night kill themselves, more power to them.

545

Interesting turn of events. For what it’s worth, Ryjae, I appreciate you giving us a bit of lead time to consider another candidate.

I would like to echo Blaster Master’s suggestion that the Detective, if not Ryjae, not come forward for now. If this is a scum tactic, it’ll likely come out soon enough - for now, you’re better off staying incognito at least for to-Day. After all it’s a gamble with very little risk for someone who was pretty much the major lynch candidate - and one that could pay off big time if the Detective outs him/herself prematurely.

Additionally, the Town should not consider Blaster Master or Ryjae confirmed.

546

I think I WIFOM-confused myself - what I meant was that just because scum doesn’t kill BM does not mean that he is or isn’t town.

547

Oh good lord, are we really gonna bring up snuggling again? I did not do a lot of snuggling. I did a lot of asking for examples of it, however. Can’t say anybody came through for me on that part. I would also say I didn’t do a lot of “me too!” votes. I may have voted for similar reasons as other people, but that’s not the same as posting someone else’s reasons (mine), and saying (Unkempt One) “you’re right, me too”. That point is pretty much moot now anyway, after this post:

This really helps me a lot. I didn’t feel like you really explained your vote well enough previously, Unkempt One. That post, however, makes everything crystal clear. Your vote for anyrose came off as extreme piggy-backing from my vote. It seemed like a scum move, using someone else’s reasons so blatantly. It reeked of scum opportunism, but now I see that you really did have plenty of reasons, you just didn’t really express them. I understand that you explained yourself well enough in regards to unvoting Thing Fish, but, until now, I haven’t felt like you explained your subsequent vote of anyrose well enough. This feels like my suspicion of Nanook of the North Shore in the last game (for those of you familiar with Simpletown). It was reasonably founded, but still wrong. So:

unvote the Unkempt One

I need to take another look at toDay’s posts, to confirm a sneaking suspicion I have on another player. Vote pending.

548

I forgot to add, while I am unsure of whether I believe his claim, for the moment I will

unvote RyJae

549

An assortment of cheap shots, deep thoughts and bon mots on various topics:

I would be interested in hearing BlaM and/or fluid expand on why the Detective shouldn’t respond to RyJae’s (hypothetically) false roleclaim now. I guess the benefit of having the real Detective get a few more investigations in outweighs the disadvantage of having RyJae able to mislead us for another few Days? At what point do you think the Detective should come forward, and does that change depending on whether or not there is a false Detective giving out bad info? I feel safe in asking this question, since I assume everyone can agree that I definitely do not have a Town power role, or I probably would have mentioned it when I had eight votes!
But in keeping with my commitment to clearly stating my intention: I am just asking for general strategy thoughts here, and am NOT suggesting or implying that the Detective SHOULD out himself at this point!

I think Unkempt has done a good job of outlining the timeline on his vote change, and has effectively rebutted bufftabby’s assertion that his vote change came out of the blue and was entirely piggybacking on her. Besides, even if it had been a piggyback, that strikes me as more of a newbie tell than anything. Of course, the fact that Unkempt had laid some groundwork for his vote change doesn’t say anything compelling that I can see about what the motivation for the change was. I can see very plausible town or scum motivations for that switch, but unfortunately for Unkempt, I can’t really see any equally plausible scum motivation for anything anyone else has done at this point (except RyJae, who has now made a roleclaim which I feel should be tentatively accepted).

peekercpa, could you expand on your argument that RyJae and Unkemptare unlikely to both be scum? We know their actions were taken independently, since, even if scum, they couldn’t have communicated yet. Seems to me that verifying the alignment of one of them wouldn’t at all affect my level of suspicion of the other.

Oredigger, you wanted comments on your vote for me. I’m against it. :stuck_out_tongue:
Seriously, it seems like there are only two possibilities. You could review Day One assuming first that I’m town, then that I’m scum, and see if those assumptions lead you to differing conclusions about who seems most suspicious. If so, then the vote for me would be reasonable, but it doesn’t seem like too much to ask that you first do that exercise rather than just killing me to save you doing half the work.

What do people think of cckerboros’ analysis in 445, where he assumes I’m town, further assumes that scum would have a motivation to lay low once a Townie lynch was assured, and examines changes in posting patterns before and after I took a big lead? This analysis makes BlaM, Hoopy, and **peeker ** look most suspicious. I think it is very interesting but not ultimately that convincing. Real life stuff always seems to me like the simplest explanation for changes in post frequency (and in BlaM’s case, he warned us ahead of time that it was coming). Besides, although scum might have a stronger motivation to do so, I can easily imagine town also losing interest once a Day’s outcome seems assured. Still, I think it is great that cck put so much effort into providing us with analysis (unless he turns out to be scum trying to mislead us), and I wanted to at least acknowledge his efforts, since nobody else had.

I am eager to hear what our veterans have to say about how to deal with early roleclaims, but it seems like the consensus is that they should be taken seriously for the time being. So for now:

unvote RyJae
vote The Unkempt One

For some reason, my work computer offers only these weird off-shades rather than regular red and blue.

550

correcting to put “vote” in color (and I found the proper colors! yay!):

unvote RyJae
vote The Unkempt One

551

My motivation is pretty clear, I think. I *didn’t want * to vote for someone that I thought was town. I wanted to vote for someone who was scum, or at the very least not very helpful to town. My ultimate goal is to lynch as many scum as possible, and my vote change was an attempt to work toward that.

552

Thanks! (it was actually #475, BTW) I agree that the chart is interesting but not particularly convincing since there are a number of reasons why someone post rate would change. Perhaps when the game is over it might be worthwhile to do an overall analysis of all the rates. I’ll know who is what then and perhaps the rate fluctuations due to RL issues will even out over time.

553

Also, Thing Fish, I don’t know what to make of the fact that you plead your case all Day long on Day 1, giving reason after reason how your were misunderstood, and how you need to communcate better, etc…and when someone actually listens to what you have to say and believes you, you turn around and put a vote on them!

What did you hope to gain by pleading your case at the end of Day 1? Did you want people to believe you and vote for someone else? Were you simply grandstanding and trying to go out with a bang, or did you really hope that your arguments would help you stay in the game?

Seems like a pretty crummy situation. It looked like you really wanted people to believe you, and when I did, you vote to lynch me.

I can understand many of the other votes against me, but I don’t understand yours.

554

Well Thing I took your advice and reread day one and it didn’t help at all. RyJae was one of the first to get people talk about you but not the first he also was quick to start talking about anyrose at the end of the day but slower to jump off your wagon. Unkempt was early to vote for you #3 but there were plenty before him talking about you he started commenting on anyrose before RyJae but bailed after RyJae.

These actions do tend point to a lot of things because there are few facts. Basically we have six possible scenarios; No one is scum, your scum and they’re not, your scum and one of them is, all of you are scum, your town and so are they, your town and one of them is scum and finally your town and they are both scum. Each of these scenarios gives them different motivations behind their actions. Although I think that all of you being scum seems unlikely because of the lack of pregame communication between scum so independently two scum would have to decide to build town cred by throwing another scum under the bus. In my mind all of the other scenarios are still in play. But if can confirm your status we can eliminate a majority of them and gain insight into what the scum saw.

Any chance I can get a non-biased opinion? :smiley:

555

unvote RyJae for the moment. I have to consider things some more before placing my vote on someone else.

556

Vote Count
**The Unkempt One - 5 ** (Hoopy Frood, fluiddruid, Blaster Master, peekercpa, Thing Fish)
**Oredigger77 - 2 ** (RyJae, peekercpa)
**fluiddruid - 1 ** (The Unkempt One)
**Thing Fish - 1 ** (Oredigger77)

Not Voting
Dotchan, bufftabby, Zsofia, cckerberos

557

Well, let’s assume for the sake of discussion that he’s scum. Why would he misclaim? To buy himself some time, most likely. However, in doing so the real detective now knows he’s lying and has an additional investigation, whatever it was last Night. This means, he can continue to investigate for another Night or Two and ultimately have several extra pieces of information. In the meantime, our false detective is forced to provide us with information, which is very risky. If he keeps returning info about who just died, he looks suspicious, if he identifies scum as town and that person gets lynched, he’s uncovered. If the scum find and kill the real detective or the real detective claims, he’s screwed. Bottom line, if he’s lying he WILL be discovered eventually, and certainly before the game is over (as, if the real detective doesn’t even claim in a lylo situation, he’s gallactically stupid).

That said, in the meantime, leaving him alive does us no harm provided we don’t put any real weight behind his investigations. If he shows up dead, all of his investigations are then 100% confirmed. If any of his investigations show up dead and they’re wrong, he’s scum. The only caution we should take is in an example where someone shows up as town (which happens to be my case). I may or may not be suspicious to you, but unless there’s good reason to suspect me more than someone who isn’t investigated, there’s more risk in lynching me simply because I have the potential to become confirmed town, which is very valuable in endgame.

OTOH, if the real detective comes forth, we have only his current investigation, and a tough choice between the two detectives on which one is telling the truth and which one is lying. And it really doesn’t buy us anything because, as I pointed out, the false detective WILL be found out before lylo.

FTR, even if you can’t use the drop down, you can still type them in manually using the **** tags and setting either red or blue as the color

558

Okay, change of strategy. I’m not terribly confident in my Unkempt One vote at this time. His lack of defense, to me, seems like bad logic and not necessarily bad motivation. So, I went back and took at look at the final vote count Yesterday, interestingly enough, there were two one-off votes, one from Hoopy and one from fluid. I find the one from Hoopy rather suspicious because he’s voting for the “lurkingest” player, which he states AFTER our illustrious mod stated that twickster was being replaced. He also said he would wait to change his vote until after the replacement chimed in, which she did late in the day, to which he responded essentially “sorry, already voted for you for being the lurky.”

Not to mention, he made that last post right at the end of the day, just before Thing Fish changed his vote. But, he’d carefully dodged the primary discussion about Thing Fish and anyrose with lots of talk about other games, like Batman. Was he staying away because both were town and one was going down? Perhaps, unlike Unkempt who made an obvious move that could potentially (and ultimately did) condemn a townie, he was afraid of drawing that level of contention? The logic of leaving a vote on a lurky player who is clearly NOT lurky due to not actually being played for most of the Day is distinctly anti-town logic for which I cannot determine a pro-town motivation.

This seems pretty scummy to me, and I’d like to hear plenty more from him about his motivations.

Unvote The Unkempt One
Vote Hoopy Frood

559

Well, I did put my vote in before the replacement was announced, and I did say that I was leaving it there until I heard a bit from the replacement.

This was all we got from the Dotchan before the Day ended:

That’s it. The last post she did that Day did have substance, but it was after the Day ended. So I couldn’t change my post at that point (and what would have been the point to do so anyway). I was waiting for her to chime in. There were 3 hours left in the Day when she chimed in with the above, and when I came back there was less than half an hour left. I wasn’t particularly seeing either bandwagon as a good choice at that point, and as I said, real life had gotten in the way for a bit. (Heck, there were six hours between my last two posts that Day and the whole anyrose bandwagon started during that window.) So I had about 45 minutes to analyze everything, and figure out who I wanted to throw my vote on in spite of saying that my Day 1 strategy was to vote a lurker barring what I saw as a better choice. Was my strategy bad? Quite possibly. But I’m still trying to get a feel for what to do on Day 1, and I was consistent with what I said I was going to do and without time to do serious analysis on the anyrose/thingfish thing, I don’t think it would have been any more pro-town to throw a badly reasoned vote out there.

560

NETA: And the “less than half an hour” bit should have said “more than half an hour”.