I didn’t say that I disbelieve you, and I certainly will be looking over cckerberos’ posts when I get a chance. If you want to consider the matter closed, I suppose that’s your prerogative, ryjae, but I don’t find that attitude especially helpful.
Real quick since I am on my way to Amistad. But I’ve just got to say what in the world. The doc and three other vanillas - bad mojo going on in this town for the time being.
I just kind of skimmed so far but RyJay suggesting that we lynch him seems freaking odd. If you are who you say you are this would be the most anti town advice I have ever encountered.
I’ll get more fully caught up in a couple of hours. So this is just a “rest stop” obvservation.
It’s just as helpful as everyone that voted for TUO when his only fault was doing the exact same thing as me. Yet he hung, even when it was explained as clearly as possible by both of us.
Oredigger77 escaped yesterday, and he knows how close he was. He is as scummy as scum is scummy. I don’t even need to investigate him to know this, just his posts following mine are proof enough. Scum board plan followed through, and if I’m lucky he will go down when I die.
Zsofia was a town on that vote for TUO, and that’s just a shame because I think she was the minority in that voting group, yes broad brush and yes I think I’m right. Towns hosed, I see no other way of saving us from us, they have dictated since day 1 and like sheeples we followed right along for the ride.
Anti-town is allowing the scum to argue about me all day, where if I can convince even the town to just vote for me and then discuss the true scum we have achieved something.
You’re proposing me fight it out back and forth all day etc is worthless it gains the scum another day to sit back and laugh as there plan becomes more fulfilled. If its decided I die, we lose a townie a few hours early (because not a shot in hell I live through the night) but in doing so confirm one for sure scum and another might as well have been checked scum.
Wow, this sure is a great thing to wake up to.
RyJae, I cannot think of any possible reason why a pro-Town player would advocate the “lynch me” strategy you’re pursuing. If the original estimates of 4 scum were correct then we’re down to 6-4. With both our Doctor and Vigilante dead we’re guaranteed a successful scum night kill tonight, so lynching Town today would bring us down to 4-4 tomorrow. That would be very, very bad for Town, even if it did confirm 1 scum and 1 town. I can’t think of a good reason for scum to advocate a “lynch me” strategy (barring some odd role) unless it’s some kind of reverse psychology goal in which everyone is supposed to be impressed by your willingness to “sacrifice” yourself for the good of the town and votes for me. But whatever… the important thing is that I really don’t think any pro-Town player would advocate what you are. I can certainly think of reasons why a scum forced to claim as detective in order to save their neck would point out a Townie for lynching in this situation, though.
Two people in their votes yesterday referred to The Unkempt One as the “poor man’s” RyJae when voting for him: Zsofia and myself. Now Zsofia’s dead, proven doctor, and I’ve been fingered to get lynched. Well, that’s not going to happen.
RyJae, you have no credibility. Your desperate roleclaim is all that saved you yesterday. If anything, the case against you is even stronger now than it was when you made your claim. The last victim was very suspicious of you and your voting record yesterday was very strange. I already made this point in 572, but it’s worth repeating: you placed your vote on Oredigger77 yesterday based on very flimsy evidence (a comment by Koldanar that wasn’t even a FoS). That was the very first post of the Day. Blaster Master mentioned at the time that the vote’s rationale was odd. You then proceeded to leave your vote there unchanged for the entire Day. If you ever defended this vote or discussed any other possible suspects at all during the entire Day, I missed it. Actually, looking back now I don’t think you made a single post Yesterday after your roleclaim (and the few posts explaining it). Did you say anything in the last 48 hours before the deadline? If not, how do you explain that?
If there’s a case to be made against me, I’ll answer any accusations made to the best of my ability. But you’re going to have to do better than just point a finger at me and say “I investigated him; he’s scum.”
I strongly suspected you were scum earlier and now I know it:
vote RyJae
Not a surprising response from cckerberos, but I’m a bit surprised at Oredigger.
Frankly at this point I don’t think we need to expend a possible Detective role in order to confirm. I’d rather keep Ryjae at this point. We’ve already lost the Doctor so if Ryjae is indeed the Detective, he will be the most likely next target. If he’s not dead in a day or two, or if cckerberos comes up Town, we can revisit it. I think this is unlikely, I’m pretty convinced here.
The question is - should a Detective come out if it’s not Ryjae? I’m inclined to say yes. I really don’t think we can stand to lose any more Town and a confirmed town bloc would be very helpful at this point (or, being able to get a sure lynch).
As far as I’m concerned, I’m ready to lynch a scum player right about now. More than ready.
Vote cckerberos
I’ll be out of town starting tomorrow but after the Memorial Day holiday I plan to pore through cckerberos’ posts in the thread so far.
Oh man, this is not good at all.
Votes for Day 2:
Ryjae: OD77 (406)
Thing Fish: RyJae (414), Unkempt (549)
Zsofia: RyJae (442), unvote (548), Unkempt (578)
cckerboros: RyJae (445), unvotes (555), Unkempt (572)
Hoopy: Unkempt (465)
bufftabby: Unkempt (474), unvote (547), OD77 (569)
Unkempt: fluiddruid (480)
fluiddruid: Unkempt (493)
peekercpa: RyJae (500), Unkempt (510), OD77 (529)
Blaster: Unkempt (504), Hoopy (558), OD77 (587)
Oredigger: thing Fish (527), Unkempt (late)
dotchan: never voted
Overall final voting records:
cckerboros: anyrose, Unkempt
dotchan: anyrose, no vote
Thing Fish: anyrose, Unkempt
Oredigger77: Thing Fish, Unkempt
bufftabby: anyrose, OD77
RyJae: anyrose, OD77
Hoopy: dotchan, Unkempt
fluiddruid: peekercpa, Unkempt
Blaster: Thing Fish, OD77
peekercpa: Thing Fish, OD77
Sorry I am on a sucky computer, no neat color coding this week.
I’ve gotta believe that a RyJay lynch is the absolutely worst thing that we can do. If he truly is the detec then we would be basically be handing this game to the scum. I don’t consider him totally confirmed but the next night will do that for us one way or the other.
And on re read I apologize for constantly screwing the pooch on RyJae’s name.
Damn scum. Making me throw away that whole post I composed over the weekend explaining why I was voting for, um, Zsofia. :smack: I am starting to think I really suck at this game.
But at least I don’t give up easily…
Seems to me that the real Detective, if there is one, should come forward. NOT RIGHT NOW, please wait until the others have had time to weigh in, since as noted above, I suck. However, since there was a Vig (and boy, what great use we made of him) it seems likely to me that there are probably 4 scum, meaning it is now 6-4 and we are one more mislynch away from being in a situation practically indistinguishable from lylo. I don’t think we can afford to take the risk.
So if nobody comes forward today, then RyJae is genuine and our choices get much simpler, though we still need to talk about whether to lynch cckerboros today or save him for dessert. Seems to me that if we think we may be in lylo, we need to take the bird in the hand, but I would like to hear what others have to say.
Based on the voting patterns and my reread, I don’t find it too implausible that cck could be scum. He hasn’t really had too much to say, and he is the only living player to have managed to vote for both of our mislynches (other than, uh, me, but at least I had the self-defense motivation on Day One).
After getting hot and bothered about OD77 as the deadline neared, I was less enthusiastic about him over the weekend, but now his outburst against RyJae has me wondering again. (FWIW, I think it would have been a lot more suspicious if RyJae had waited until the last minute to roleclaim) And of course, by lynching him we would gain a lot of information about the motivation of voters Yesterday! 
I also continue to be suspicious of Blaster Master for his overenthusiastic advocacy of my lynch on Day One, and his reactions when I confronted him on it Yesterday. His actions on Day Two seem uncharacteristically indecisive, and could be construed as him distancing himself from the Unkempt bandwagon which he had earlier helped to start. However, I obviously won’t be voting for him until the
Detective situation is cleared up.
And dotchan really needs to start posting or request a replacement!! I know she offered an explanation, but we need to start seeing something other than reasons from not posting from her.
Ok you did this once before and it confused the heck out of me. What is the point. Lists without analysis are just that - lists.
Not being mean 'cause I am sure that you are making a point. It’s just lost on the old obtuse peeker.
Once TUO turned up Town, I knew someone would bring this up. You’re correct that I’m the only one to have unfortunately voted for both lynched Townies (other than yourself, and self-preservation is a nulltell). But, if anything, this should be a point in my favor. You say that I haven’t “really had too much to say” which I interpret to mean that you’re suggesting that if scum I was trying to fly under the radar. If that was the case, why would I intentionally end up with the blood of two Townies on my hands? The two primary tools used in hunting scum are post analysis and vote analysis. Why would I minimize the usefulness of one while painting a bullseye around myself with the other?
Does anyone have a link to JSexton’s formula? I’m curious as to how the appearance of a vigilante plays with the numbers.
[Oog]Oh and I should have done this yesterday. Since this is Memorial day weekend in the States I just gotta say thanks to all those that have served. Right or wrong those fine men and women have gone into harms way trying to do their best.
My two cents. I guess I am getting close to folding money.[/oog]
Couple of other thoughts coming up on the flip side. I’ve got a hike scheduled to Panther Cave and I believe that will clear the air.
There’s a fallacy here that needs to be pointed out. Scum do not always play optimally.
In any case I don’t know how much time we need to devote to you at this point. Really what needs to happen now is discussion of Ryjae - either Ryjae is the Detective, or he is scum. This is really a much more critical matter than if you are scum or not, as well as, of course, giving us our answer regarding you. Based on the presumption of 4 scum players, we pretty much need a good lynch right now and I don’t think we need to make life easier for the scum team by taking care of our own Detective. Let them use a night kill.
Let me put it this way - does anyone see a reason why the Detective shouldn’t out themselves at this point, if it’s not Ryjae?
Rysto was kind enough to direct me to this in the Cecilvania forbidden thread. There’s a link there to the thread it came from on the other board.
Sorry I’m all copy and paste today, guys. I’ll try to get some analysis done asap, but I’m gonna go hang out with the parents for a bit first.
Vote Count
**cckerberos - 2 ** (RyJae, fluiddruid)
**RyJae - 2 ** (Oredigger77, cckerberos)
Not Voting
peekercpa, bufftabby, , Dotchan, Hoopy Frood, Blaster Master, Thing Fish
Well, I guess I need to explain my ignoring RyJae’s post yesterday. The truth is I didn’t see it I’m posting from my phone and didn’t refresh after the night results and was just posting my thoughts from the night.
Now to talk about day 3’s action. I think we need the real detective to reveal themselves. But barring that happening I’m not sure how handle today. If we lynch cc and Ry gets night killed then we’re out of leads. On the other hand if we hunt for scum that is not cc we have the option of lynching cc tomorrow if ry gets night killed. The problem with this though is if the scum see our lack of belief of ry and decide to not night kill him. Then we wasted our opportunity to check ry out and lost a townie for nothing. I think we need to gamble and not lynch cc and try to find other scum. It gives us a chance to lynch scum two days in a row and that is something we need. So I’m going to vote for my number 2 as a strategy move.
vote peekercpa
Yay, I have internet access again. (Spent the weekend in the middle of nowhere, more or less.)
With 10 alive toDay, how many does it take to lynch?
I ask this because we may be in lynch-right-or-lose already. As someone else pointed out, lynching Town toDay will result in toMorrow dawning as 4 - 4, and depending on how many it takes to lynch that might mean we can’t afford to screw up.
Ryjae’s suggestion that we lynch him toDay is very careless, because there may not be a toMorrow if he is Town. I don’t know whether this makes him scum or not, but his attitude is at least a bit suspicious.