One more thing…
“the real detective”, Thing Fish and Oredigger77? :dubious:
Paranoid “do you know something I don’t” FoS Thing Fish, Oredigger77
It takes a plurality. The player with the most votes at the deadline (Thursday, 5PM MDST) gets the noose. A tie vote is decided by coin flip. A plurality of “Vote No Lynch” will result in no player being lynched.
Well, okay, so that’s good to know. We do have a little bit more wriggle room, then.
Assuming all claims/investigation results are true, there are 7 unknowns, somewhere around 3 of which are scum. Therefore from the point of view of a Townsperson, each of the 6 other unknown has, assuming a total of 4 scum, a 50% chance of being scum.
…grah, that’s a lot of assumptions to be playing with.
At least the Ryjae/cckerberos situation is a little simpler:
- Ryjae is lying Scum/cckberos is Town
- Ryjae is lying Scum/cckberos is Scum
- Ryjae is truthtelling Town/cckberos is Scum
- Ryjae is lying Town/cckberos is Town
- Ryjae is lying Town/cckberos is Scum
Unfortunately, lynching either one of them will not necessarily guarantee the other’s alignment, but I will still happily vote cckberos toDay, with the caveat that I will just as happily lynch ryjae tomorrow if cckberos turns up Town.
I just think it is a public service to make this data handy so that people can easily look at it and refer back to it as the game goes on. It takes a bit of effort to compile, though, so if nobody thinks it is useful I don’t need to keep it up.
Well, yeah, I guess if a scum actively participated in the discussion, without ever trying to say anything which might lead Town the wrong way and later come back to haunt him, and also never voted for any Townies, that scum would be unlikely to draw much attention. But he wouldn’t be doing much to help scum win, either, it seems to me. To be clear, I am not saying that this comes anywhere near PROVING that you are scum, it’s just one point in the discussion (and as fluid points out, the discussion we need to be having isn’t really about you, it’s about RyJae). But I think it would be a huge stretch to say that this is a point in your FAVOR!
Well, so much for my intention to express myself more clearly… should have said “in the event that RyJae himself is not the real detective”… guess I kind of assumed that would be inferred.
The hike took longer than I plsnned. Don"t have my charger with me. Got a game breaker, again, manana. Sorry red ligning on battery ability,
I think it’s a fairly viable strategy for scum to keep their head down, if not necessarily the best thing. With the night kill and the information they start the game with, I don’t think that scum need to worry as much about being proactive in helping their side win. From the games I’ve read Townies left to their own devices seem to do a pretty good job lynching each other, unfortunately.
Also, I don’t really think it was a point in my favor; I think it’s a nulltell. Since 70-80% of the town population is pro-Town, it’s not surprising that someone would accidentally go after Townies twice if they didn’t know better. I think if you came back after the game was over and looked at all the votes you’d probably find a lot of other people who voted for Townies twice; I was just unfortunate enough to have both of my targets succeed.
Ugh! Last night was bad. Very, very bad.
And as others have said, Ryjae assuming you’re the real detective, lynching you would be one of the worst things town could do. Because that allows scum to use a night kill on another townie, and as I mentioned in my post yesterDay when Dotchan asked if were at lynch-or-lose, a mislynch toDay brings us to a lynch-or-lose as well as a situation that if all scum vote for the same townie each day, even if town doesn’t mislynch after that point, the coin toss gives scum a 15/16 chance of winning the game. Essentially, lynching town toDay, gives the game to scum. So while we aren’t officially at lynch-or-lose, we might as just as well be. If we lynch scum toDay, that gives them only a 7/8 chance of winning the game should we mislynch toMorrow. If we lynch scum the next two Days, they have a 3/4 chance of winning the game employing the strategy of forcing a tie. So no matter what, lynching town from this point forward is bad. Very, very bad.
And this also gives us another problem. If you are lying scum, and cckerberos is town, by lynching him, we get to the scenario above. Also, if you are the real detective, you will no doubt be killed toNight, which will confirm you, BlaM, and cckerberos. And lynching cckerberos toMorrow becomes basically automatic. So the best strategy might be to look at someone other than you three. I’m not sure; I’ll have to think on that a bit more.
CoG888. Am we allowed to quote our PMs?
peeker, per CoG’s post #44 (rules), quoting is forbidden but paraphrasing is permitted. Hope your hike went better than this game is going.
cck, I agree (again) that innocently voting for Townies twice at this stage is by no means outside the realm of probablility, and that as more information comes in, we will likely find that others have done the same (for instance, since I know I’m Town, I also know that Oredigger voted for Townies on both days, although his Day Two vote could be at least partially explained by a self-preservation motive). I do tend to believe that players with the worst voting records should be among the first to be suspected, but at this point it’s just not much to go on. Your big problem isn’t that you have voted for Townies twice, but that a player who claims, thus far without any rebuttal, to be the Detective says that you are scum! It is based on this that I will now go on the record:
vote cckerboros
Seems to me like we are in a position where we need to be really sure we are lynching scum tonight, which means (barring another Detective claim) that we should probably take out cck, which will give us essentially two full Days to identify our next target. However, if someone else really gives off some serious scumtell today, that could change. Conversely, if RyJae is lying scum and cckerboros is town, I think we probably need our (hypothetical!) real Detective to step forward before dusk. I hope that after the holiday people will start posting again and we can come to a consensus on this point.
I agree that RyJae’s “please lynch me now” strategy is very poorly thought through, pretty much for the reasons Hoopy said above and others have already stated. I can’t really think of any plausible scum motivation, though, so I’m chalking it up to the same frustration that made Unkempt not roleclaim or switch his vote to help himself. I would certainly like to see some mistakes like that from scum!!
It’s the second time he’s suggested a self-destructive strategy… in Day 2 he asked that the Doctor not protect him after he roleclaimed. It’s not that likely (although the appearance of the 1-shot Vig means that we can’t rule out the appearance of other non-basic roles) but it’s possible that he’s a Jester trying to get himself lynched.
Never mind. He roleclaimed to prevent himself from getting lynched so he’s obviously not a Joker.
Still grasping for straws scum? I investigated you, you came back as scum end of my story on you.
Now onto other possible lynch candidates today, I’m all for an Oredigger lynch even without investigating him I find him more scummy than someone I am positive is scum.
This will be my last day certainly, so while you all consider my lynch request anti-town it was only because I know my death can take out two scum (one confirmed by me and the other pretty damned by his posts) I won’t have another chance to investigate anyone anyway so that’s why I didn’t care about a me lynch.
Any other question feel free I should be around a bit more starting tomorrow.
Can’t wait any longer. The weekend has done wore me out. First we can either be at
6 - 4 or 7 - 3, with a godfather. So my further information must be taken with that in mind. But with a discretionary vig I gotta believe that it is 6 - 4 or the math makes not a lot of sense.
I am the detective. I don’t know what RyJay is but he is not the detective unless there are two of us in this game and that would totally change the aboce calculations/conclusions that I believe to be accurate.
I thought that my “breadcrumbs” would have had me killed by now. Crap, Sherlock on day one, Batman on night one and Agatha Christie late last day. I can’t be more obtuse than that. Of course my wife didn’t see it so maybe way to subtle.
First night investigation: Blam - town
Second night investigation: fluiddruid - town
Fucked up picks, I know. But both of those vets scare the fool out of me. Now I am glad that they are in my corner.
Now, for the caveat, if it is 7 - 3 and there is a godfather, lord help us.
I know that I will not make
It through the night coming up. But I at least gave you a scum,RyJay and two confirmeds, Blam and [fluid** as well as my poor slinny ass. And I think looking at RyJay is going to give us one more.
Well, NOW it’s getting interesting!!!
Peeker, could you provide links or post numbers to these breadcrumbs?
Initially I am pretty impressed with RyJae’s snuggle of BlaM in the very first post of Day Two (406); if it is not an authentic Detective breadcrumb it was a pretty damn clever and foresightful way of leaving himself an out if the pressure got too high later in the Day (which, granted, wasn’t exactly a far-fetched possibility). So I would like to examine yours for comparison purposes.
Great! I was wondering when the real detective would step up to save my ass!
It took me a while to find the Agatha Christie one (I’m not a fan), but I think these were peekercpa’s breadcrumbs:
from #117 - “Now the game is truly afoot. Quickly Watson.”
from #390 - “Hurry Robin, to the BatCave. There is agave afoot.”
from #566 - “if those Gastards target correctly during the evening we are down to a ten little Indians kind of situation.”
I don"t have the quote thingy figured out but will at least post numbers in the morning.
I OMGUS anyrose with sherlock.
I give an agave reference to Robin.
Lastly “ten little Indians”. Agatha Christie FCS.
LetKs take of these scum right now.
Vote RyJay
I don’t know what he his lying about this game but if he claims miller, no way.
Interesting, why would scum claim detective unless cckerberos is of some use to them alive. Odd but interesting.
My vote stays where it is but a vote for the scum detective while still hitting scum may not be as important piece of scum.
Well rehearsed BTW scum, but I do think we have enough experience left in our town to see through your sham. I hope so for our sake anyway.