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681

And I just hope that the more experienced players will see through your B.S. You have done a couple of things that are totally anti town. Your vote shift late on day one totally screws the pooch. Your suggestion that we lynch you today makes no flippin’ sense. I am not experienced enough in these games to know what you might be. I just know that you aren’t the detec unless there are two of us, in which case, Og knows what the set up is.

And if there is some truly un standard set up then CoG888 will go down as the gastard Mod of all times.

682

[Oog]And I do also want to post this for the record. We had a couple of players leave this game early because of the “intensity” that this game can become. This is getting fun, for me, but I still wonder for the non hardcores is there a way to tone it down just a notch[/oog]

And if we could just lynch RyJay or one of his scum buddies I’d feel tremendous relief before I ride the night lightning.

683

And I must be getting cranky in my old age. Four day weekend followed by a red eye the East Coast will do it.

My claim has nothing to do about “your ass”. If I didn’t know what I know then you would be getting the ol’ read through about now.

684

And that I’ve got a bit of a delay that’s exactly what I will be doing. I know that RyJay is not what he says he is. But that does not make you not what he says you are.

685

Fine. All I really care about at this point is preventing myself from getting lynched. Not because of self-preservation (though I’m not going to pretend that that’s not something I care about) but because we can’t afford to lynch a Town player this turn and end up 6 down.

BTW, it’s RyJae, not RyJay

686

It’s too late for this game, I think, but perhaps someone could mod a game of speed mafia for newbies in the future? Like 9 people, 48 hour Days an 24 hour Nights?

687

I missed this before. Why was he your number 2 choice? You haven’t voted for him in the past and I don’t remember you expressing any suspicion about him previously. What’s your rationale?

688

Still sitting at the gate - GD.

It’s a POMGUS vote as near as I can tell. The P is for psuedo in honor of Blam’s PRH hypothesis. He was pissed since my vote yesterday was initiated by his “lurking” initially. Then when he started posting and I didn’t switch my vote to Dot he got all worked up about it. 'Course the fact that others were voting for him for other reasons doesn’t seem to matter in his mind.

689

Wow you two should get a room. :slight_smile:

690

Well, I think we can safely assume that BlaM is town (or godfather), since both our claimed detectives have gotten the same reading. I highly doubt we have two detectives because not only is that unlikely for a game with only 14 people to begin with, but it would mean scum would have to have a good amount of powers to balance this, and I think based upon what we’ve seen so far, this seems unlikely. So one of you is lying.

I can’t really see you both lying, because for two scum to claim detective when there’s a real detective still out there just seems bizarre and bad strategy. I mean it outs two scum, and does little to find the real detective. It might be useful in that town lynching one of the detectives would seem to confirm the other in town’s mind, but if the real detective were to come out, we still are really only lynching one townie at most in exchange for every fake claimed scum detective as long as we only lynch the detectives. However, any town lynch puts us in a bad situation due to the premise I gave above.

But if you both are scum, I think at this point the real detective should stay hidden, because regardless of who the real detective is, we’re probably going to end up lynching one of you by the end of the Day. Unless the real detective has crucial information to give, by staying hidden it forces scum to search for the real detective.

However, I’m guessing one of you is the real detective, and one of you is scum. If Ryjae is real, it means that peekercpa came out to try to both save cckerberos and to get a Ryjae lynch. Because should we lynch town detective Ryjae, all the scum will still be alive. Continuing with the worse-case scenario of four scum, we get the 15/16 thing I mentioned above. At that point, scum really don’t even need to stay hidden. They win by forming a unified voting block, unless town has another vig or a vote charger (i.e. townie who counts as two votes for lynching purposes), neither of which is likely. So, really, it doesn’t matter that both peekercpa and cckerberos are both exposed scum at that point, and it’s also why peekercpa would come out and risk such a thing. (With only 3 scum, it would be a dangerous gambit for scum to play since town can still out vote them at this point.)

Now if it turns out peekercpa is really the detective, Ryjae’s claim was made to save himself from lynch yesterDay. Nothing is known about cckerberos because there would be good reasons for a scum posing as detective to finger a townie or a scum as scum. One gets an innocent lynched, the other will buy credibility for whoever of the two scum doesn’t get lynched.

Regardless, assuming one of you is the town detective, you’re probably not going to make it to toMorrow. If town doesn’t lynch you, scum will night kill you. If we lynch scum toDay, we don’t get into dire straits toMorrow. However, if we lynch town toDay, we probably give the game to scum. I’m inclined to believe Ryjae over peekercpa at this point, but I’m far from certain about it.

(And I think Ryjae’s “lynch me please”, if he’s a townie, can easily be explained away as “frustrated with himself” townie. On the flipside, I can’t see a scum strategy at this point for a phony detective to want to be lynched other than to appear to be a “frustrated with himself” townie. Ryjae suggested a bad strategy, but bad strategy itself is a null-tell.)

691

And now that I am at the oasis known as IAH - Motto: “Our gate agents are not only surly but also decidedly unhelpful”.

You are welcome to join us but unless bufftabby or fluiddruid are willing then there is just gonna be a whole lot of CSPAN going on. :slight_smile:

692

Vote Count
**cckerberos - 4 ** (RyJae, fluiddruid, Dotchan, Thing Fish)
**RyJae - 2 ** (cckerberos, peekercpa)
**peekercpa - 1 ** (Oredigger77)

Not Voting
bufftabby, Hoopy Frood, Blaster Master,

693

Okay guys, I’m catching up. I did notice that we have a second detective claim, so I’m going to catch up before I comment on which one I find more believable and what I think we should do about it.

694

Ding ding ding! We have a winner! This is an example of Perfect Information Syndrome. Look at the part of the quote I bolded. At this point, I’m less likely to believe Ryjae than I am peekercpa’s claim, and this would coincide with that. He was already suspicious from Yesterday as well, so I’m going to provisionally put my vote here.

Either way, this looks like a scum attempt to railroad a townie. This leads me to believe that cckerberos is, in fact, pro-town and that Ryjae and Oredigger are in cahoots, and that we’re in a lylo situation, so it’s currently 6-4

Vote Oredigger77

Note: Masons, if you’re out there and you have not claimed already (since I’m not caught up), I think it is to our advantage that you claim now. I will post a reasoned argument as to why when I catch up.

695

I have to say breadcrumbing that you’re the detective is kind of pointless. It means either your a detective who wants to use them later to try to self-confirm or you’re scum who was planning to use them to assist in a claim later. Bottom line, I see them as a null tell.

Do you have any instances where you breadcrumbed your reading on me or fluiddruid?

696

Hey I’m all for a Oredigger lynch I’m fairly confident he is scum, I know without a doubt cckerberos is scum and with the false claim peekercpa is as well. So that’s three scum easy as pie if you go ahead and lynch me today.

So while it seems anti-town it is actually pro-town to lynch me, you get me confirmed which leaves it Oredigger cckerberos peekercpa and well up to you to figure out. Since peeker is lying about his role he either put two townies on his “list” or one town/one scum or even two scum though doubtful.

When I am confirmed as the detective the three of them should be the next ones dead then focus on perhaps fluid or BlaM I only mention BlaM because I did get a town read on him but if he is the Godfather it would make sense for the faker to add him as well. But that’s only after you confirm me.

697

Of course not, because he isn’t the detective er well the Doperville Detective anyway.

698

Okay, with regard to a mason claim. If we’re in a lylo situation, you should claim because it will give us more confirmed townies which will help to lessen our chance for mistakes. Once we hit lylo, we pretty much have to whip everything out. If it’s actually 7-3 (which I think is a bit unlikely), it’d still be helpful, as there’s no other power roles left to hide, so the scum will start killing confirmed townies now.

As for Ryjae vs. peekercpa, I can’t imagine that there’s more than one detective, so I’m quite certain one of them is lying. However, I don’t think it’s necessary to test the claim. The scum would be absolute fools to leave the the real detective alive for another Day, because he’ll get confirmed one way or another and that leaves him a chance to get us another investigation. Thus, I highly suspect the scum will be forced to kill the real detective and essentially hand us the liar Tomorrow.

Considering this, I suggest we provisionally accept me and fluiddruid as semi-confirmed and remove us from lynch contention. I would also provisionally leave cckerberos as either semi-confirmed town if Ryjae is scum or confirmed scum if Ryjae is town.

IOW, there’s at least 2 scum, and likely 3 amongst the other five (Thing Fish, Hoopy Frood, Ore Digger, Dotchan, and bufftabby). If any of them are masons, we greatly improve our lynching chances Today.

699

Wow. Interesting developments.

unvote cckerberos

I’m having a busy day at work so I’d like to post more soon, but wanted to get down on paper on a few points.

First of all, I think that we should definitely lynch one of the two Detective prospects. Why? Well, only one of them is right, the other is scum. Further, the real Detective will be night killed (barring a surprising additional protective role) so it’s not a huge risk to us at this point. Second I think that the Town needs to sort out some confirmeds.

Of the two Detective possibilities I think we should trust peekercpa, for several reasons:

1 - Ryjae only claimed under stress of lynch. Peekercpa came out under repeated requests today. Which has better town motivation?

2 - Knowing that he has a short life span on a short lynch, the best strategy for a scum-claiming-Detective is to hope to control the next lynch. Confirming town wouldn’t, only pinpointing scum would. As such I would have expected Ryjae to point at a possible scum target that is actually a townie (couldn’t hurt, might help). That’s exactly what happened.

3 - While I know this isn’t helpful, I know I’m Town; I’m sure Blaster Master is Town. This means to me that peekercpa isn’t lying, which while it doesn’t guarantee he’s the real Detective, gives me no reason to suspect him.

Blaster Master, if you’d rather leave the two candidates alone - who would you prefer to vote for?

vote Ryjae

700

I completely agree with your assessment and think that Ryjae is more likely to be scum than peekercpa and that cckerberos is likely pro-town because of that. So, if we do decide to choose between the two, Ryjae is where my vote would go at this point. That said, I’m inclined to believe the scum will do the dirty work for us Tonight because the risk of letting the detective get another investigation probably doesn’t outweigh the potential gain from a little more confusion.

I’m provisionally willing to accept you as investigated as pro-town. I also think it makes sense that no matter who is detective, I’m either pro-town or Godfather, so I make a bad lynch candidate. So, all together, I think it’s likely that Ryjae is scum and that peekercpa, cckerberos, you, and me are all probable town. If Ryjae is the real detective, that means I’m still probable town, you’re an unknown, and both cckerberos and peekercpa are scum.

If we go with what I’m inclined to believe is the more likely scenario, that means that there’s probably 3 scum amonst the remaining five. Since I suspect the scum will likely solve our detective dilemma for us, I’d rather poke in the other 5 where our chances are 60% if we pick at random. I also suspect that there’s probably at least a 2-man masonry out there which means, unless you and cckerberos are masons, which is quite unlikely in my estimation then there’s probably at least one mason amonst those five.

As such, I’ve already placed my vote on Oredigger. I think bufftabby made some lucid points toward him yesterday with which I agreed. I also think his apparent PIS is telling. His initial suspicion and subsequent write-off of Ryjae seems disingenuous.

That said, my suspects for the scum at this point are Ryjae, Oredigger, Hoopy Frood, and Thing Fish. I believe bufftabby is probably town based on my reads, and I think there’s evidence at least partially supporting the towniness of everyone else except for dotchan, who is undecided for me at this point from her general lack of posts.