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[Thing_Fish]

Alternate Realities:

If RyJae is the truth:

Town: RyJae, fluid
Scum: cckerboros, peeker
Unknown (2/4 scum): Me, dotchan, bufftabby, Hoopy

Peeker’s World:

Town: peeker, fluid, me
Scum: RyJae
Unknown (3/4 scum): dotchan, bufftabby, Hoopy, cckerboros
(and if RyJae is scum, it seems likely though not certain that cckerboros is Town)

So, it strikes me that no matter who is right, by throwing a dart at dotchan, bufftabby, and Hoopy, I have an excellent chance of hitting scum (even if RyJae is right, since I know I’m not scum, the odds are 2/3 from my POV).

Although I’m still leaning towards peeker being the real detective, I’m less sure of that than I am that at least 2 of the above 3 are scum, so it seems like my best bet is to try for another unknown and put the detective-killing ball back in the scum’s court Tonight. After all, if we are somehow going to pull this off, we will need to catch scum without Detective’s assistance at some point, so we might as well start now; if we succeed, we’ll either know who our Detective is tomorrow or, with one more investigation, we could be in a position where guessing right will identify all the scum for us.

However, I wonder if our best strategy at this point might just be for everyone to vote the same as** fluiddruid**, since we know that she’s Town (“know” used in the sense of “we really, really hope she’s Town, since even thinking about the possibility that she might be the Godfather is just way too depressing”). If we try to debate about the unknowns on our own, it could be that we end up split between two candidates, and with scum controlling half the votes, it’s going to be way too easy for us to get manipulated. If we all stick with fluid (and she picks right), we can get to 3-3 without having to win a coin flip – either that, or the vote will end up with fluid +3 on one side and 4 on the other, and then we’ll know for sure what’s what. Of course, this doesn’t mean that the rest of us get the Day off, we still need to keep posting and offering analysis and advice for fluid.

In retrospect, Oredigger’s lynch was way too easy to be right…with 7 of 9 votes other than his own on him, and the other 2 being RyJae and cck, who certainly appear to be on opposite sides, it should have been obvious that there were lots of scum on that wagon. Let this be a lesson to us…

Of our 3 unknowns, I would put my vote on** dotchan** for being lurky. However, Hoopy, although he has posted more, hasn’t really said a whole lot to draw attention to himself. Buffy’s early and eager advocacy of the OD77 lynch is not looking so good today, either.

However, until someone convinces me otherwise, I will refrain from casting a vote for now and await the command of our fearless leader fluiddruid.

[dotchan]

Copy-pasting from Thing Fish’s post…

Peeker’s World:

Town: peeker, fluid, Thing Fish
Scum: RyJae
Unknown (3/4 scum): dotchan, bufftabby, Hoopy, cckerboros
(and if RyJae is scum, it seems likely though not certain that cckerboros is Town)

Since I know I am Town, it seems that Peeker’s results generates an apparent contradiction in numbers.

FoS Peeker, and by extension FoS cckerboros, the beneficiary of peeker’s claim yesterDay.

[Hoopy_Frood]

@dotchan

Since I know I am Town, it seems that Peeker’s results generates an apparent contradiction in numbers.

Only if you make 2 additional assumptions (i.e. the first assumption being that you are town):

1. There are four scum (likely in this game based on JSexton’s formula)

2. A scum detective wouldn’t bus a fellow scum. (It’s happened before, so why do you feel this assumption is safe?)

[peekercpa]

Cripes this a loquacious lot for a Monday. I am going to get caught up and post as I do my read through, so if I overlap apologies are submitted in advance.

[peekercpa]

@RyJae

Fluid was never semi confirmed, “confirmed” by a scum does not equal semi confirmed!

Absolutely. I could very well have been fooled by a false godfather reading if we are 7 - 3. And being confirmed by you leads no credence, whatsoever, either.

Why in the world, as a town, bother with her? If I am scum then you would know that my read was the best it was going to get. She’s godfather or town or I suppose I lied. Your supposed investigation would not add any additional information other than just making it a two person debate today. You would have basically wasted a night. Sounds kind of anti - town.

[RyJae]

@peekercpa

Absolutely. I could very well have been fooled by a false godfather reading if we are 7 - 3. And being confirmed by you leads no credence, whatsoever, either.

Why in the world, as a town, bother with her? If I am scum then you would know that my read was the best it was going to get. She’s godfather or town or I suppose I lied. Your supposed investigation would not add any additional information other than just making it a two person debate today. You would have basically wasted a night. Sounds kind of anti - town.

Actually I figured she was scum hiding in your lil’ lie rather well. I was wrong. Peekercpa you and cckerberos played so openly scummy, I am actually shocked you lived this long. I don’t know whether to congratulate you or rip the blinders off the townies and beat them with them.

[peekercpa]

@RyJae

I realize my last post was snarky, as it was intended to be. If town cannot eat a fish when it bites the hook, jumps into the net and fries itself and serves itself with a lemon wedge, then town doesn’t deserve to win.

And for us grizzled vets (two games) I don’t think it was out of line except in the context that this was supposed to be “newbie” friendly. And was the “fish” thing supposed to be some sort of code? LOL

It’s still a game as you mention, and I’ll still love you in the morning - You Betcha.

Peek

[peekercpa]

@RyJae

Struck me as odd that you took him out, but then I thought about it and I realized you had no reason to keep him around any longer. Once Oredigger was revealed as town BlaM would have looked a little deeper at me and peekercpa, as I wanted done yesterday. You didn’t want that. Pity BlaM though, normally pretty intuitive let scum shit stand in the way of the facts.

I think that’s why you and your buddies took him out.

[peekercpa]

@Thing Fish

Alternate Realities:

If RyJae is the truth:

Town: RyJae, fluid
Scum: cckerboros, peeker
Unknown (2/4 scum): Me, dotchan, bufftabby, Hoopy

Peeker’s World:

Town: peeker, fluid, me
Scum: RyJae
Unknown (3/4 scum): dotchan, bufftabby, Hoopy, cckerboros
(and if RyJae is scum, it seems likely though not certain that cckerboros is Town)

So, it strikes me that no matter who is right, by throwing a dart at dotchan, bufftabby, and Hoopy, I have an excellent chance of hitting scum (even if RyJae is right, since I know I’m not scum, the odds are 2/3 from my POV).

Although I’m still leaning towards peeker being the real detective, I’m less sure of that than I am that at least 2 of the above 3 are scum, so it seems like my best bet is to try for another unknown and put the detective-killing ball back in the scum’s court Tonight. After all, if we are somehow going to pull this off, we will need to catch scum without Detective’s assistance at some point, so we might as well start now; if we succeed, we’ll either know who our Detective is tomorrow or, with one more investigation, we could be in a position where guessing right will identify all the scum for us.

However, I wonder if our best strategy at this point might just be for everyone to vote the same as** fluiddruid**, since we know that she’s Town (“know” used in the sense of “we really, really hope she’s Town, since even thinking about the possibility that she might be the Godfather is just way too depressing”). If we try to debate about the unknowns on our own, it could be that we end up split between two candidates, and with scum controlling half the votes, it’s going to be way too easy for us to get manipulated. If we all stick with fluid (and she picks right), we can get to 3-3 without having to win a coin flip – either that, or the vote will end up with fluid +3 on one side and 4 on the other, and then we’ll know for sure what’s what. Of course, this doesn’t mean that the rest of us get the Day off, we still need to keep posting and offering analysis and advice for fluid.

In retrospect, Oredigger’s lynch was way too easy to be right…with 7 of 9 votes other than his own on him, and the other 2 being RyJae and cck, who certainly appear to be on opposite sides, it should have been obvious that there were lots of scum on that wagon. Let this be a lesson to us…

Of our 3 unknowns, I would put my vote on** dotchan** for being lurky. However, Hoopy, although he has posted more, hasn’t really said a whole lot to draw attention to himself. Buffy’s early and eager advocacy of the OD77 lynch is not looking so good today, either.

However, until someone convinces me otherwise, I will refrain from casting a vote for now and await the command of our fearless leader fluiddruid.

Some excellent points. I just don’t see any way that TF is the godfather. Sorry, my friend, but day one just does not feel like a “newb” godfather stretching his wings. Therefore, I put him into my totally confirmed townie pool. I also think that FD falls into this close category. Both detecs have confirmed her alignment (I think) and her game play seems to be consistent with my conclusions. If she ends up the godfather then we are basically screwed.

I think we have to get a scum today or lose with a flippin’ shut out. Since I know that I am the real detective I’ve got to leave my vote where it is.

If someone else comes up with a compelling reason to change, then I will certainly consider it.

[peekercpa]

@RyJae

Actually I figured she was scum hiding in your lil’ lie rather well. I was wrong. Peekercpa you and cckerberos played so openly scummy, I am actually shocked you lived this long. I don’t know whether to congratulate you or rip the blinders off the townies and beat them with them.

And this whole thing about me and cckerberos feels a tad contrived. Can you please point me to where we were so “openly” playing scum. FCS, he was my second choice behind OD because of your “read”. Jesus on a candle. Can we just get rid of one flipping scum before the day ends.

[Oog]Since, we have only vets or seasoned players left can I suggest a no hold’s bar rumble if need be[/oog].

And if RyJae doesn’t want to then I will defer.

We can still be friends in the morning and sign a divorce decree a couple of years down the road. LOL.

[peekercpa]

@RyJae

Sure you would know who was lying if you just read the exchanges between cckereberos and peekercpa. It’s like a the elephant in the room you all choose to ignore.

On re read. I don’t see anything of the sorts at all. You are going to have to help me. I see you doing a whole bunch of crud that seems to be playing into scum hands. Your vote switch on day one, your proposed vote for yourself on day two. And now a fluiddruid investigation. I know that you are not town and just hope that my remaining townies will look at the above and finally decide to lynch a scum with me.

[dotchan]

@Hoopy Frood

2. A scum detective wouldn’t bus a fellow scum. (It’s happened before, so why do you feel this assumption is safe?)

Yeah, but in our case we’re behind by so much that I am more willing to buy a scum detective giving out false guilties and false innocents. (Would giving up one of their own and putting them back two Days in terms of a win condition be worth the gambit?)

[bufftabby]

@dotchan

Copy-pasting from Thing Fish’s post…

Peeker’s World:

Town: peeker, fluid, Thing Fish
Scum: RyJae
Unknown (3/4 scum): dotchan, bufftabby, Hoopy, cckerboros
(and if RyJae is scum, it seems likely though not certain that cckerboros is Town)

Since I know I am Town, it seems that Peeker’s results generates an apparent contradiction in numbers.

How? What that indicates to me is that if peeker is telling the truth, and there are 4 scum, and I know that I’m Town, that tells me that you, Hoopy, cckerberos, and ryjae are scum. I’m not sure that’s a contradiction at all. :dubious:

[Hoopy_Frood]

@dotchan

Yeah, but in our case we’re behind by so much that I am more willing to buy a scum detective giving out false guilties and false innocents. (Would giving up one of their own and putting them back two Days in terms of a win condition be worth the gambit?)

But as of the beginning of yesterDay, scum were still in the minority, so it wouldn’t be an unlikely gambit for Ryjae to bus a fellow scum for townie cred. After all, if peekercpa is scum, it was fairly risky for him to false claim detective yesterDay as well since it cleary puts him in the center ring of the circus. So both our claimants made risky plays for scum. I’m still not seeing either one’s case being more compelling than the other’s.

[RyJae]

@bufftabby

How? What that indicates to me is that if peeker is telling the truth, and there are 4 scum, and I know that I’m Town, that tells me that you, Hoopy, cckerberos, and ryjae are scum. I’m not sure that’s a contradiction at all. :dubious:

You think Hoopy, donchan, me and cckerberos are scum. Hoopy thinks you, donchan, me and cckerberos are scum, and donchan thinks what was was stated already. cckerberos doesn’t matter because I know he is scum.

That means bufftabby, donchan, hoopy if you can assume one of you are town and you’re town that peekercpa is lying.

[RyJae]

Hey peekercpa just for shits and giggles summarize your role PM.

[RyJae]

@peekercpa

And this whole thing about me and cckerberos feels a tad contrived. Can you please point me to where we were so “openly” playing scum. FCS, he was my second choice behind OD because of your “read”. Jesus on a candle. Can we just get rid of one flipping scum before the day ends.

[Oog]Since, we have only vets or seasoned players left can I suggest a no hold’s bar rumble if need be[/oog].

And if RyJae doesn’t want to then I will defer.

We can still be friends in the morning and sign a divorce decree a couple of years down the road. LOL.

LMAO he answered questions directed at you, ya know like he already knew everything, ya know like you discussed it. You can pull the wool over towns eyes apparently but don’t even start trying that with me.

***In this divorce I want custody of the scum kids you spawned so I can beat the tar outta them ***

[dotchan]

Combined with what I know of my own role, I would be happy to vote for either bufftabby or Hoopy Frood, because odds are good that one (or perhaps even both) are scum regardless of who is telling the truth. (The jury is still out on Thing Fish and cckeroberos, of course; I’m just temporarily eliminating them from consideration until the Detective situation resolves itself one way or another.)

Or, alternately, we might as well take a gamble and flip the coin on one of the claimed Detectives toDay.

[RyJae]

@dotchan

Or, alternately, we might as well take a gamble and flip the coin on one of the claimed Detectives toDay.

Wish we had done this while a mistake may have been costly, it wouldn’t have ended the game for us as it’s likely to do now. But then again, no one liked the idea when I said about it, and no one believed me when I said scum wouldn’t kill me because it would be worthless in the scheme of things. As they did an effective job of having the town work as scum.

[fluiddruid]

Howdy folks,

Real life is quite busy for me. I’ll try to post as I can but it is likely I will not be able to do so until early tomorrow.

I will say that my impulse is to lynch Ryjae to at least be able to use some of the detective confirmations, and I found him scummier. But, I’ll say more when I can review the thread. Sorry guys.

Alternately if anyone spectating wants to jump in, I’m happy to step back, I have not had as much time to play as I would have liked. PM me if that’s the case.