I agree 100% that that is the best pool to choose from, even though I am in it. Of course, I’m not going to vote for myself on that, so it really comes down to the other two. Thing Fish, I’ve been thinking you were Town from Day One, and I still think so. I’m going to follow your lead and
vote dotchan
Neither dot nor hoopy has struck me as especially scummy, but I must say I’ve been getting a pretty Townie vibe from Hoopy, which narrows my choice down pretty well.
This has been a painfully slow game. (And I know, I’m one of those guilty of not posting enough.)
Come on, everybody. As it has already pointed out, the choice is pretty much to either lynch one of the claimed Detectives, or one of the me/buff/Hoopy trio. (Of course I’d rather not be the one to be lynched, but that can probably be said of everybody here.)
Here’s the problem as I see it. The detective thing needs to be resolved in order for town to know what’s what. However, we have a 50% chance of losing should we hit the actual detective, and unfortunately, I don’t think scum will whack the real one for us at this point. On the other hand, we are pretty much guaranteed to have 3 or 4 scum total.
Now, fluid has been confirmed, one of the detectives is confirmed, and one of the detectives is scum.
If we remove these from the pool, we now have 2 or 3 scum remaining among 5 players. This means we have between a 40-60% chance to hit town should we lynch in that pool. If we had equal chance of 2 or 3 scum, this gives us effectively a 50% chance to lose again. I think it’s slightly more biased toward 3 scum given the numbers and the opening text for the Day, which would tilt it in town’s favor, but going for the Detectives will ultimately give us more information should we hit scum. So for now I’m going to:
vote Ryjae
<< crickets>>
<<crickets>>
<<murderous, bloodthirsty, conspiratorial crickets>>
Man, this game is making me paranoid.
Ah, my fluff simulposted with an actual contribution!
I think your reasoning makes a certain amount of sense, Hoopy. Although I have come down on the other side, I don’t see the relative advantage of voting Detective vs. unknown as too huge at this point. But it seems to me that if (assuming solely for the sake of argument that **RyJae ** is scum, the basic logic doesn’t change if you prefer lynching peeker) we lynch **RyJae ** today and he is scum, the scum presumably take out peeker tonight, and we are left with 2 confirmed (**me ** and fluid) and 4 unknowns, of whom 2 or 3 are scum. So we will still need to guess right, and probably win some coin flips, in order to win.
OTOH, if we successfully lynch an unknown scum today, and the scum choose to kill someone else (likely fluid)we will then have one more confirmed read from our real Detective tomorrow when we (hopefully) choose a Detective candidate to lynch and pick right.
Seems to me that the longer the scum decide to allow our Detective to remain alive, the greater the potential benefit to us when we finally do figure out which is the right one. We definitely aren’t going to win unless we can identify some scum without Detective help, so we might as well try to do that now in the hope of getting more confirmations for later.
23 hours to go…
Vote Count
**RyJae - 1 ** (peekercpa, HoopyFrood)
**Dotchan - 1 ** (Thing Fish, bufftabby)
**peekercpa - 1 ** (Dotchan)
Not Voting
cckerberos, RyJae, fluiddruid
Ok here we go:
Snipped to hell, paraphrased as well and, in the spirit of RyJae’s post, translated to make it clear as a bell.
peekercpa
By the powers. You be the detective.
Arr me hearty, each night you be ha’in’ the great grand opportunity to swing the lead and determine whether that town be landlubber or freebooter.
If you don’t provide a target because of grog in your black jack then a squiffy and scurvy dog you be.
You be victorious when the landlubbers have keelhauled all the freebooters e’en if you be in Davey Jones’ locker.
Be lettin’ me know.
Channelling Autocyclus
And I guess that’s the downside of getting two votes early on. At the end they don’t count.
Pondering which one of Thing Fish or bufftabby did something to irk our illustrious Mod.
I think it was intentional.
FoS CoG888
I demand a recount!
Can I go half and half on this?
I don’t think anyone should necessarily change or place their vote just because of what fluiddruid decides to do. A factor, yes, but the sole reason not so much.
And you are totally correct on not providing thoughts for future analysis. We have to play like we have a chance and I believe we do. So this shut down in posting (seems to me) as an anti town move for the scum to just kind of be coasting.
You know where my vote is and there it shall stay unless that uber compelling argument for an alternative comes up.
At least if we lynch our scummy detective then we have a chance. And if he goes then I bite it tonight. Unless… I know that my idea of an additional town role is primarily hinged on hope rather than mechanics. Best that I can do at this time, however.
[Oog]Redarding the level of posting: I have very little opportunity, currently, to post during “work” hours. My company has really started cracking down on personal Internet use during company time. Therefore, I am really limited to after hours and weekends. If this is a problem then I will certainly not participate in any more of these games.[/oog]
At least until I punch through the firewall. 
I swear, I’m not drunk…
Vote Count
**RyJae - 2 ** (peekercpa, HoopyFrood)
**Dotchan - 2 ** (Thing Fish, bufftabby)
**peekercpa - 1 ** (Dotchan)
Not Voting
cckerberos, RyJae, fluiddruid
Ah, but stoned counts for much the same thing.
It’s quiet in this town…too quiet…
I would like to suggest that all Townies for whom RL permits should try to be online around the deadline today in case of last-minute scum shenanigans.
Keep the faith…
I’ll try, even if I have to hang around in a stall for a while.
I’ll do my best, though that’s pretty early for me.
I’m going to vote RyJae, which I imagine doesn’t come as a shock to anyone.
Yes. Absolutely this is right. On the flip side I don’t think we should allow a tie. No ties, people. Vote now.
Unfortunately I have not been able to keep up with the game as many of you have. In some ways this is a good thing as I hope some of the newer folks have been forced to get their feet wet now that Blaster Master’s dead, but, I apologize as I know it’s creating a town disadvantage. I won’t bore you with the mundane details but it’s just not been possible for me lately.
That said, I’m still confirmed Town so I will very likely end up dead tonight. As such I think the only real strategy we have is to off a Detective possibility. Scum isn’t willing to do it for us so there we go. That way, even if they choose to off the Detective, we keep a confirmed Town; if they off confirmed Town, we keep a Detective.
As such the choice comes down to Ryjae vs peekercpa. I’ve made a small case against Ryjae in the past, and I haven’t seen anything to dissuade me. Further, I think it makes a lot of sense that he would ‘confirm’ me since, barring the detective being outed, I would almost certainly be a scum target tonight. This way he’s not giving out any real information. Also, I don’t really agree with the reasoning he gave. Investigating scum Detective confirmed town? On the surface it makes a kind of sense, but frankly it’s a pretty bold move, since 1) it’s generally bad to focus such attention on other scum, it’s easier for scum to hide if they’re not being discussed and 2) why not focus on some of the other players we have no read on at all? Again, as I’ve pointed out in prior posts, it seems to me that the reasoning fits best with scum motives than with town. Doesn’t make his town status not a possibility but it sure makes me learn the other way.
The PM is the only thing that makes me waver slightly. It looks possibly legit but I am fairly confident that the style of Mafia PMs would be similar enough as to not make a difference here.
In any case I’m going to go with my gut on this one. Either way we definitely need to know.
vote Ryjae
Now look at mine without redneckism and look at his, and now think long and hard. This is why I requested him to put his out there, I was confident in my fellow townies ability to read what they “read” in and think about there own PM’s and the opening color.
You’re making a mistake, a mistake that causes us to lose period. Once a town is dead town loses unless I’m missing something in the normal rules that scum usually only need a majority.
Now maybe town can understand why I wanted to die yesterday so we could clear up the scum issue, now it’s to late for a townie to die to prove a point.
You make a decent point. After a review of the thread I note that we must make the right decision tonight or we lose. Bollocks.
Ok, here we go:
Dissimilarities:
-
Ryjae’s post has “Doperville Mafia Role”, which is indeed the subject of my PM as well. Admittedly peekercpa could have not included the subject line. Slight advantage Ryjae.
-
The most damning evidence is the line. My role is just posted under my name without commentary. Peekercpa added “By the powers. You be the detective” whereas Ryjae just put “Deteckive/Cop”. Peekercpa’s line reflects other games’ role PMs more than this one. Advantage Ryjae.
-
Ryjae’s has more flavor text. My PM had flavor text. Advantage Ryjae.
-
My PM advised I cannot talk to other players outside the game period. Ryjae’s says you can’t at night, peekercpa’s has no information about this. Slight advantage Ryjae.
-
Ryjae’s mentions the power of a lynch vote. So does mine. Peekercpa’s doesn’t. Advantage Ryjae.
-
Ryjae’s mentions Cecil’s death. My PM mentions Cecil’s death. Advantage Ryjae.
-
Both explain win condition similarly.
-
Both request confirm.
You’re right. My analysis was poor.
unvote Ryjae
vote peekercpa
I would strongly recommend that we lynch peekercpa tonight based on this evidence. Townies, please vote.
I’ll also note that both people show that they can show alignment only, NOT role. This is pretty significant and it probably means we are against regular ol’ vanilla scum.
Thankfully I was able to get someone to read and I mean really read them. I tried for days to get peekercpa to post his because I know from past experience it’s harder than it looks to post a “fake” PM unless the mod gave them a cover. So score one for town. I will be away from being able to post until Friday after this post. But I can still read and I hope town looks over both my posts and Fluids and disregards the scums attempt at pulling this any other way.
** vote peekercpa**