Hi there,
based on this event:
… I’d be interested in a broad debate on how the rise of drones will impact future wars…
I am somewhat optimistic, as it tends to bring the war back to “specific targets” ves. carpet bombing whole cities …
what are your thoughts?
As the old saying goes, ‘for every charm there is a counter-charm.’ Drones were running free and wild for Ukraine in the early stages of the war. Then Russia adapted and electronic counter-measures began to drastically reduce drone effectiveness on the front lines.
I think drone warfare is a new reality of war that everyone is going to have to adapt to. But I suspect it is going to be less about replacing existing platforms with masses of cheap war drones and more about just one more complicated layer that is going to be added to the mix.
Closer to something like the mass adoption of mobile and man-portable anti-air systems. They didn’t eliminate air power, they just made life more complicated for it. So, speculatively, it may be with drones. Mobile air defense systems are now going to have to expand to deal with the drone threat in a more economical way. Walking forwards with anti-drone jammers, maybe backwards a bit towards formerly obsolescent systems similar to Gepards that can use cheap projectiles rather than expensive missiles to knock them out, quite likely in some cases a single chassis combo of the two. Such things are already being built and I expect that to accelerate with the experience of this war.
just to add:
in the beginning, the Bayraktar (sp?) drone was the rockstar of the war … haven’t heard a lot about those in the past year or so … i have the feeling they were ultimately too large (too plane-like) and became victims to AA weaponry.
so it really seems that those small drones became somewhat of a flying sniper weapon, hard to find, dirt cheap … and more of a nuisance/anti-morale weapon than something you could deploy by the 1000s to achieve some strategic advance …
but yeah … using a $500 drone to take out a 50 million airplane is a sexy thought
I can see drones as a real terrorist threat against civilian targets, whether sent by small nut groups or by national governments. Like by blowing up gas stations or other soft targets with a big payoff. They wouldn’t have to travel far. This might be expected more from domestic terrorists, as it will be easier to have people on the ground without importing them, and they can buy regular civilian drones and upgrade them with some of their stockpiled explosives. I’m kind of surprised something like this hasn’t happened already – or would it be harder than I think?
I’ve seen a picture of a Russian tank with a net or plastic covering over a frame work six feet or so over the tank. I wonder ow that works out.
Dunno, but the Ukrainians are doing it as well. Pictures have filtered out of Challenger 2 tanks fitted with “cope cages”. Effective? Who knows - but obviously somebody thinks it’s better than nothing.
I can see sending several drones at very short intervals, to blow a hole in cage.
Or drones fitted with tandem-charge warheads.