Like many Americans, I’m making plans to see the Great Eclipse. And also like many Americans, I didn’t make my plans as far in advance as I should have. Which means that we won’t be spending the night at my preferred location, which means we’ll be doing some driving on that day.
Now, obviously, traffic conditions will be bad. And I’m finding a lot of sites that are saying that they’ll be bad. But I’m not finding anyone saying just how bad it’ll be. What I really need is answers to questions like “If my overnight location is ordinarily six hours away from my viewing location, when will I need to leave to get there in time?”. I realize, of course, that there will be a lot of uncertainty in any estimates, but there should at least be something.
For one thing, we have data from 1979 to draw on. Some sites I’ve seen have dismissed the relevance of the 1979 eclipse, because it only passed over a small portion of the US. But that shouldn’t matter: It means a smaller viewing area, and a smaller area that people were coming from to reach that viewing area, and the two effects should roughly cancel out. It’ll probably be worse for this one, because the population of the US is greater and social media is increasing interest, but it’d at least provide a starting point for estimates. So how bad were roads before the 1979 eclipse? I can’t find that information anywhere.
But, for one data point: I was planning on going to Painted Hills state park in Oregon. I talked to the Parks people a few months ago, and they strongly discouraged me from going there - they said that a normal 1-hour drive might take 12 hours (!) and that people will be running out of gas and getting stranded. I opted for a less-ideal location, but with a greater chance of actually getting there.
The other issue is: food.
Many of the tiny towns on the path of totality will be inundated by more visitors than they have ever seen. It’s likely that restaurants and grocery stores will run out of food. I plan on taking my eclipse-day meals with me.
I don’t have any 1979 data, but I’m not sure it would even be applicable. We’re a far more mobile society, even compared to 1979, and with gas prices at near historical lows compared to that year I would expect much larger mobility, especially around easier to reach areas. A lot of municipalities over which the path of totality will fall also don’t have the budget or manpower to handle traffic congestion and inevitable accidents, and so purportedly plan on citing drivers for every feasible violation. (This is not just urban legand; I actually heard this from a police officer who, while not operating in the path of totality works in a city that is on a major thoroughfare.) I would plan on a much longer trip than an estimate from Google Maps or your GPS would suggest both going and coming, and don’t plan on being able to just pull off on the side of the road or in a parking lot and sleep for the night.
We do have a plan B: An uncle who lives a mere 25 miles from the edge of totality, at whose place we could sleep for a night or two before. It’s a longer total distance, but might well be less time on the road.
And we’re used to bringing road-trip food with us. We used to always do that when I was a kid, just for financial reasons. Money’s a little easier nowadays, but we haven’t forgotten how to do it.
Oregon Dep’t of Transportation has issued some statements concerning this …
They will be enforcing the rules about camping in the freeway medium … they want this kept open for emergency vehicles … I suspect this is wishful thinking … emergency response teams will be stationed along the freeway about every five miles, although they have warned that any accident will completely stop all traffic … with the shoulders and beyond full of people camping out it’s going to be near impossible to get the freeway cleared … they’re planning on an extra million people, or about 50% more traffic than even the worst experience …
More generally, the government is recommending everyone bring survival kits, three days food and water, normal services will be unavailable … basically the kind of kits needed during natural disasters; extra batteries, extra meds, extra clothes, extra blankets, well stocked first aid kits …
How bad it gets is pure speculation … we’ll be traveling the Friday before and have our location secured … we’re figuring folks will be rolling after work either Friday night or Saturday morning … Sunday is expected to be stop-and-go all day … Monday morning the freeway will be perhaps at a complete standstill a hundred miles either side of the path …
Bottom line is that traffic is going to be bad, very very bad … like calling out the National Guard bad …
for aspects of my planning. While some of the assumptions are certainly subject to debate, there are some interesting observations. A little back-of-the-envelope estimation based on your likely routes might provide actionable conclusions.
If you look at a map you can see why South Carolina will be swapped with visitors: its the closest place for anyone living in the Eastern seaboard–and those states have a population of 113 million.
I think this will be handled by the market. I was looking to cross Wyoming this week and get out before everything goes to hell (I would like to see it, but I saw the one in '79 from my own back yard, so partial it will be); looking at hotels, I was seeing some town in the center of the state where Super 8 was offering rooms on Sunday night for $900.
IOW, there will not be a shortage of food because a ham sandwich will cost $50 (another $15 if you want lettuce, mustard or cheese on it).
I’m in Portland, and the local media here is warning everybody to expect a clusterfuck of epic proportions. Expect hours of stand-still traffic on the highways leading into the path of totality. People residing in the area are concerned with their morning commutes, and are not confident that they will even be able to get to work or school for several days both preceding and following the eclipse. As already mentioned, bring all of your food and water with you. I’ll keep this thread updated with whatever is being predicted by the local news outlets.
All I can tell you is that I am going to Colorado tomorrow for unrelated reasons and I had to pay an extreme premium to get a rental car that I will return the day before the eclipse. The rental sites were showing demand over 400% above normal. I assume that there are a shit-ton of people flying into Denver and then driving into Wyoming to see the eclipse in its totality. I wish I had thought ahead and planned to stay to see it but it looks like a whole lot of other people also thought of that plan.
Still, the U.S. is huge and not that densely populated. I don’t think there are enough people to physically clog up a 3,000 mile route tens of miles wide. I am sure some popular spots will be a nightmare but there has to be places where you can see it in relative peace.
From Portland, you drive south on I-5 to get to U of Oregon and Oregon State football games. If one of them is playing, a 1.5 hour drive might be 2.5 hours. If both are playing, it could be 4 hours, particularly if there’s just one accident.
ODOT is saying the eclipse traffic will be 10 times worse than a double-game day. That sounds hyperbolic until you remember that football games might mean 30K extra cars, while I’ve seen estimates of 500K extra people on I-5 for the eclipse.
I’m sure that there are; it sounds like the issue is likely to be being able to get into and out of those places, especially once you get to major highways / interstates.
St. Clair, Mo. is right on I-44 and one of the points with the longest totality. Officials there are planning for 30,000 people to show up in a town of 4,500.
As a comparison, I’m thinking of a football stadium. Soldiers’ Field in Chicago is reachable only by Lake Shore Drive, Memorial Stadium at the University of Missouri and Kansas Stadium at the University of Kansas are accessed pretty much entirely by I-70 for out of towners. How long is the backup to park at a major stadium on game day? Two or three hours?
I live in suburban Chicago; the path of totality goes through the very southern end of Illinois, which is about 6 hours away by car (when traffic isn’t an issue).
In Oregon on the west side of the Cascades and south of the totality zone, the problem is that there are very few back roads. You can head up Highway 99, which splits into two roads (Highways 99 East and 99 West) at Junction City. There are many wineries along Highway 99 West. Those have all rented out space for eclipse watchers and it is going to be a mess. Highway 99 East is generally less traveled, but since it is the quickest “escape” route off I-5, I imagine it is going to be jammed as well. These are both roads with only one lane each direction.
Other than that, there are really no good north/south options. Highway 101 on the coast is going to be a nightmare since it is the only road in and out of the totality zone. The Forest Service is closing as many logging roads as they can due to fire danger, so those won’t be an option.
I’d say anyone who hasn’t arrived at their intended destination by Saturday night may be in for a rough few days.