The state of the economy is usually one of the biggest factors in whether an incumbent president gets reelected or not. Would you rather that there be a severe economic recession (like Great Recession or even Great Depression levels) and Trump be defeated, or an economic boom (say, 2x stronger than now) and Trump gets reelected?
Edit: Wanted to edit the poll question but can’t - anyway, this is about preference and what one would want, not what will actually happen.
If Trump gets re-elected, we will almost surely miss the window for dealing with global warming.
Call me single-issue, but booms and busts come and go; three recessions have happened during my adult life that were each, at the time, the worst recession since the Great Depression, yet here we are. But the effects of global warming will last for lifetimes.
Not a hard question for me to answer, but I’ll be interested in the responses from others.
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I think it is a poorly thought out question. If we had any other President than Trump during this economic expansion, he (or she) would have solid approval ratings. To be stuck at 41% during “the best economy ever” is an embarrassment.
If there’s a recession, Trump is gone for sure. But even if the good times persist, he has no better than a 50/50 chance of being reelected.
I always prefer a strong economy to a recession. Other than the content of news programs, whoever is in the White House actually has very, very little impact upon my personal life. It is the results that matter.
A recession would certainly cause a drop in the emission of GHGwhether Trump is re-elected or not. OTOH I am moderately sure that nothing significant is going to be done in the US about AGW no matter who is President, and that whatever does get done will be drowned out by what the Chinese and the Third World don’t do.
If we have an economic boom, at least we will have more money to mitigate the effects of AGW. Poor people suffer most from disasters of all sorts, not just global warming. If the coast lands flood, the ones who die are the ones who can’t move inland, and when hurricanes hit, countries with less resources suffer more than the developed world.
That doesn’t necessarily mean it would be a wash between stopping AGW and getting richer overall, but as Woody Allen said
Regards,
Shodan
Why would anyone want a recession?
Right–because most Americans are stupid, and they think that the president alone magically changes the economy immediately with a wave of the hand. They also don’t realize that the negative effects of bad economic policy usually take a long time to set in–often long after the president is gone.
Would buy us a little time, at least.
Can’t disagree, but damned if I’m giving up. We’re talking about the world my son’s going to live in.
China’s starting from a bad position, but they’re doing a lot. They’ve got the world’s largest and most utilized high-speed rail network. They’re pushing electric cars in a big way. We’re not doing the first at all (thanks, all you GOP governors, for vetoing HSR in your states a decade ago because it was soshulism), and in the near term, the success of electric cars rests on one genius who’s stretched way too thin.
Ultimately, the effects will be beyond mitigating.
Always good to see a conservative have concern for the poor. That concern is rarely backed by money, but still, the concern is a first step.
I think if it was a choice between another 4 years of Trump or great recession level losses, I think it would probably go for the recession, but it might be close. I think in terms of measurable negative effects the Recession of 2008 was probably worse than what is likely to happen with another 4 years of Trump. The problem is the effect of the Trump legacy. I doubt that RBG can last until 2024, so we are going to be looking at a strongly pro buisiness, anti-labor, anti-consumer court for a generation. Worse it will be demonstrated that the Trump method of campagining and governing (the truth doesn’t matter, neither does corruption, you are only the president for those who voted for you, all actions should be directed in a partisan manner, those Americans who voted against you are the enemy and should be punished) works without repercussions, and so will be become the norm.
If its the Great Depression level then I’ll just have to swallow Trump. That is an order of magnitude worse than anything that Trump is likely capable of.
I’ll vote for almost any scenario that ends “Trump is defeated.”
I’m curious about the “almost” there. What scenarios do you consider a bridge too far in order to defeat Trump?
Would 4 more years of Trump be more damaging than a recession? If so, yes. If not, no.
The first 2 years of Trump really weren’t that bad objectively. And now that we have divided government its even less bad. They failed to take health care protections away from millions, and with divided government its even less likely now. The damage to our reputation is already done so another 4 years won’t make the world think much less of us than they already do.
Unless Trump starts a war, or destroys medicare, or something like that I can’t forsee him being more damaging to the country than a major economic downturn. So 4 more years of Trump it is.
And if we have divided government and democrats control at least one house of congress, the damage Trump can do to the country and the world will be limited.
But realistically does the world need the US federal government to get on board to deal with AGW?
Over 75% of global GDP and fossil fuel usage occurs outside of the US. China invests twice the $ in clean energy that the US does. Europe is talking of increasing their spending on it.
Not only that, but the federal government is just one level of power. We also have state government, city government, corporations and private individuals who can still fight AGW. Many states and cities are committing to fight AGW with or without the federal government.
Its a good thing if anything. The American people are too dysfunctional to be trusted to lead on dealing with global problems. And luckily the world is big, diverse and powerful enough that the world can solve problems on their own while America is mired in dysfunction, white nationalism and a cold civil war.
The death of someone close to me.
Recessions suck, and a lot of people get hurt. On the other hand, the economy will rise and fall regardless. Trump’s presidency is a disaster of Biblical proportions and given the premise of the OP, a recession and being rid of Trump FAR outweighs a good economy and having Trump remain in office. Not even close.
Given that the only reasonable chance for significant reductions in greenhouse gases will be a rapid adoption of nuclear power, and Trump is more likely to embrace nuclear power than some left-wing green new dealer, I’d say that there’s a better chance for GHG reduction under Trump than, say, Elizabeth Warren or Bernie Sanders or Beto.
Yeah, I agree with this. I didn’t vote as there needs to be more choices. At this stage, I think Trump goes down, regardless, barring some sort of miracle. I’m not even sure how much the Republicans are going to try and help him save the sinking ship right now.
Of course, my powers of prediction suck. I didn’t think this dude would get elected in the first place, so a mountain of salt is required…
Economic book and 4 more years of Trump. Sorry, I have no desire to got through the Hell of another Great Recession. While I kept a job, it affected me on several deeply personal ways that I don’t want to go into. I’m about ready to change jobs again this year, so let’s hold off on any recessions, please.
You may not get your wish. There are troubling signs of an economic slowdown all around the globe. A recession in the next two or three years is likely, and even if there isn’t a formal recession, there will be enough economic bad news to give the Democrats ammunition going into the election.
The next recession could be a doozy. Go look up how much debt the world has taken on at all levels since central bankers held interest rates near zero. There will be a temptation to print our way out of debt at a time when the inevitable inflation from that will raise debt servicing costs to levels that will bankrupt governments.
Democrats could win the next election if there’s a sharp slowdown between now and then, but none of us should hope for a deep recession, as it could get very, very bad this time.