I don’t understand the qualifying process at all - last I heard, things had been looking pretty bleak but then they turned things around at the last minute with a much-needed win over some Central/South American team.
Are the USMNT already qualified? If not, what has to happen for them to qualify, when will that happen (or not happen), and what are their chances?
Right now, there are 12 teams left in the North & Central America & Caribbean region, divided into three groups of four; they’ll play each other twice (home & away). The top two from each group advance to a six-team group, and will play each other twice; the top three in that group are in the World Cup, and the fourth will play a team from Asia, with one of them advancing.
USA’s current group includes Trinidad & Tobago, Guatemala, and St. Vincent & the Grenadines. Every team has played 4 of its 6 matches. USA’s last two matches will be in early September (at St. Vincent & the Grenadines, and home to Trinidad & Tobago). T&T has 10 points, USA has 7, Guatemala has 6, and SV&G has zero.
Link to FIFA’s page on the WC qualifying group that includes USA
To add onto that, the gnashing of the teeth happened right after the US lost to Guatemala in Guatemala. It was the first loss to them in an extremely long time and the US looked horrible doing it. They played Guatemala in the US later that week and won convincingly, but had they lost again it would have made it very difficult to qualify.
Their two remaining games this round are away at Saint Vincent and the Grenadines and home to Trinidad and Tobago. They very much should win both those game which will send them to the next round.
For them to not make the next round basically they have to lose to T&T at home and have Guatemala win both their remaining games
I don’t think there’s any more qualifying matches until September?
September 2 & 6, so plenty of rest after the Copa America. The following round (“The Hexagonal”) starts in November.