USMNT plays Honduras on 3/24/17 in World Cup qualifying.
What needs to happen for the USMNT in this game? Does a win mean the Americans are guaranteed a spot in the World Cup? Does a loss mean they’re out? Or is this one of those things where what happens on the field is only a part of the overall picture, and the outcome will depend on other games as well (and if so, please explain those scenarios to me as well).
Thanks!
The US is in the last part of qualifying. There are 6 teams, the US plays every team home and away for a total of 10 games. The top 3 teams automatically go to the World Cup. The 4th place team plays in a 2 game playoff with a team from Asia.
The US has played 2 games and lost both. No result against Honduras ensures anything for the US, good or bad. They’d still have 7 games left and lots of things could happen. However, losing to Honduras at home puts them in the worst spot to advance than they’ve been in for probably 25 years. It’d be incredibly embarrassing for them to lose. Treat it as a must win.
They also play Panama a few days later. That’s an away game, so not as important that they win, but they still need some points.
The United States Soccer Federation is a member of the Confederation of North, Central American and Caribbean Association Football (CONCACAF). CONCACAF is one of the member regional federations of the Fédération Internationale de Football Association (FIFA). CONCACAF gets three guaranteed slots in the 2018 World Cup Finals; a fourth team gets to have a two-legged playoff (home and home) with the fifth-place qualifier from the Asian Football Confederation for a spot at the WC Finals.
To determine who gets the automatic slots, and who gets the playoff spot, CONCACAF has spent the last two years whittling down the contestants. At this point, there are six countries left in the hunt: Mexico, the US, Costa Rica, Panama, Honduras and Trinidad & Tobago. These countries are currently playing a double-round-robin tournament (home and home). Each team plays 10 games, with three points for a win, and one point for a draw. The first tie breaker in the case of equal points is goal difference (goals scored minus goals allowed); this is usually sufficient to break any ties for placing.
So far, the teams have all played two games (games are held on the same day). The US is currently in sixth place (LAST!), having lost both games. On Nov. 11, we played México in Columbus, OH, and lost 1 - 2. On Nov. 15, we played Costa Rica in San José, Costa Rica and lost 4 - 0(!!). That latter result was the final straw on the back of the Klinsmann camel, and he was replaced by Bruce Arena.
We are not in bad shape, except for our horrible goal differential (-5). Only Costa Rica has won both games; México and Panama both are 1 - 1 - 0 for 4 pts., and Honduras is 1 - 0 - 1 for 3 pts. in fourth place. T&T hasn’t won either game either, losing to both Honduras and Costa Rica. With ten games to play, we have ample time to make up ground.
I would, however, say that the game that should show whether or not Arena is going to make a significant difference will be not the game on the 24th against Honduras (a home game in San Jose), but rather the game away to Panama on the 28th. We must start getting points from away games if we wish to avoid the playoff slot. In 2014, third place got 15 out of a possible 30 points (4 - 3 - 3), and in 2010 the total needed was 16 pts (and a tie-breaker!). 2006 required 16 pts for 3rd… you get the idea. To get to 16 pts you need the equivalent of 5 wins plus 1 draw, which means you need to take points on the road. If we cannot take points off of Panama (the 5th strongest squad, most would think) away, we will be in trouble.
25 years ago would be 1992. Not much trouble with that particular qualifying campaign.
Thanks for the responses. World Cup qualifying can be a bit labyrinthine to the uninitiated.
World Cup qualifying is labyrinthine to everyone. Don’t even ask about what countries like Grenada, or Antigua have to endure to become qualified for the WC Finals. :eek:
I must say that a 6-0 thrashing of Honduras does tend to give us some hope we can be competitive. 
Amazing what a competent coach leads to 
Yeah, the Americans definitely showed up for this game. I predict we go 6-0 for the remainder of qualifying!
As I predicted, the going in Panama was much tougher. However, we did pull out the point, and now stand fourth in the group. Things are looking up.
I haven’t double checked, but I’ve heard 15 pts guaranteed 3rd place for the last 4 cycles. 4 pts with 6 games left means the US can drop 7 pts total and still hit 15. I assume Mexico will win in Mexico. That leaves two possible ties. After Mexico, Costa Rica at home and Honduras away are the hardest two games, and if the US can’t get two points from that they don’t deserve to go to the world cup.
If they finish 4th the playoff could be a challenge. They could feasibly play any of: South Korea, Japan, Saudi Arabia, Australia, and Uzbekistan. I think the US is better than any of those teams, but there’s a lot of variance in a 2 game playoff.
Points for the top 4 teams in Concacaf qualifying since 1998:
1998: 1st-18, 2nd-17, 3rd-14, 4th-12
2002: 23, 17, 17, 14
2006: 22, 22, 16, 13 (4th playoff with AFC)
2010: 20, 19, 16, 16 (4th playoff with CONMEBOL)
2014: 22, 18, 15, 11 (4th playoff with OFC)
In 1994, the US was automatically in due to hosting, so the qualifying was different.
What is the meaning of the yellow patch on the sleeve of the players? I’m not talking about captain’s armbands - every player on every team has a yellow rectangular patch sewn onto the sleeve. No words or letters or numbers at all, just blank.
It’s not blank, it’s the FIFA logo.
I went through the math of qualifying based on historical CONCACAF results in my post. 
