I’m projecting the order in New Hampshire will go:
Clark, Dean, Kerry and Lieberman. Lieberman’s been working it in Iowa, but I don’t think he has a message that will energize Dems.
I think the Iowa caucuses show that the Dems HAVE been energized by Dean’s candidacy though they didn’t wind up supporting Dean himself. I think if Dean stays in the race it’ll energize the party so much that it will carry the Dems to victory.
Even if not, if the recovery continues to be jobless and Iraq continues to be a quagmire in which we sacrifice the lives of our soldiers, and I think they both will, any Dem will beat Bush. Even Lieberman.
I’m betting that Dean wins it all after people realize that Clark’s platform is Republican-lite v.2 (Lieberman being v. 1) and the Dem constituency rejects it and Clark along with it.
The last NH polls I saw put Dean at 23-28%, Clark 15-20%, and Kerry somewhere in between. It’s a big if, but if Clark can get in the upper teens and Dean in the present range, we could have one interesting race for several weeks or months. There weren’t that many undecideds there and a primary in NH is a different thing than a caucus in Iowa. Expections have also changed.
Both Johns, particularly Kerry, are short of money. If Dean or Clark, or even if both are not knocked out because of NH, it may be difficult for Kerry to finance the next weeks 7- state contest.
Al Sharpton might want Dean to remain for the SC contest, as he is a good patsy for the race card, to drive up Sharpton’s showing there among Black voters. So don’t be surprised if the reverend throws a stink bomb into the NH contest in the next few days, to reshuttle deck.
You forgot Edwards, Captor. The poll I saw tonight had him even with Lieberman, but it was a three-day poll stretching back to before the caucuses. I expect that’ll give him the momentum to move ahead of Lieberman. It also showed Dean at 25%, Kerry at 23, Clark at 16, and Edwards/Lieberman at 7% each. Same goes for Kerry - I think the Iowa momentum will push him ahead of Dean, and 2% is well within the margin of error anyway.
It is simply foolish to predict NH, but I’m not proud. Here goes:
Kerry 2) Clark 3) Edwards 4) Dean
Clark and Edwards could flop.
It brings me great sorrow to predict Kerry winning because I have been going to the Dean Meatup’s since last August, but I still think he is far too hysterical to be seen as a viable candidate.
People don’t give these candidates enough credit. I think Bush is in a very poor position and could be beat on his tax policies alone by any of these four candidates. Personally I think the most likely pairing at this point is Kerry-Edwards, which Bush wouldn’t stand a chance against.
You’re on. An under-$50 bottle of champagne v. an under-$50 bottle of champagne brandy, of the winner’s choice within those parameters. May the best prognosticator win!
[QUOTE=E-Sabbath]
Edwards is too young and inexperienced to be president.
[QUOTE]
Huh?
Edwards is 51 years old. (He just looks younger.) He is 5 years older than Clinton was in 1992.
As for experience, he is a member of the Senate Select Committee on Intelligence, meaning he has more foreign policy experience than either Clinton or Bush had when elected.
Yours is the standard rap on Edwards, but I believe it is mostly based on his appearance.
Dean, Edwards, Kerry, Clark and Sharpton will be the last 5 candidates. (Sharpton staying in just to guarantee a speaking slot at the convention.)
Contrary to the desires and expectations of Democratic Party officials (who had hoped that the front-loaded primaries would produce a quick winner), I expect these five candidates will all stick around for a while.
Dean will rebound from his troubles in Iowa. Reports of his death are greatly exaggerated. His campaign will be much more effective in states holding primaries (as opposed to caucuses). Add to that the fact that New Hampshire voters are notoriously contrarian when it comes to endorsing the Iowa victor, and I expect Dean to hang on by the skin of his teeth and win New Hampshire.
The real question in New Hampshire is whether Edwards can make a surge. I haven’t seen any post-Iowa polls. If he finishes third or higher, and then wins in South Carolina the following week, he could be tough to stop.
I had thought Clark would sweep the Southern primaries, but now I’m not so sure. Edwards’s win in Iowa gives him new credibility. We may see Edwards and Clark splitting the South, with Dean and Kerry splitting the North. A brokered convention may be in the cards.
If Kerry gets the nomination, he will (sad to say) not win a single Southern state (no matter whom he picks as VP). His patrician air combined with his New England upbringing just will not play down here. Bush would defeat him handily, I fear. (I believe Clark and Edwards are the best bets to defeat Bush. Clark because he combines a Southern accent with a military background, and Edwards because he can deliver North Carolina, which might be enough to tip the scales.)
If Kerry wins, he will (cluelessly) select former Georgia Senator Max Cleland as his running mate. Max has been in Kerry’s camp for a while now, and is obviously desirous of VP consideration. For his part, Kerry often speaks glowingly of Cleland. Max is a nice fellow, but frankly not that sharp. He is more loved than respected. Expect many campaign trail blunders if he is VP nominee. He would not even be able to deliver his home state of Georgia.
I’ll take this bet. Something happens to Cheney and he needs to be replaced. If GWB picks his brother, you’ll win. Anyone else, I win. What do you think?
Not to speak for RTFirefly, but I didn’t get the sense he was saying W would pick his brother as a VP replacement, but rather that W would pick someone without ambition for further office for the VP slot, to clear the way for Jeb to earn the nominee spot for the GOP in 2008.
Then it’s the battle of the former Presidents’ familes: Jeb Bush vs. Hilary Clinton.
I hope that doesn’t happen. It would be very strange for the Presidential list to go Bush, Clinton, Bush, Clinton -or- Bush, Clinton, Bush, Bush.
Never thought I would say it before, but go Dean! I am assuming the winner will supply the loser with his home address to have the bottle mailed to him.
Can I ask what makes you think that Bush is grooming Jeb to replace him?
Regards,
Shodan
PS - Bricker -
Bush-Clinton-Bush-Clinton - I never thought of that!
Shodan - shoot me an email (addy’s in my profile) and we’ll work out the details without cluttering the thread.
Lord Ashtar - Bricker has read me correctly. If Cheney must be replaced, it will be by someone who doesn’t intend to use the VP post as a springboard, because Dubya doesn’t want to throw obstacles in the path of a potential Jeb-in-08 run. But Jeb won’t be that veep; not a chance.
