Election 2004 Predictions

Great Debates
81

Shodan - I don’t think Dubya’s grooming Jeb for anything; Jeb’s a talented politician in his own right, is currently serving his second term as governor of one of the most populous states in the nation, and has a family name that ensures good name recognition. He’s a viable candidate for the '08 nomination without any help from his brother.

All I’m saying is that Dubya would have the courtesy not to create or enhance the standing of a potential competitor for his brother in such a race by his choice of veep replacement, should Cheney step down.

82

THIS is exactly why I want to be ringmaster of this thread!

A week from today I’ll call the winner!

83

Well, I had to try, didn’t I? :wink:

84

You are not alone in this view, and I have to say this speaks ill of Southerners, and if I were one I’d be offended. Because what you are implying is that they vote based on a surface persona more than any other thing, and they will choose a “good ol boy” over a “patrician” just cuz it makes them feel more comfortable. Which is a lame, ignorant reason to vote for or against someone.

And sometimes I think the Civil War has never ended.

(Reminds me of a funny thing that happened when I was visiting Atlanta 20 years or so ago. I was amazed by the amount of construction going on at that time, it seemed one couldn’t travel a block without hitting a torn up street or a new building going up. So I asked someone who was working on all this why there was so much construction and rebuilding going on. His reply? “Ain’t you heard? Sherman burned Atlanta!” Cracked me up and disturbed me all at once.)

85

I think that Edwards will win the nomination. What makes Edwards electable is his looks, we really are that simple.

As for New Hampshire, Kerry will win and Edwards will finish a surprising third.

Also, the Panthers will win the Super Bowl.

86

Ah, but you’re not a Southerner. For if you were, you’d know that I only speak the truth, and would find no cause to take offense.

No. I’m saying that a significant portion of Southerners feel that way. Enough to turn an election in battleground Southern states.

And I’d go further and say that it’s not just Southerners who feel this way. I think that (unfortunately) a lot of people give politicians the “beer test,” as in: “Would I feel comfortable sitting down with this guy for a beer?” Gore (a Southerner) failed that test. Bush passed it. Kerry fails that test.

Aww. We love it when you sweet talk us like that.

Why? Gore (as I’ve noted) had the same failings.

Matter of fact, one thing I like about Howard Dean (primal screams notwithstanding) is that he passes the beer test. He comes across as a regular guy. You can imagine yourself watching a football game with him. His manner does not reek of prep school condescension (a la Kerry and Gore).

87

I frankly don’t think any better of most of the population: I think a huge number of people vote for candidates based on superficial criteria, such as, “Cool! A movie star! Let’s make HIM president!”

Daniel

88

The Boston Globe - WBZ-TV and Boston Herald post-Iowa polls both show the same thing:

Kerry 31%
Dean 21%
Clark 16%
Edwards 11%
Lieberman 4%

The Zogby and ARG 3-day tracking polls that should come out later this morning will be taken M-T-W so will still have a day of pre-Iowa in them.

89

No sack-dancing, RT! It’s ungentlemanly.

But it DOES add some spice to the contest, doesn’t it?

90

Again, that’s consistant with expectations. A quick, large boost to the winner, and Dean’s outburst seems to have hurt him. (I don’t think it was any worse than a speech at a pep rally, but I’ve not seen the speech. Just heard it.)

Clark, however, has been campaigning all along, and he’s still in third. He’s dead. And he has stated repeatedly he’s not going to be VP. If this is an accurate summation of his goals, he’s dead except as a rub he can give someone.

Edwards: I didn’t mean he was young, I know how old he is, but I keep hearing him described as young. Compared to the rest, he is. I think the perspective is that he’s being pitched as young, and it’s not helping. I can see him as president one day, I certainly like the way he’s been running his campaign, and he seems like the kind of man I’d be proud to have as the President. (Saying nothing about his views, simply his character)

I don’t think it’s going to be this time, though.

Kerry and Dean are going to be fighting for the lead. Clark’s only going to be there as a spoiler.

Honestly, this is, as far as I can tell, the best crop of politicians the Dems have sent out in ages. Now they’ve shaken most of the trailing oddballs, I think I can honestly say that if anyone can beat Bush, one of these men is the right choice to do it.

On the other hand, I’m registered republican, I am a libertarian at heart, and an actual conservative… which tells you where I stand.

Bush forming a government program to council marriages alone is enough to make me go “What the hell?” Ignoring the rest of the issues, for the moment, it annoys the heck out of me to see a putative republican doing something like that.

91

Ah, but would it make you consider voting for Kerry or Dean.

That’s the important question. Will GWB’s expansion of government and the growing deficit influence some borderline voters to vote away from GWB or simply stay home?

92

Shodan - There were some problems with my ISP yesterday. If you emailed me yesterday, could you please re-send? Thanks.

93

E-Sabbath, Clark’s not dead by a long shot. I’m generally much more liberal than he is, but I will vote for him. And I dare say he is going to win the nomination and the presidency. Why? Not only is he good looking, intelligent, and in the possession of some pretty hard to beat credentials, but this is Bill Clinton’s candidate. And if there is anyone who knows how to win an election, particularly against a well-funded Bush, it’s Bill Clinton.

My money is on Clark.

94

It does.

But my post really wasn’t intended to be celebratory; there’s still a lot of volatility out there. The poll results were new news, and it gave me the chance to get links to four tracking polls in one place.

Still, I think that in order to win NH, Dean has to do well in tonight’s televised debate. The burden is really back on him to show voters why they should pick him over Kerry, Clark, and Edwards. If the Dems ultimately win this election, they’ll forever owe Dean a debt for having brought the party back to being willing to take on the GOP head-on. But now that the other viable candidates have caught up with him there, he’s got to show voters what else he’s got that they don’t. And I can’t see what that might be.

95

RTFirefly - you’ve got mail.

It will be interesting if, in the debate tonight, the other Dems go after Kerry as the putative front-runner, try to finish off Dean once and for all, or try to remain above the fray and look Presidential. I am sure Sharpton will have any number of race-related “gotchas” ready for Kerry if he chooses to do so.

I think Dean’s best chance would be to play on the “angry” image and try to make it look passionate. Go after Bush, and blame anyone who doesn’t play along as being divisive. If he can bring it off, and his concession speech was just a fluke.

Of course, the New Hampshire primary could be just as big a surprise as the Iowa was.

Regards,
Shodan

96

Try this kids…

One of my pals who covers The Hill just offered me 500-1 odds that GWB wins.

So I bet him $50.

I’m giving him the chance to check with his wife before confirming the bet. I think that’s only fair, don’t you?

97

I’m pessimistic about the Democratic chances, but I’d take that bet! Damn!

98

Hmmm… I suppose I should add some substance to the debate.

Dean’s still slipping in New Hampshire, as is Clark. If Dean can’t pull a strong outcome out of his hat, he might as well go home. South Carolina won’t be as hospitable as his own neighbors.

Edwards and Clark will do much stronger, and Kerry, although at a slight disadvantage, will also show well due to his momentum.

The questions are: Can Clark make a comeback? He’s in more trouble than Dean at this point. He’ll do better in the South, but Edwards will overshadow him.

Who’s the next out? My money says Lieberman is waiting to use NH as an excuse to drop out.

I predict a too-close-to call Edwards/Kerry melee. Which is good, as they’re probably the two most electable.

99

Yeah, the wife might want to know they’re on the hook for $25K. :slight_smile:

The polls this morning are all over the place. They’ve all got Kerry in front, of course, but they give different readings of the size of the lead, and the relative standings of Dean, Clark, and Edwards.

The Boston Globe’s 2-day tracking poll, reflecting polling done on Wednesday and Thursday, is the most current. It has Kerry-Dean-Clark-Edwards-Lieberman at 34-19-14-11-3%.

The other three polls are 3-day tracking polls. Zogby and ARG show the results of polling Tuesday through Thursday, while CNN/USA Today is a day behind, with M-T-W polling.

Zogby has Kerry-Dean-Clark-Edwards-Lieberman at 30-22-14-7-6, and ARG has Kerry-Clark-Dean-Edwards-Lieberman at 31-20-18-11-7. CNN/USA has Kerry-Dean-Clark-Edwards-Lieberman at 30-25-18-11-8, and also Kucinich with 4%, while nobody else has him above 1%. And CNN/USA is also problematic since 1/3 of its polling was pre-Iowa - old news.

The interesting stuff is in the second tier here, IMHO. Is Clark really down around 14%, per Zogby and the Globe? Or is he up around 18-20%, per ARG and CNN/USA? That’s a nontrivial difference, and it also tells you whether his support is picking up or diminishing over time. Similarly with Edwards: if he’s still struggling in single digits, per Zogby, he’s running out of time to nudge his numbers up into a better bracket, but if he’s at 11% like everyone else says, then he’s been steadily gaining ground over the past week and a half, and if he just continues to pick up at the same rate between now and Tuesday, he could pull a respectable tie for third here.

Over the weekend, the tracking polls will start to reflect the results of last night’s debate, which I didn’t see since I don’t have cable. But it sounds like while nobody shot themselves in the foot, nobody exactly stood out from the others that much either, except for possibly Kerry. So it doesn’t look like last night will rearrange things much.

100

Who wouldn’t? But I’m actually starting to be optimistic about the Dems. And I don’t mean just the Presidential election; I mean the whole party. I think there’s a chance - just a chance - that we may be at a turning of the tide. I think the last time I was optimistic about the party’s fortunes was in early 1994, before Clinton’s health care push bogged down, and before Paula Jones surfaced in the news. But a bit of good cheer is starting to sneak into my heart these days when I think about the landscape.

We’ve got good candidates. The Dem nominee is going to be Kerry, Edwards, or possibly Clark. Whichever one of them ends up being the nominee, he will be a strong candidate. If Kerry wins, he will have continued to shed his New England reserve enough to be passionate about the things he stands for. If it’s Edwards, he will have had to convince people that, in addition to having the Elvis factor on his side, he’s also got enough substance to him to be up to the job. And if Clark wins, he’ll have had to connect with the everyday concerns of voters, and not just demonstrate that he can run a war. So whoever wins will come out of this season looking even stronger than he looks today.

But, better than that: they’re making the affirmative case for the things Democrats should stand for, if there’s going to be any point to being a Democrat. A little over a year ago, I was griping that the Dems were losing because they couldn’t beat something with nothing, no matter how piss-poor that something was. That’s changed; our guys are going after them now. And this is what makes me optimistic. Ever since 1994, it seems like the Dems have been playing defense, hoping to not give up too much ground. The GOP always had the ball, was always pushing their agenda further and in new ways, and the Dems were just reacting and playing defense. That seems to finally be over now, at long last.

I don’t yet know if the Dems will take the White House in November, but I’m starting to think it may be closer to even odds than at any time since 9/11/01. But I think that if the Dems do win, it will be a win with coattails, because it’ll be a win that will go to the roots of the differences between the parties. And that will mean that voters that vote for the Dem nominee will have a good reason to keep pulling the Dem lever further down the ballot.

And while right now, I’d like to see Dean drop out of the action as quickly and quietly as possible, he’s the guy the Dems should thank if all this comes to pass. He showed them that Dem voters were practically starving for someone who would take on the GOP, and finally they got the message.

That’s why I am hopeful about politics, for the first time in a decade.