What would the map look like if we filled in the states we can lock in right now? (lock in=We know for a fact who’ll carry it)
Thanks card! Very cool.
This is probably the most conservative map I could come up with right now (meaning the most “toss ups”): http://www.270towin.com/2012_election_predictions.php?mapid=oog
Something more likely would be this: http://www.270towin.com/2012_election_predictions.php?mapid=ooi
You can play around and set up whatever you feel is most “locked in” to get the state of the field.
And here is a somewhat plausible doomsday scenario: http://www.270towin.com/2012_election_predictions.php?mapid=ooj
Yikes! That’s a bit too close to plausible for me. Come on, New Hampshire!
I think it’s not really as plausible as it seems because NE changed their split somehow. 538 has Obama at a very low win chance in any of those districts this time around. So without that if everything else stays the same Romney would actually win 270-268.
I agree that a Romney win will be a close one. Somewhere between 270 and 285. An Obama win could be another thing entirely.