Two questions really, but tied in together. I’ve been hearing that we’ll run out of oil in the next five decades for the last two, so what’s the actual current estimate?
The second one is more involved and what I’m really curious about. With population growth being relatively predictable and the emerging Asian economies being able to fit an established growth model, will we (humanity) make it energy wise given current trends in converting to alternative sources and growth in energy production?
Thanks in advance
Luke
(I’ve read the article about future energy, but I feel that this question is quite different.)
The general debate is whether we have reached “peak oil” yet or not. To keep supplying oil, we would have to find a new Saudi Araia every decade or sooner. The big debate, too, is ove whether some places, like Saudi Arabia and Iran, are already in decline in terms of production capability but are hiding the situation.
Regardless, there are other sources of energy - coal, natural gas epecially - that may offer some room for growth. Coal especially, supposedly we have decades if no ceturies left, depending on how much you want to spend to get at it.
Note that none of these solve the global warning problem.
The next question is how much energy is actually required for a good lifestyle? North America is profoundly wasteful, with spread-out cities full of long-distance commuters using private vehicles that consume far more gas than necessary. There’s no room for a world full of this, but well-fed transit commuters living in small apartments in concetrated cties? Maybe that will work.
My gues is that the prosperity and energy-use will be relative to a country’s ability to limit its population growth.
Plus, “Asia” is a variable concept. China is due for a masive crunch in a few years as the single-child-of-single-children dominates the demographic. IIRC, one estimate said China’s population will start to shrink by 2040; Japan like Europe is below replacement level already. Africa could double in population, but they sure as heck won’t all be driving cars. India? Who knows. Indonesia and Thailand? Who knows.
As already mentioned whether we are at “peak oil” or not is debatable. What is certain is oil is a finite resource and we are already going to considerably extra effort to access it (shale oil, very deep sea drilling and so on). We have tapped pretty much all of the “easy” to get oil.
We also know that worldwide consumption of oil is increasing. We have less of it today than we did 50 years ago and more people want it.
How much longer we will be able to have a petroleum based economy is open to question. While we do not know when the resource will be mostly tapped out we have good reason to believe it is within the next several decades. It is also not as if oil will just “stop” one day. As it becomes more scarce the cost of it will rise. Hopefully this will allow enough time and be incentive enough to better develop alternatives.
We have the technology to exploit many other sources of energy. Nuclear or wind or solar or biofuels or other options.
Whenever the end of oil comes it will perforce spur the development of alternate resources. We are only dancing around these alternatives now because oil is relatively cheap in comparison and will remain so. The established economy and base of our energy consumption is firmly embedded in oil. When there is no more oil other options will become attractive and be used.
Whether we can remain a global society with everyone having a car and cheap plane flights to anywhere will depend on the economics of the alternatives. It is reasonable to assume the world will adapt.
The more scary part is what the Middle East will do when they become valueless as a region when the oil runs out. Their economies are largely supported by oil revenue. The geopolitical fallout is probably of more concern than what we will do without oil since alternatives to oil exist. Some countries (like the UAE) seem to be planning for a future without oil as the foundation of their economy (witness the growth of Dubai as a business center). Other more short sighted countries will flounder.
The problem is, oil will not “run out”. It will become scarcer and scarcer, and as a result more expensive.
How expensive does oil have to get before you start using a bicycle for shopping, before you will wait half an hour for a bus to get work instead of driving? Before a paper bag makes more sense than plastic? Before we replace plastic with metal, wood, and other material?
History shows that these things don’t creep up on us, but come in big bangs; remember just before the housing bubble crashed, oil was heading to $150 a barrel - a big surprise in a matter of less than a year. As soon as the world recovers enough - fortunately(?) not any time soon, it seems - watch for a repeat run-up, gas doubling within a year.
The question is, will we have time to adapt? The US transit systems are not set up to handle 5 times as many commuters and to service areas that are currently driver heaven. The rail system, incredibly more efficient, is not set up to carry all the freight currently going by large truck. If shipping cost becomes prohibitive, can we build factories here fast enough to replace the ones that moved overseas? And so on…
Isn’t that mostly to do with market factors rather than scarcity or cost of extraction? While they of course play a big role I’m not sure that it’s neccessarily applicable in the long run.
Oil is just one part of the question though. Looking at oilfield production compared to reserves, most of the larger oil fields have in excess of 60 years. As demand increases this will decrease assuming the quoted reserves are accurate. But then we have synthetic fuels: biofuels, coal and natural gas etc, and a growth in alternative energy sources.
Interesting about the population crunch predicted for china. Are there any accurate estimates. I’ve looked at the various estimates of global population on wikipedia but India and other nations growth probably conceals any drop in population in china.
Also, I’d be careful about making generalizations about Africa. There are many countries there with large populations that are growing at huge rates, but are also developing quite nicely. I’m not sure what you imagine, but several of these countries have large urban centers and don’t exactly operate at European efficiency levels. I foresee huge increases on energy demands there.
The real reason I ask about Asia though is cause they are what’s happening now and should be relatively easy to predict (African nations being more wild cards at the moment I feel).
Anyways, thanks for comments so far. Curious to see what else you think.