Enough Democrat smugness. It is the Democratic Party, not the GOP, which is dying--nay, already dead

Face it. The Democrats only got into office in 2006 & 2008 because GWB was insanely unpopular. The country had already swung toward having only one national party; it was a passing protest vote. Once in office, the Dems completely failed to hold onto their base, and thus hold onto power*—in a census year.* The Democrats would be more worried about being to dumb to win if they actually cared about winning. Which they don’t, because they lack unity, either demographic or ideological.

The GOP, as cultish as they are, actually have a sort of program they can all get behind. It may be stupid, but it’s unified. Democrats seem uninterested, because they really all disagree with each other, with their constituents, with their supposed base, with progressivism itself.

This year’s US Senate elections are the chance to remove some of the class from the TEA Party wave from 2010. Should be easy, right? Especially in a presidential election year, with high turnout! And yet, none of the Democrats actually think they can win back the Senate. That’s telling.

Ever since Newt Gingrich, the “movement conservatives” have changed norms in Washington, and exploited the giant holes in the constitution. They are remaking the political power structure, and they are winning. In fact, they have already won.

From the recent “What’s Obama’s long game” thread, in answer to the question of what the GOP Senate’s game is in refusing to confirm any SC Justice, BG said:

Yeah, about that. Obama’s administration is doing quite the job to save them there.

First, he’s helping the GOP by deporting more Latin Americans than have ever been deported in the USA’s history. The *anglo share of the electorate is being well shored up. Further, what latinos *are left have little incentive to vote for the party of Obama.

Second, he bailed out Wall Street and left Main Street to drown. Now, to continue the madness, he’s throwing his support behind a woman totally tied to the elite of the elite, the hated natural enemy of the working class base. The white working class is breaking for Trump.

There is no coming demographic win for the Democratic Party, a party which can barely win elections as it is. The Democrats not only have no power anymore, they have no electoral base with which to gain one, and they never will again. Most of the people—the ostensible base of a populist center-left party—actually hate them, have good reason to hate them, & just feel stuck with them. The feeling is obviously mutual.

Hillary Clinton can win the presidency, and idiots will be excited that a woman sits in the Oval Office. We’ll see videos of little old ladies visiting the White House and dancing for joy, like we’ve seen with little old black ladies getting to meet Barack & Michelle. And you’ll think that’s enough. But she won’t hold onto Congress, because she doesn’t have a program for a party, and while she can get in on her own notoriety, the Democratic Party as a whole doesn’t have an enthusiastic base. It’s the same problem Obama has. The GOP do have a program, and a base.

What’s Obama’s long game? Failure is the only option. The Democratic Party is going the way of the Whigs, after all this time. Obama would barely do less damage if he murdered Joe Biden tomorrow, went to prison, and thus made Speaker Ryan president.

This is going to be effectively a one-party state by 2030.

What is this I don’t even

First of all, I applaud the OP for use of the term “Democratic Party” instead of the juvenile “Democrat Party”. Second, if you live near a graveyard I hope the OP’s whistling hasn’t kept you awake.

So fuck the gays, fuck the Muslims, fuck the Mexicans, and keep up those tax breaks for the elite is a program? Interesting.

Not really. We’re bouncing back quite nicely after the recession, if only the corporate media would let you know. This despite Republicans’ attempt to sabotage the economy.

Who says that? I think flipping the Senate is a foregone conclusion.

Yup, and it has two main features: pander to the stupid and/or ignorant, and suppress the vote as much as they can.

Yeah, no, that’s not going to happen. The OP is a mishmash of speculation, opinion and just plain wishful thinking. The Democrats have plenty of popular support - which is why the GOP is so reliant on the aforementioned gerrymandering and is working so hard to put up barriers to voting for traditional Democratic demographic groups. If the electoral base was so weak, why would they bother?

The Democrats will certainly have to change to survive, but so will any political party wishing to remain relevant. But the GOP are the ones currently engaged in infighting so serious that half the members of the party are publicly insulting the other half in a presidential election year. That’s pretty bad - it’s basically a civil war for the party and the eventual winner will inherit a weakened party.

Is this the end of the GOP? Probably not. Will the Democrats benefit greatly from the GOP’s current turmoils? Somewhat, but they’re notoriously bad at capitalizing on this sort of thing and will probably screw it up. What will the GOP or Democratic Party look like in four or eight or fourteen years? No idea.

But the “evidence” set out in the OP of the demise of the Democratic Party is no evidence at all. If the party dies before 2030 it won’t be down to any of the nonsense expressed above.

Say what you want about the tenets of the Republican Party, dude - at least it’s an ethos.

I’ve also heard Republicans complaining that many of the jobs created don’t have affordable wages, as if the GOP hadn’t been busily blocking every effort to increase the minimum wage and improving other worker benefits.

Never assume “foregone conclusions” in an election, but the odds are good if the Democrats don’t fuck it up themselves.

I thought the OP was some kind of parody.

Now I’m wondering if the OP is posting from Bizarro world.

The future political landscape will depend upon which Party the retirees view more favorably.

None of those deported are voters. How does that hurt Democrats? I suppose you could make the case that if they stayed here, some might become citizens at some point, or their children born here would be citizens, but by political standards, that is a very long game.

Other than the party of Trump hates them?

You said a similar thing in 2014, and you were distinctly wrong then.


Yes, Obama won just 71% of Latino voters in 2012. In 2008 it was 67%. Latinos are leaving the sinking ship in droves.

Overall, props for a remarkably reality-free rant!

While one could make a case that the OP reads like the hyperbolic rantings of a Teabagger Gone Full Bath Salts*, I think there is a kernel of truth to be gleaned from it.

Look at the landscape. Government is almost entirely controlled by Repubs. And don’t just look at the federal level—count those governorships and statehouses. This country is pretty damned Red right now, and given how badly Repubs govern, it is troubling that those who still bother to vote are choosing them anyway.

*IIRC the OP is a frustrated anti-Clinton voter (which is not the same as a Sanders supporter) and is the architect of the Bill Clinton’s Dick thread. Make of that what you will.

What’s your track record for political predictions’ accuracy?

Was there enough GWB residue left over in 2012 to account for Obama’s winning a second term?

Anyway, you say the GOP has a program that everyone can all get behind. Would you mind sharing with us what that program might be? I can’t see it for some reason. My vision may be clouded by the flashing of the knives and all the blood being sprayed as the GOP national leaders all stab each other in the back in an effort to get everyone in line.

As for “The Emerging Democratic Majority” (Teixeira, Judis. 2004), it still seems to be in progress. Millennials (ages 18-33) are more liberal than any group in US history. The GOP brand is toxic to this generation and only 3% identify as “strongly conservative.” Add in the “mostly conservative” among them and you get a whole 15%. But even those group have far more liberal views that their conservative predecessors.

Sixty percent of Americans have an unfavorable view of Republicans, and a only third of Republicans have a favorable views of themselves. If you look at the GOP Party Platform which is still opposed to gay marriage, anti-abortion but pro death penalty, anti-environment, anti-tax, anti-government, etc., those views don’t resonate with the majority anymore. Seriously, you can’t claim to “love the Constitution” and then refuse to do your duty, for example, in the case of Obama’s nominating a justice to the SC.

In contrast, over 80% of Democrats like Obama and want to see his vision continued.
Primary Republican voter attributes are that they are older, whiter, and more religious that Democrats. The country is younger, browner, and less religious that it has ever been. What I see is people who are shedding labels, everyone is an “independent” now, but that “democrat” describes their voting habits.

IIRC BobLibDem tends to be a little…overoptimistic…about such things. But he means well.

See, one of the things that’s interesting to me about the Sanders “revolution” is its structure. To the extent that it’s a revolution at all…It isn’t a bottom-up revolution, and it isn’t even a top-down revolution. It’s a top-only revolution. It’s about putting a “man of the people” in the White House, and there it stops. Who are the congressional candidates Sanders is supporting, the ones he’s giving time and money and shout outs to because they think the way he does? Are there any? Are they different from the ones that Clinton likes and supports? What gubernatorial candidates does Sanders see as like-minded? How is he supporting and nurturing them? What about state legislators? I’m not seeing any focus in the Sanders camp on developing and nurturing progressive changes in American politics other than “elect Bernie Sanders.”

I’m not trying to blame Sanders. I Think that he is as surprised as is anybody with the success he has had. I’m not sure he’s constitutionally able to build this sort of superstructure that goes beyond the Presidency. And it’s got to be awfully heady for him to be always on the nightly news, to be speaking in front of 15,000 screaming people, to have Rachel Maddow giving him softball questions on national TV. He’s always done things his way, and this is his way.

But when I see comments like the OP’s, talking about alienation of Democrats from their party, talking about how directionless the Dems seem, how illiberal they are–well, I don’t understand why some of the energy that’s gone into the Sanders campaign hasn’t been focused on making changes at the state level and the local level. If you want to change a party and the perception of the party, if you really think that everybody “hates” the party, the way to make the change is from the bottom up or at least from the top down. It simply isn’t going to work to pin all your hopes on a flawed insurgent presidential candidate and then to give up in disgust when it becomes clear he isn’t going to win. Not if the goal is to make fundamental change.

It’s easy to give $27 to a guy who is running a high profile campaign, easy to show up at a rally for him, easy to vote for him. But what about the real work of creating lasting change on a grass roots level? That’s harder on a whole bunch of different levels. And as far as I can see many of the people complaining most bitterly about the system don’t seem interested.

I’m more often correct than adaher.

The GOP isn’t dead, and the GOP isn’t close to dead. Remember that Presidential election that the Democrats won in a landslide? Me neither. Anyone think the Democrats are going to win this one in a landslide? Me neither.
The GOP is due for a shakeup- an evolution, if you will- due to the changing demographic makeup of the U.S of A., but that’s all. They will figure out eventually that alienating people who aren’t white guys isn’t a long term strategy.

Offhand, there was Obama 332, Romney 206.
Then there was Obama 365, McCain 173

In the past few years I’ve seen America accept gay marriage legally and in our attitudes, a new basis set for universal health care, the first inroads made into ending the drug war with legalization, justice reform and decriminalization, government support for renewable energy increase, better use of diplomacy to favor a fairer world, unemployment once again fall to nearly ideal levels, serious action on raising the minimum wage to livable levels, better acceptance by our government of immigrants that while here illegally, aren’t causing problems, and a supreme court that will be far more favorable to my Democratic party-aligned views of the world (not that it gave too many upsets in the recent past anyway).

Only one of those things required a Democratic majority in Congress.

I point all these things out because I am so fucking tired of Bernie supporters pissing and moaning about how awful things are. Screw making the Democratic party the Progressive party and screw your forever-unsatisfied outlook on life. Seriously, go to hell. Make do with what you get even when you lose like the rest of us.