I know this is highly speculative right now so maybe we will all spitball then the thread goes on hiatus until the files are released. I’ll start off the assumption that the House & Senate are both approximately 50/50 splits between Republicans & Democrats and that the Epstein files show that Trump’s actions were on par with Prince Andrew. Oh and Trump will never resign the Presidency.
When it comes down to it, politicians want to be re-elected and based on how the public would respond, I think getting a majority of Representatives to impeach is a no brainer. Only those that come from the most MAGA of districts would even think about voting against it. The real question would be would 67 Senators would convict? For that you would need 20-25 Pubs to vote for conviction … and if they do, it would be the first time a President has ever been removed from office (although Nixon was forced to resign knowing he would be convicted). In 2028, 17 Republican Senators will be running for re-election (counting Florida and not counting South Carolina). Even if it is a strong red state, those senators still need to win primaries so the real questions are
What states are so MAGA that they would support a Senator that kept a pedo Trump in office? I don’t think that is non-zero.
What Republican Senators would have the backbone to vote to convict even if they are not up for re-election? Murkowski would but she is running for re-election in 2028 so we can’t double-count her voice. Maybe Collins but she voted for Kavenaugh so I don’t count her as a lock for voting conviction.
At this point, I’m quite convinced the MAGA core wouldn’t turn against him. And the rest of the Republicans had a perfect opportunity to be rid of Trump in 2021 and they didn’t take it.
Right. The only reason to push for the release of the Epstein files is to get whatever justice we can for the victims of the other perpetrators. And also, Trump doesn’t want us to. Fuck that guy.
There is nothing, nothing Trump could do that would turn GOP politicians against him. Instead, they are essentially canonizing him, despite him never being broadly popular or helpful to them at all.
I’m pretty sure it’s all about campaign donations that would dry up if Trump told them to quit giving money to individuals. Washington is mostly run by money, not ethics.
Firstly I’m really skeptical that this could be the case. As I have pointed out on other threads. So this evidence would have to have existed, and been in federal possession, since the first Trump term at the absolute latest, yet even it’s existence has not leaked (remember rumors about what Prince Andrew did with Epstein and what evidence might exist for it have been circulating for many years, and in fact have been discussed in court under oath)
Though I guess that isn’t what the OP is asking.
zero (or very close to it)
I’d put more chance of a slime mold evolving a spine before the 2028 election than the GOP
The only way the Epstein files lead to impeachment is if the Epstein files (combined with the state of the economy) lead to enough democratic lawmakers after the 2026 midterms to impeach trump without any help from the GOP. Which is a very slim chance.
The most optimistic assessment is that if the Democrats could get within a couple of votes of impeachment maybe one or two might flip. But that’s it. Some “expressions of concern” maybe, voting against the dear leader en masse, no way.
And I stand by my position that it’s quite likely that enough people from across the political spectrum are in there that we have a rare case of bipartisan agreement.
IOW, Trump and Clinton are both in there. Along with Gates and Dershowitz.* Mutually Assured Destruction
*Names taken from thin air by way of example, not an actual prediction.
But there is no way that system would work IMO. I mean clearly all those people were involved with Epstein, there is enough in the public domain for that to be clear.
But I don’t buy the idea that a whole bunch of more incriminating evidence on all these people existed in secret for years in federal possession, and went across innumerable officials desks (including 4 years of the Trump administration), with no one leaking even the existence of that evidence.
Also name one occasion the trump administration acted like it thought there might be repercussions when they were out of power? If there was a folder full of incriminating evidence about Clinton it would be public by the end of the first day of the first trump administration, whatever was in there about Trump.
The Republicans thought that Trump was useful in 2016, 2020, and 2024.
But if they’re heading into the 2026 mid-terms and it looks like Republican congressmen will lose their seats for supporting Trump, they will race to stab him in the back. They’ll want to impeach him before Election Day so they can steal the credit for it.
Regarding what is in there: I think that the evidence is something along the lines that Trump knew that Epstine was having sex with underage women, may even had seen it first hand and still remained best friends with him, but probably not evidence that Trump participated himself.
Regarding the results if it’s revealed: I don’t think that it would be enough for them to vote for impeachment but it might, tarnish his reputation enough to knock him down from god king to lame duck, so that they might have enough political cover to vote against some of his more damaging policies.
Yeah but that would require a mass defection of the GOP base away from Trump. And I don’t see what the OP describes (“Prince Andrew level” revelations) doing that. Which is absolutely insane and shameful, I would not have believed you if you’d said that ten years ago, but that’s the world we live in
Video of Trump having a threesome with an underage girl and Lucifer wouldn’t be enough to get him removed from office. Not that it matters; all signs point to a reunion with Epstein sooner rather than later.
Thing is, and why Epstein won’t go away for Trump, is that child sex abuse holds a special place in the hatred of MAGA. No way Trump gets impeached for something like demolishing part of the White House without the proper permits, but raping kids? Maybe.
Look at the House Republicans who want to release the Epstein files: Thomas Massie, Marjorie Taylor Greene, Nancy Mace, and Lauren Boebert. There are some pretty far gone MAGA true believers in that list.
Just this last weekend was an X thread from some journalist saying that some members of the House have been told by some FBI/DOJ people that the Epstein files are even worse for Trump than had been previously thought. That’s a whole lot of unaccredited rumors that probably add up to nothing, but maybe…
The old “bad for Trump” rumor was a claim by Michael Wolff that he saw photos of Trump with “half-naked” young girls sitting on his lap. Supposedly the new rumors are that it is much worse.
We know that Virginia Giuffre was recruited from Mar-a-lago by Epstein. “Worse” would certainly be that there are more, and done with Trump’s full knowledge, and pictures and video showing Trump was one of the abusers.
Child sex abuse may be a step too far for MAGA to overlook. If so, and they are loud enough about it, Trump’s protection in the House and Senate may crumble.
A whole hell of a lot of maybe/ifs/rumor in all that.
I think the bottom line is that if the files come out, and are really bad for Trump, MAGA is going to split into factions that still follow Trump and that want him prosecuted. GOP members of congress are going to have to make some decisions about which part of their base they upset.
The Republicans are in a tough spot them put themselves in. At this point they cannot simply pivot away from Trump. They are in cahoots with him. They’re doing everything in their power to to bury the Epstein files. They can’t just abandon Trump because they are active participants in protecting him.
Child sex abuse by democrats does. The public information linking Trump and Epstein is extremely damning, but it didn’t stop them voting for him
My personal opinion, is that this more to do with Trump’s deteriorating mental state, he knows what he’s done so no matter that what’s in the files is not much worse than what’s already public, his addled brain doesn’t comprehend that he’s doing himself more harm by keeping them secret.
That said every day this goes on, makes me think maybe I’m wrong? And there is something in there. Logic may say there isn’t much in there but Trump’s actions say there something incriminating as all hell in there
He boasted about walking into dressing rooms while women are changing and looking at them undressed. He thinks this makes him a successful ladies man who can seduce anyone he likes, rather than a sex criminal and peeping tom.
Some of the women were fifteen years old.
And his party knows this and continues to give their support.
If the Epstein files show proof that he had sex with underage girls they will still support him.
