Erik Bedard: The other big pitching trade

The Game Room
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I’m ecstatic to see that my Seattle Mariners have finally completed the trade with the Baltimore Orioles for ace LH starting pitcher Erik Bedard:

This just might be the deal that gets the M’s back to the postseason.

What do our resident Orioles fans (are there any here?) think about this deal? I’m not familiar with the three minor league pitchers, but you guys are getting an outstanding reliever in Sherrill, and the general consensus is that Adam Jones is going to be a star.

My only worry is how this might affect Mariners starter Felix Hernandez mentally. He was our #1 starter last year, and it looks like the addition of Bedard might bump him to #2. As young as King Felix is, this could be a test of his mental and emotional maturity.

One more question for O’s fans: what’s the correct pronunciation of Bedard? BED-ard, or be-DARD?

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I’m wondering about this trade myself, because I simply can’t gauge how good Bedard is. I mean, I’ve seen him pitch and I know he’s done a number or two on some lineups, but he did so playing mostly out of the race. What will he do when there’s a real expectation that he will deliver a playoff berth? Just not sure about that. Of course, he was pitching in Camden Yards, which seems like a hitters’ park; he should benefit from pitching in Safeco.

I do think you don’t have to worry about Hernandez. King Felix is going into his third (?) season now, and he’s got a ton of stuff–if he’s got any kind of makeup, now’s the time it will show. He’ll only be the #2 starter if he doesn’t pitch like a #1.

The biggest worry might be that this trade, with the prospects Seattle gave up, might be a win now or else trade. I don’t know how rich is the Mariners’ farm system. Remember, Seattle is still not far removed from some bad seasons, and two pitchers might not make a difference if the lineup goes south again.

As another AL West guy, I’ll say it will be interesting for certain. A reason to check out Seattle when they hit the Coliseum this season.

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Is it just me or does it seem like the Orioles got more for Bedard than the Twins did for Santana?

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I dunno. I’ve seen Bedard’s stats, I’ve seen him pitch a few times, but I’m not sure what the hype is about. Maybe I happen to catch pedestrian games.

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[QUOTE=Omniscient]
Is it just me or does it seem like the Orioles got more for Bedard than the Twins did for Santana?
[/QUOTE]
Heh, yeah, this is what I thought too. Honestly I don’t really know too much about AA guys outside of Boston’s Paw Sox (Aatually just outside of Providence), but this seems like a reall good deal for both teams while the Santana deal still sounds like a steal. I don’t believe Felix Hernandez has anything to worry about. He’s been the club’s #1 guy for a couple years now, and baseball is a sentimental sort of games. Maybe they’ll switch things up when Seattle gets to the playoffs (yes I believe they will in that conference), but for now Hernandez remains the face of the club along with Suzuki.

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[QUOTE=Not A Tame Lion]
King Felix is going into his third (?) season now, and he’s got a ton of stuff
[/QUOTE]

Oh hell yeah. Remember early last season vs. the Red Sox? That one game was being hyped sky-high as Ichiro vs. Matsuzaka … and Felix went in there and one-hit the Sox.

And all us Mariners fans were thinking, “We’re going to the Series.”
:stuck_out_tongue:

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[QUOTE=Phase42]
Oh hell yeah. Remember early last season vs. the Red Sox? That one game was being hyped sky-high as Ichiro vs. Matsuzaka … and Felix went in there and one-hit the Sox.
[/QUOTE]
I remember that game, one of the best during the whole season even though the Sox lost. When you see a performance that good you just gotta respect that. I felt almost the same way when the Sox lost to Jason Schmidt in San Francisco a couple seasons ago. Just awesome to watch.

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[QUOTE=Omniscient]
Is it just me or does it seem like the Orioles got more for Bedard than the Twins did for Santana?
[/QUOTE]

Oh, they absolutely did. The Twins basically dumped Santana. As to why? Well, the two big/obvious reasons.

Bedard is under (reasonable) contract for two years vs. Santana’s one remaining (and even that one remaining year got bumped up to 20mm by the extension).

Santana had a complete no-trade clause, and as such had to approve any potential deal. He basically restricted the potential destinations to “East Coast teams that can afford to give me a contract near $150mm”. Which is why all we really heard about were those three teams bidding.

[QUOTE=Least Original User Name Ever]
I dunno. I’ve seen Bedard’s stats, I’ve seen him pitch a few times, but I’m not sure what the hype is about. Maybe I happen to catch pedestrian games.
[/QUOTE]

I was of sort of the same opinion for a while, but I did see this game in person last summer on a trip back to Baltimore. He was pretty much exactly as dominating as it looks like in the box score - it wasn’t on the level of some of the Pedro games that I saw back when he was with Boston, but it was definite ace material.

Plus, I mean, you can’t argue with the stats, especially with the competition that he’s been pitching against, and in that hitter’s park. Just a matter of how healthy he can stay.

As for the trade itself, I like it more from the O’s standpoint. They aren’t going to need Bedard for the next two years, they weren’t going to keep him, and Jones alone will be well worth it even if the other prospects don’t pan out. As for the Mariners, I’d like it a lot more if they were a better team - they had a negative run differential last year (indicating that they weren’t nearly as good as their 88 wins suggest), and the Angels certainly project to win in the mid-90s again barring any injury. Not to mention that there will be at least 2-3 also-rans in the East and Central fighting it out in the mid-90s for the wild card. Even with this deal I can’t see Seattle with more than a 25% chance of making the playoffs next year - though if they do, watch out, as we’ve seen what teams can do with two top pitchers even if there isn’t much else around.

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The Mariners play 3 games in Shea Stadium in June. If it lined up that way, how great would Bedard vs Santana and Martinez vs Martinez be? I’ve long wanted to see Ichiro play live, I would try and attend at least one of those games

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[QUOTE=Kiros]
Oh, they absolutely did. The Twins basically dumped Santana. As to why? Well, the two big/obvious reasons.

Bedard is under (reasonable) contract for two years vs. Santana’s one remaining (and even that one remaining year got bumped up to 20mm by the extension).

Santana had a complete no-trade clause, and as such had to approve any potential deal. He basically restricted the potential destinations to “East Coast teams that can afford to give me a contract near $150mm”. Which is why all we really heard about were those three teams bidding.

I was of sort of the same opinion for a while, but I did see this game in person last summer on a trip back to Baltimore. He was pretty much exactly as dominating as it looks like in the box score - it wasn’t on the level of some of the Pedro games that I saw back when he was with Boston, but it was definite ace material.

Plus, I mean, you can’t argue with the stats, especially with the competition that he’s been pitching against, and in that hitter’s park. Just a matter of how healthy he can stay.

As for the trade itself, I like it more from the O’s standpoint. They aren’t going to need Bedard for the next two years, they weren’t going to keep him, and Jones alone will be well worth it even if the other prospects don’t pan out. As for the Mariners, I’d like it a lot more if they were a better team - they had a negative run differential last year (indicating that they weren’t nearly as good as their 88 wins suggest), and the Angels certainly project to win in the mid-90s again barring any injury. Not to mention that there will be at least 2-3 also-rans in the East and Central fighting it out in the mid-90s for the wild card. Even with this deal I can’t see Seattle with more than a 25% chance of making the playoffs next year - though if they do, watch out, as we’ve seen what teams can do with two top pitchers even if there isn’t much else around.
[/QUOTE]

The thing is that I’ve been following him for a few years. Fantasy baseball and all that. I was aware of his existence, I think, 3 years ago. Then he missed two years ago, and he just turned into a beast. Really, at WORST, I think he’s a rotation pitcher, and I think he may have a high ceiling. I really just need to watch him pitch more, it seems.

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[QUOTE=Ichbin Dubist]
Martinez vs Martinez
[/QUOTE]

Who? There’s no Martinez on the M’s 40-man roster. Did you mean Hernandez?

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Bedard’s peripheral stats last year were quite something; 221 strikeouts in 182 innings is a tremendous ratio that suggests an ability to really dominate games. The issue with Bedard is whether he can stay healthy and pitch a full starter’s season, which he has never done. He tends to tire late in games and doesn’t do well with high pitch counts. His injuries have been related to a variety of muscle strains, which suggests that he is prone to uneven mechanics when fatigued. When he’s feeling good and fresh, he controls the strike zone with devastating breaking balls and good heat, but when he gets tired his release points tends to fly, he gets up in the zone, the pitch count rises, and he’s toast by the sixth inning.

I would be concerned that he’s never pitched 200 innings. (Prior to 2006 I don’t think he had ever pitched 150 in a season at any level.) With pitchers, it’s all about health. On a positive note, though, he pitched better LATE in the year last year, so maybe he’s learned his niche.

As to whether this makes Seattle a contender, I am a bit skeptical, even if Bedard pitches well. Seattle was 88-74 last year but they were extremely lucky, easily the luckiest team in the AL; they actually allowed more runs than they scored, and so in terms of how they’ll do in 2008, it’s really best to think of them as a 79-83 team in 2007. Erik Bedard certainly isn’t going to improve anyone’s record by eleven wins, though I guess replacing Jeff Weaver is potentially more of an improvement than some teams would get.

He certainly can’t hurt. Seattle has big gaps in the rotation to fill, so Bedard is a logical acquisition.

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[QUOTE=RickJay]
they actually allowed more runs than they scored

snip

Jeff Weaver
[/QUOTE]

I think the second part here goes a long way toward explaining the first. The Mariners won an awful lot of close games, but many of Weaver’s losses were utter blowouts. Hargrove would end up pulling him in the 2nd or 3rd inning, with the M’s already 12 runs behind. With the bullpen being forced to throw 6-7+ innings almost every time Weaver started, they got worn out very early in the season and gave up a bunch of runs of their own.

In any given five-game stretch, they might have achieved four wins with scores like 2-1, 3-1, 4-2, and 1-0, but a fifth-game loss of 15-2 completely skews the RA:RS ratio, which looks funny compared to the .800 winning % over those five games.

With Weaver gone, we hopefully won’t be seeing that kind of crap again. I predict new pitching coach Mel Stottlemyre is going to be a big help in that area as well.

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[QUOTE=RickJay]
With pitchers, it’s all about health.
[/QUOTE]

I think you hit the nail on the head there. It does always boil down to whether a pitcher can keep himself on the mound. The key may be if Seattle’s pitching coach can get Bedard to keep his pitch count down, learn to economize his pitches and keep down the wear and tear on his arm. It might be a good sign for Seattle if Bedard’s (now impressive) strikeout numbers go down, but instead he gets himself deeper into games, only go for the strikeout when he needs it. He certainly can’t be afraid to pitch to contact in Safeco (though the stats seem to indicate he’s more of a ground ball pitcher). I guess the value of the trade will depend on how Bedard approaches his job–keep trying to mow them all down, or stay in the game and get the wins.