etiquette question re: gifts

Let’s take this (hypothetical) situation.

A friend of mine, Xavier, has told me “I’ll be sending you a present in the mail soon.” Time goes by and nothing shows up. Possibilities are[list=1][li]The gift was lost in the mail (unlikely, USPS is pretty reliable.)[/li][li]Xavier never got around to sending me the present.[/li][li]Xavier was lying.[/list=1][/li]
What do I do? In the event that the first possibility is the correct one, then Xavier will be hurt that I didn’t acknowledge his gift. On the other hand, if I call Xavier to ask “what happened to my present?” I may seem rude or mercenary. If I send some of my friends to beat Xavier up I risk legal repercussions. What should I do?

As someone who is going to get around to sending my friend a wedding gift any day now (she was married a year ago), I think you should just assume it’s #2. Send him a letter or something, but don’t mention the gift.

I’d bet on #2. If he sent it, HE will be wondering what the heck happened. He bought it, so he has more reason to ask YOU about it than vice versa. I wouldn’t say anything.