Explain the stateside party discrepancy

Despite the fact that we see a Democratic win for for the presidency, we still see Republicans gaining a majority elsewhere. I can understand the senate, since it gives the states unfair advantage, but a majority in the house doesn’t make sense. But even weirder are states like Massachusetts which are Dem but have had Rep governors, and NJ which is Dem but has a Rep governor.

And the various states which lean a certain way but which have state internal reps with a majority leaning the other way.

What’s the rationale?

Democrats are actually likely to keep the Senate. For the House, it will be some combination of ticket splitting and district boundaries. While most Americans are partisan voters (even if they say they’re not), the individual candidates still do matter.

In my county, Barack Obama got 42% of the vote and the Democratic candidate for the Senate got 41%, but the Democratic candidate for the House only got 34%. The district is also gerrymandered all to hell, but a substantial number of people voted for Barack Obama and a Republican House candidate.

Candidates typically come from their home states and reflect their electorates.

Let me give a couple examples.

The Massachusetts Republican Party nominated Scott Brown for Senate in the past two elections. In most other states, Scott Brown would not have been considered for a Republican nomination. He’s too liberal. A typical Republican by national standards, however, would be cut to ribbons in Massachusetts and lose by dozens of points.

The West Virginia Democratic Party nominated Joe Manchin for Senate. In most other states, Joe Manchin would not have any chance of winning a Democratic nomination. However, in West Virginia, an ordinary Democrat would have a very tough time winning the general election.

Local politics are not national politics. In a state which is, say, solidly Republican in the Presidential election, the local Democrats will be far enough right that they can still compete (and vice-versa in solidly Democratic states). A Democrat from Utah or Oklahoma will be significantly to the right of a Republican from California or New York.

Out of curiosity, has anyone ever analyzed what the House of Represetatives would look like without gerrymandering? It would be interesting to know.