Ever since 2014, when Republicans won the Senate by defeating** red-state Democrats like Kay Hagan (NC), Mark Pryor (AR), Mary Landrieu (LA), Mark Begich (AK), then again in 2018 when Heidi Heitkamp (ND), Claire McCaskill (MO), Joe Donnelly (IN) and Bill Nelson (FL)** lost, a lot of liberal commentators and other say that the Senate is favored towards rural and lesser populated red areas.
Some want to abolish the Senate; saying that it is unfair.
I don’t think so.
The fact is that Democrats didn’t run good campaigns in 2014, 2016, and 2018 in the Senate.
McCaskill, Heitkamp and Donnelly are centrist Democrats, didn’t lose because of that, because those states have conservative Democrats. They lost because Republicans are favored there; it means Democrats should be competitive there; not concede it to the GOP.
You can’t run an Elizabeth Warren or a Bernie Sanders in WV, MO and win.
Is class 2 senate has a lot of room for party switching the last 2 election cycles. In 2014 the GOP picked up 9 seats, and in 2008 the democrats picked up 8 seats.
I haven’t been following so I don’t know what the good swing seats are. But we only need 3 this election cycle to win the senate if the democrats also win the presidency.
Of course, winning the senate doesn’t mean much if you can’t get the votes together to pass anything.
Democrats need to pickup AZ, CO, IA, ME, SC, both GA seats or TX, KY, KS, MS to win the Senate.
I can see Democrats falling short of the 4 by picking up AZ (McSally), CO (Gardner), ME (Collins) or maybe GA (Perdue and Isakson’s seat), and TX (Cornyn)
But Democrats want to pick up McSally, Gardner and Collins’ seat.
Republicans want to pick up MI (Peters), AL (Jones) and maybe NH (Shaheen)
Doug Jones, a red-state Democrat is the most vulnerable Democrat in 2020. I like him, he is better than the wackos the GOP put up in Alabama.
Red state Democrats and blue state Republicans can win, but under right circumstances.
Part of the problem with the red state Democrats is that the loud activists scream every time that one of the more conservative Democrats casts a vote they don’t like. ‘Primary Joe Manchin’ DINO!!! is common on the liberal blogs and Twitter. Yes, Manchin voted for Kavanaugh, but he was getting confirmed anyway.
There simply aren’t enough states that are going to send a Bernie Sanders and an Elizabeth Warren to the Senate from their state.
It’s very easy to get on Twitter from the dorm room at some liberal arts college and rant about DINOs, it’s quite another to be a Senator from a state that overwhelmingly voted Trump.
So did anyone actually primary Joe Manchin? Um, no. So, other than you having to deal with some people on Twitter disagreeing with you, how is this a problem?
This is the rift between moderates and progressives.
The far left did not turn out for McCaskill, Donnelly, Nelson just because they distanced from the national D brand.
Same thing will happen two weeks from now, when Jim Hood (MS), Andy Beshear (KY) and Gov. John Bel Edwards (LA) probably lose in deep-red country because they are not purist enough.
Blue state Republicans elected Baker, Christie and Pataki despite their distance from the R brand of Gingrich, Palin and Helms.
Along the same lines as Manchin’s primary challenge, the Arizona dems progressive caucus pursued a censure motion against Sinema last month. Like Manchin’s primary challenge, it failed.
Given that the censure vote was specifically regarding votes to confirm Bernhardt, Barr, and opposing net neutrality, I’d say it’s a pretty nice reminder that shitty behavior will be called out.
Even in those red states, there are plenty of far left liberals in places like Miami, St. Louis, and Indianapolis. I think those folks are less likely to turn out for a moderate just left of center Democrat.