Factors in handicapping the democratic race to the White House post Super Tuesday.

[QUOTE=brickbacon]
I don’t think you can donate either.
[/QUOTE]
Could he legally donate via his wife? “Honey, let’s send Obama $25 from the joint checking account”?

[QUOTE=Richard Parker]
It’s inexplicable for several reasons. First, historically the superdelegates rally behind whomever wins more pledged delegates. Second, CNN’s count isn’t a count of endorsements, it’s an informal count that makes assumptions about superdelegates. And third, and most importantly, it is entirely disingenuous to include that count in the Super Tuesday results. They have nothing to do with Super Tuesday!

Obviously superdelegates matter. In the discussion of who is winning right now, I think it is entirely appropriate for Clinton to discuss her *presumptive *lead there. But it is entirely inappropriate to discuss them in the context of who has won the primary elections so far.
[/QUOTE]

Also, keep in mind that about 457 superdelegates remain unassigned. The race for them has barely begun.

So long as he’s a legal permanent resident, he can donate. Here are the requirements:

[QUOTE=Jophiel]
Could he legally donate via his wife? “Honey, let’s send Obama $25 from the joint checking account”?
[/QUOTE]

Yes I believe he can.

Further to points up thread - Obama’s Strategists are some savvy folk, and they are not going to steer him the wrong way. Hilary knows Obama and she are running neck and neck, he is not on her heels, but running along side of her. They are both going to carry a lot of punch in the next several weeks. We’ll see how much of a nail biter it’s going to be but I’m not convinced Hilary is going to cinch the nom. And I don’t compare Dean to Obama - not at all. Obama’s plateform is far more grounded amongst other things.

Well, my response was eaten when it timed out during my reply. Let’s take it on faith that I posted almost exactly what Shayna has above.

I’m a legal permanent resident, btw.

[QUOTE=Aguecheek]

Well, my response was eaten when it timed out during my reply. Let’s take it on faith that I posted almost exactly what Shayna has above.

I’m a legal permanent resident, btw.
[/QUOTE]
I believe you! :slight_smile:

If you haven’t already joined at Obama’s website, I’d highly recommend you do. Then start reading through the threads and you’ll find where people are joining together to match donations and participate in each others fund raising campaigns. It’s quite inspiring! Someone will post that they changed their registration so they could vote for Obama, and 3 people will jump in and donate $10 or $20 as a way of thanking them.

One person’s birthday is the 13th, so in honor of him winning 13 states to Hillary’s 8, she donated $13.08, and other people took the challenge and made similar donations. One guy has a campaign going to try to raise $30,100.00, in honor of the woman who sent Obama $3.01 plus a prayer because that was all she could afford on her fixed income. So far he’s raised over $3,000.00, all in small donations.

That’s how Obama is winning the fund raising race against Hillary. These people are energized!

[QUOTE=Jophiel]
Could he legally donate via his wife? “Honey, let’s send Obama $25 from the joint checking account”?
[/QUOTE]

:eek: Remember that whole Bill Clinton-Al Gore-Chinese fundraising scandal of 1996? Very loosely speaking, that was an instance of non-eligible donors giving money to an eligible donor and that person writing a check.

If you cannot donate to a political campaign, you cannot funnel money through a legal donor. It is illegal, period. If one’s wife wants to use the joint account to make a donation, fine, but non-eligible donors cannot solicit campaign contributions, either directly or indirectly.

The rules.

[QUOTE=Aguecheek]
She mailed in her vote yesterday, but will not tell me who it was for (as is perfectly her prerogative).
[/QUOTE]

Please, correct me if I’m wrong, but I don’t think the mailed vote counts for squat. I know, this is really weird, but the local news (Spokane, even though we’re 5 hours away, is “local” for us) reported awhile back that WA has both primaries and caucuses for the Democratic party. But only the caucuses count (see top of p.3, WA 2008 Primary FAQ, pdf from WA Secretary of State primary webpage):

Although I support Obama, I’m not sure whether I’ll be attending a/the caucus. In fact, I’m not even sure what going to a caucus entails…I need to look into it.

[QUOTE=Digital Stimulus]
The Democratic Party has never used the results of the primary to allocate delegates. The State Democratic Party will only use caucuses to allocate delegates in 2008.
[/QUOTE]
Oh, for pity’s sake. This state’s got the most messed-up system in the whole Union. Thanks for the heads up; I’m going to let her know.

Shayna, I’ll give it a thought!

[QUOTE=Digital Stimulus]
Please, correct me if I’m wrong, but I don’t think the mailed vote counts for squat. I know, this is really weird, but the local news (Spokane, even though we’re 5 hours away, is “local” for us) reported awhile back that WA has both primaries and caucuses for the Democratic party. But only the caucuses count (see top of p.3, WA 2008 Primary FAQ, pdf from WA Secretary of State primary webpage):

Although I support Obama, I’m not sure whether I’ll be attending a/the caucus. In fact, I’m not even sure what going to a caucus entails…I need to look into it.
[/QUOTE]

It entails going into a big room with [hopefully] a lot of like minded folk, then moving to an area in that room for either Obama or Hilary. Which ever side has the most people wins. It’s fun - you should try it! :smiley: No Matter who you are supporting it’s the right thing to do when your state has this type of system. If we really want some change in the country away from old party crapola - caucusing for Obama is the only way to get it done.

Phlosphr’s relatives in WA are caucusing for Obama - and no it’s not because I called them incessently and made them go…seriously! :smiley:

[QUOTE=Shayna]
But do not despair. Everything about last night was a rousing success!
[/QUOTE]

I was just hoping for more. I wanted to drive a stake of garlic through her heart, or dump a pail of water on her and watch the wickedness melt away. The good news is she’s out of home states and her best states are now in the rear view mirror. There are some positives- he has a better money supply and does better in states that he has the time to campaign in. What could help him more than anything would be McCain wrapping up the elephant race. Independents and crossover Republicans would then be free to come lend a hand for Obama. I have hope, less than after Iowa, more than after New Hampshire, and less than after South Carolina. I want the roller coaster ride to end.

[QUOTE=BobLibDem]
<snip> I want the roller coaster ride to end.
[/QUOTE]

You and me both! My Blood Pressure was crazy last night…my damn left eyebrow kept twitching too! :smiley: This stress sucks!

A thought that has crossed my head from time to time is the candidates health. Hasn’t Hillary fainted a few times on camera? I wonder how she is faring this election?

[QUOTE=Phlosphr]
Hasn’t Hillary fainted a few times on camera? I wonder how she is faring this election?
[/QUOTE]

?? First I heard of that! ?? Except for McCain’s age, I don’t think any of the candidates have any major issues. Certainly there isn’t a Cheney among them.

Just wondering. I was thinking of when she fainted in 05’. Nothing recent. I would think they all go through some sort of physical, as I am stressed just watching, I couldn’t imagine actually doing what these folks do.

My buddy in Denver, who is Belgian, so can’t vote, was imploring me to vote for Hillary. I texted back that I am firmly an Obama supporter. He said he would leave the US if Obama became President and he preferred McCain to Obama. He is a medical researcher and his whole thing is that he bleives Hillary will be better in making funding available for research. It was actually kind of humorous.

I told him to stop watching CNN and to watch something else, as he was working himself into a tizzy.

[QUOTE=Ravenman]
:eek: Remember that whole Bill Clinton-Al Gore-Chinese fundraising scandal of 1996? Very loosely speaking, that was an instance of non-eligible donors giving money to an eligible donor and that person writing a check.
[/QUOTE]
I remember. And, more recently, the Clinton/Hsu story. But I didn’t know if the rules were different for married couples, which is why I asked.

Of course, it’s a moot point in regards to Aguecheek.

CNN currently lists Clinton at 618 total pledged delegates and Obama at 614. With superdelegates they show Clinton at 811 total and Obama at 720.

RealClearPolitics: Clinton 900 Obama 824
MSNBC: Obama 838, Clinton 834
CNN: Clinton 812, Obama 720
CBS: Clinton 974, Obama 905

We’re going to heve to bring back that bug-eyed dude from the 2000 Florida recount to tally up the delegates.

[QUOTE=Aguecheek]

Shayna, I’ll give it a thought!
[/QUOTE]
Cool! Here’s the profile of one of the guys I was talking about above. He’s a registered Republican from Ohio (what will be an important state for Obama coming up!), who is working hard to see Obama not only win the nomination, but the Presidency, as well. He, like many, many others whose posts I’ve been reading, has stepped across party lines for the betterment of our nation, not just a political party. His goal was to raise $500, and he’s $45 away from that goal, all having come from very small donations.
[QUOTE=colonial82]
http://my.barackobama.com/page/community/post/samgrahamfelsen/C7YV

I am a registered Republican who has wanted to vote for Obama since his 2004 speech and I fully support him now. I believe and have believed that he is the only one for this country at THIS TIME. We, as a country, need him NOW. We can not wait, if we wait until he is ‘seasoned’, the damage might have already been done. I love that he doesn’t have ‘Washington experience’, that helps make him so great since he is not corrupted. I love how he can inspire people and always tell the truth. I love how he is not afraid to work with Republicans because we are all Americans and there are good and bad Republicans and Democrats. He will be a President that is a President of the WHOLE country, not just one party.

<snip>

My dream is to go to the Denver Convention and represent Obama for people like me (Republicans for Obama), but I am not sure that is possible since I am a registered Republican.
[/quote]
How cool is that?

So both will spin this but pretty much it leaves them both standing on good footing. Virtually tied for pledged delegates and popular vote. On to the handicapping -

Obama will win most of the next series but not all. Since he is expected to win most of those HRC will spin keeping those competititve as a victory of sorts. Obama will outspend. HRC will bank on diminished expectations in the next states and on firewalls in Texas, etc. Neither will directly go negative but some proxies will. Both will try to show their chops in debates. Obama has to show her up there to pull away.

Superdelegates will keeping fingers anxiously stuck up in the wind. Edwards will keep trying to get offers for support but no one will promise him anything. Richardson lost his chance for significance.

Ohio will be it. If Obama will try to take her on there. If he pulls that out from under her then superdelegates will start falling to him. If she stays tight in the other states and takes both Texas and Ohio then they’ll fall to her side.