Fantasy Baseball 2011

Well never mind about trade 1, the guy came to his senses and decided he didn’t like Fielder as much as he thought.

Not a chance. Fielder for Lincecum straight up is robbery for whoever gets Lincecum in that deal.

Fat Bartolo seems like he’s going to put up decent numbers - but I’d think there has to be someone just as good in free agency. How many spot starters are available on any given day?

Two starters, three general, two RP. 13 team league. I have to wait 24 hours from the time I pick up a player to the time I can start him.

People available in FA right now,

(top 5 in current rankings)
Kevin Correia
Dustin Moseley
Chris Young
Phil Humber
Tom Gorzelanny

Top 5 by k rate
Edinson Volquez
Travis Wood
Ryan Dempster
Jake Arrieta
Mike Leake
Derrick Holland

Two or three of my leagues have a TON of available assets in free agency, and I’m attempting to overpay for a top-tier upgrade at a position, so I can open up roster spots to pick some folks up.

Example:

Russell Martin
Adam Dunn
Ryan Raburn
David Wright
Asdrubal Cabrera
Carl Crawford
Andrew McCutchen
Ichiro Suzuki
Johnny Gomes
Aramis Ramirez
Chase Utley (DL)

Trevor Cahill
Ricky Romero
Brian Wilson
Huston Street
Brandon Lyon
Fransisco Liriano
Kyle Farnsworth
Alexei Ogando
Roy Oswalt
Justin Masterson
Kyle Lohse

Now, I’d like to package some folks together for a top-tier dude. I have a bevy of pitching to trade. I’m completely open to trading my closers, because there are some saves to find on the waiver wire, and because I’m amenable to abandoning it as a scoring category. I can find NO takers.

Trades I have out there (all with the attached message “I want Player X. Name your price.”):
Cabrera, Ramirez, and Suzuki with Romero and Ogando for Morneau, Elvis Andrus, and Ryan Braun

Raburn, Suzuki, Romero, Masterson, and Lohse for Kinsler, Carlos Gonzalez, and Delmon Young.

Cabrera, Suzuki, Masterson, and Lohse for Alexei Ramirez and Evan Longoria
I hate leagues that aren’t full of people I know.

Lot of talent there, especially in the second group. Colon isn’t going to offer much more (if any) than that group.

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[A whole bunch of complicated trades]
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I think you need to simplify it. Big multi-player deals are hard to evaluate, and initial reactions are usually “he knows something I don’t, and is trying to pull something over on me”. I also think you’re over-valuing your players in those trades - I really wouldn’t consider any of those to be overpaying for anything. If you want Longoria, you’re going to have to offer Wright and a pitcher (start with Liriano and see if his no-no glamours anyone into pulling the trigger, but be willing to give up Oswalt). For Braun, you’ll have to package Ichiro or Crawford with someone.

And that’s fine by me. I’d just like to see a counter proposal from them. I’d pretty much be fine with those.

12 team 5x5 roto keeper league.

Trade proposal sent to me.

I trade Mat Latos and Michael Young for Ike Davis and Kyle McClellan.

I currently have Todd Helton, Aubrey Huff, and Michael Cuddyer with 1b eligibility so I’m not getting much out of them. We use a 1b/3b and and 2b/ss positions in this league.I’ve been using Young and Aramis Ramirez in my 3b and 1b/3b slots.

Latos is beginning to make me very nervous. I’ve been hovering between 7th and 10th place in this league.

Look at Latos’s numbers in April last year. Then look at them from May-August and walk away from the computer.

I’m not a big fan when people don’t counter either. But I will admit that I’m much less likely to offer a counter-proposal when the initial one was really unbalanced or seemed hinky in any way. The other guy may think you poisoned the well a bit.

Or he’s just really busy. I had three extremely lopsided trade proposals out to one owner last week (I was willing to give up a TON of hitting for some pitching), and was perplexed he wasn’t biting. Turns out he was just busy. I snagged David Price for Longoria just in time for his start today.

I hate that I feel like I still don’t know what I am doing all that well. I may have just seriously screwed up. Tell me what you think.

I need a top flight pitcher pretty badly so I made a trade offer for Dan Haren offering A-Rod. I am dead last in Strike Outs and middle of the pack in wins and ERA, but have lots and lots of power. I have been actually watching A-Rod and I think he is overvalued right now, and a swap for him and Haren 1-1 would be a win for me, but I don’t have a replacement at 3B so I am asking for Ryan Roberts in return.

In return I am giving up Asdrubal Cabrera and Kyle Lohse. I know I am overpaying. That isn’t the problem I have necessarily. I set out to overpay a bit so that there wouldn’t be a lot of back and forth. I don’t believe in Lohse and I think I rode him to his peak. His last game was a lot more like what he has shown in seasons past, and I want to get rid of him while the getting is good. Carbrera on the other hand, is good, but I have a good SS on my team already in Eric Aybar who is doing better than his ranking indicates due to his smaller PA’s. Also, he steals which is another category I need. What I don’t really need is power and I think Cabrera has also peaked. I am leading in runs and RBI and 3rd in HR’s. I also need bench space as I have Logan Morrison about to come off the DL and Ike Davis should also be coming off in about two weeks and I don’t want to be stuck having to drop someone productive.

So, I am overpaying by dealing a player I don’t want anymore and a player I can’t really use in order to get Dan Haren. Am I being foolish? Did I mess up in my calculations, because the way the offer was responded to I think I, at the very least, looked like an idiot. I am probably not getting enough back in return right? The deal was already proposed and the guy emailed me saying he would accept later in the evening. And now I am having regrets, but it seems like a dick move to go back and ask for more now so that isn’t my problem. I guess I just want to know where I went off track, if I did in fact go off track.

What you should have done is offer A-Rod for Haren and Roberts. You’re overpaying a little, but that’s no big deal. If he counters with A-Rod for Haren straight up, then you say you need a 3B, and throw in Lohse. I think adding Cabrera to the mix was a little foolish, but not detrimental. I understand not wanting to go back and forth, but not with a deal where you’re already going to overpay.

In a trade for top tier players I wouldn’t lose sleep on a throw in. I also wouldn’t feel too bad if you feel the need to rescind the offer. He could have already accepted, but didn’t

Better check your lineups this morning. Two rainouts already with SF at Cubs and KC at Detroit. Lincecum was scheduled to pitch for SF so may have to make a quick lineup change.

Ok, so before I go overpaying again, would Tim Hudson and Chris Young for Matt Kemp be overpaying? The person who has Kemp is in last place in ERA and WHIP. But first place in HR and Steals.

I could use the steals and otherwise Young and Kemp have been putting up similar numbers. I don’t need the ERA and WHIP help right now, but would giving up Hudson be mortgaging the future of my team?

My pitching staff currently has:

Dan Haren
Clayton Kershaw
Tim Hudson
Homer Baily
Wandy Rodriguez
Hiroki Kuroda
Drew Storen
Jordan Walden
Aaron Crow

Which is one starter too many, I am projected to be 80 innings over at the end of the season. Kuroda would be my other option, but I am thinking I don’t need to have 2 inning eaters on my staff anymore, and Hudson has the better name even though he and Kuroda are doing about the same.

Also, thanks for helping me figure this stuff out. I am starting to get the hang of the whole perceived value vs. actual value of players I think.

Start out with offering Bailey. He’s doing very well right now, so he’d still be improving his pitching.

His Pujols, Adam Jones, and C.J. Wilson for my Ryan Howard, Ellsbury, and Buchholz. Take the plunge?

Le bump.

OK, I’ll give it a shot.

I own Adam Jones and he is doing better than his raw numbers indicate. He got off to a bad start, but has been great for a little bit now. Pujols, for all that people are saying how bad he is, isn’t far off his numbers (except for average) from last year, and I think he is a steal right now if someone is willing to deal him. I like Wilson and Buckholz about evenly for the season personally. Maybe I like Buckholz a little better but I think it’s probably a wash.

So you win with Howard for Pujols easily. I think Jones is a win for you too, but it’s closer and a bit sneaky since it probably looks like a loss, and the pitching is a wash. Do it.

That’s where I was leaning well, but I didn’t like giving up on Ellsbury. Also, the first draft of this trade had Melky Cabrera instead of Ellsbury, which I couldn’t get to in time to accept.