Fantasy Baseball players - help out a novice re trades

The Game Room
1

I’ve played Fantasy Football before, but this is the first time i’ve dipped my toe in the water of Fantasy Baseball, and i must admit i’m really liking it. I’m playing in a Yahoo rotisserie league, with 13 teams.

I’ve had to make some changes and additions to my roster since the start of the year, due to some injuries, but i’ve never been involved in any trades with other teams. My current roster is as follows:

Position Players

C Kurt Suzuki (OAK - C)
1B Albert Pujols (STL - 1B)
2B Brandon Phillips (CIN - 2B)
3B Mike Lowell (BOS - 3B)
SS Troy Tulowitzki (COL - SS)
LF Carlos Lee (HOU - LF)
CF Matt Kemp (LAD - CF,RF)
RF Hunter Pence (HOU - RF)
Util Mike Cameron (MIL - CF)

BN Asdrubal Cabrera (CLE - 2B,SS)
BN Ian Stewart (COL - 2B,3B)

DL Ryan Doumit (PIT - C)
DL Edwin Encarnacion (CIN - 3B)
Pitchers

SP Jake Peavy (SD)
SP Rich Harden (CHC)
SP Brett Myers (PHI)
SP Gil Meche (KC)
SP Jered Weaver(LAA)
RP Frank Francisco (TEX)
RP Aaron Heilman (CHC)
RP George Sherrill (BAL)
RP Ramon Ramirez (BOS)
P Tim Wakefield (BOS)

For those unfamiliar with Yahoo Fantasy Baseball, the position players that have more than one position after their club can be played at either or those positions. So, for example, i could play Matt Kemp at CF and Hunter Pence in RF, or move Kemp to RF and put Mike Cameron at CF. Similarly, Cabrera can play 2B or SS, replacing Phillips or Tulowitzki on any given day.

This team has been hovering between 2nd and 7th place in the league, and is currently in 6th place.

Anyway, as i said, i’ve never been involved in a trade before, and just this evening i received a trade proposal from one of the other players in the league. He wants to give me B.J. Upton (TB - CF) and Clayton Kershaw (LAD - SP), and wants me to give up Hunter Pence (RF) and Brett Myers (SP).

The reason i’m a little uncertain is that i can really see absolutely no upside for me in this trade, and was wondering whether there’s something i’ve missed, or some aspect of Fantasy Baseball that i’m overlooking, because my first inclination is to reject it outright.

Here are the 2009 numbers for all four players involved in the trade:



Position Players

Player	H/AB	R	H	HR	RBI	BB	AVG	OBP	SLG	NSB

Upton	9/57	9	9	0	1	12	.158	.304	.193	5

Pence	22/78	8	22	4	10	8	.282	.341	.474	3
Pitchers

Player	IP	W	CG	SV	K	HLD	ERA	WHIP	K/BB	QS

Kershaw	21.0	0	0	0	26	0	7.29	1.43	2.36	1

Myers	31.2	1	0	0	26	0	4.83	1.55	1.73	3

As you can see, right now my guy, Pence, is hitting far better than Upton. Upton has an edge in walks and net stolen bases, but that’s about it. His actual hitting has been awful this year. Pence, on the other hand, is doing fine, and is right around his projected numbers.

As for the pitchers, again i really don’t see what Kershaw gives me. His WHIP is a little better than Myers’, which suggests that maybe his high ERA is a bit unlucky, and he also has a better K/BB rate than Myers. But really, i think it’s a push. While Myers only has one Win, he has 3 Quality Starts, which is an important counting category in the league.

Now i realize that current form isn’t everything, and that part of the value in trades is trying to get a guy who adds something to your team, and who might improve on his current numbers. The thing is, i can’t even see much upside for the future.

Baseball Prospectus projects identical VORP (28.6) for Upton and Pence this year, and in the stats actually counted by Yahoo, the two players pretty much split the categories; Pence is projected better in AVG, SLG, HR, and RBI, while Upton is projected higher in OBP, Runs, and SB. Given that i already have two CF candidates on my team (Kemp and Cameron), both of whom are hitting like crazy to start the season, i see no reason to trade for Upton.

As for the pitchers, my guy is not only performing better right now, but Baseball Prospectus predicts a better overall season for him. Projected VORP for Myers is 31.0, while for Kershaw it’s 25.6. Myers is also predicted to have a better ERA, better WHIP, better K/BB, and to be ahead of Kershaw in the “count” stats like Wins and Ks. Again, i just can’t see a reason to make the trade.

The main area where my own team has been falling down is in the middle infield. 2B Phillips is having a diabolically bad start, although i’m sure he will rebound at some stage. And SS Tulowitzki has only managed to keep up a decent OBP by drawing 11 walks. Anyway, i doubt that the guy proposing the trade is interested in giving up 2B Ian Kinsler, who has been crushing the ball all year, or even SS Miguel Tejada, who has had a good start to the season.

Anyway, that’s all pretty rambling and incoherent. I just wanted to get some opinions because, to be quite truthful, i’m not sure why the guy even made the trade offer in the first place.

2

Didn’t cost him anything to make the offer. His guys are ranked higher by Yahoo, he’s getting nervous about their actual performance, and he wants to flip them for somebody who’s performing better.

3

  1. People in fantasy baseball rarely make trade offers based on what is good for the other team. Mostly they focus on their own needs. It is nice when they keep your needs in mind, but usually they don’t. You can counter with something more to your liking. To me this actually a pretty good first offer.

  2. You are focusing way too much on 1 month of data. The key to fantasy baseball is the same as anything else, buy low and sell high. You want the players who are underperforming their potential. Kershaw and Upton make excellent targets.

  3. VORP doesn’t equal fantasy value. And not all category differences are the same either. Steals tend to be the hardest offensive category to get, almost every team will have more hr than sbs for example. If you can get +25 extra sbs (net might be a little lower) that is worth losing other numbers.

  4. Oh and I don’t see how you say there is no upside. These are two of the most talented young players in the game. If Upton can match his post season power he can hit 25 hr and steal 40 bases. Kershaw could strike out over 200.
    Maybe they won’t do that, but fantasy is also about taking risk. You don’t want to finish 6th, you rather have a 50% chance of winning and a 50% of finishing last.

Not saying you should do the offer, but I’d at least keep these things in mind.

4

I’d do the offer. Your team is pretty weak in speed, and the power Pence might provide through the rest of the season is more than made up for with the rest of your team. Upton provides 2nd round ability, and his owner is panicking at his 20th round performance.

I’m a believer in Myers this year, but I think Kershaw will perform as good, if not better. He certainly has more upside. Plus - Harden, Peavy and Weaver are going to alleviate any risk you take on there.

And work on upgrading SS and/or RP. Most teams in a 12-team league will have 3 closers (or 2 if they went for them early). Heilman has a chance, since Marmol is doing so poorly (and I don’t trust Gregg). I wouldn’t trade for a closer, but keep an eye on available players (the situations in Colorado and Toronto are shaky).

5

Oh, and great draft. Doumit going down certainly hurts - otherwise I’d say you’re solid across the board (minus SBs).

6

Thanks for the advice, folks. Some comments:

Sure, but that’s why i made the point about this year’s performance, and also about BP’s projections.

Surely, as a general principle, if i have a choice between two guys who are forecast to have very similar seasons, and one if currently hitting at his potential while the other is hitting awfully, it makes sense to take the first guy?

I know VORP doesn’t equal fantasy value, which is why i broke down the Upton/Pence comparisons in the rate and count categories.

I also recognize that, due to the way fantasy stats are valued, some extra SBs can be worth a lot to a team, but i also think your bracketed comment about net steals is important here. I don’t have a whole lot of guys known for stealing a lot of bases on my team, but the guys i do have (so far at least) tend to be careful base-stealers. They don’t get caught very often. I’m currently running second in my league in net stolen bases.

But, having just taken me to task for focusing too closely on 1 month of stats, how can you now recommend Upton’s power based on an 11-game streak of 7 home runs in last year’s playoffs?

Upton hit 9 homers in the whole regular season last year. Even in 2007, when he showed more power, he hit 24, which is 1 less than Pence hit last year. You might be right that he could hit 25 this year, but so could Pence (BP forecasts 23 homers from Pence, 15 from Upton), and Pence is already hitting well.

I’m not discounting your advice, because i tend to agree that Upton should heat up, and i like the idea of getting some steals. I just wonder how much Upton adds, even if he gets out of his slump and performs to expectations.

Fair enough. After your post, and Munch’s, i’m leaning towards taking it.

It’s certainly true that, given Kemp and Cameron’s performance, i could afford to leave Upton on the bench for a little while until he starts getting some hits.

My main concern here is that i currently have good balance in the outfield, with 2 RFs (Pence and Kemp) and 2 CFs (Kemp and Cameron). That means that if any of those three players fall off, i still have two guys for two positions. With Upton replacing Pence, i’ll have 3 CFs (Cameron, Kemp, and Upton), and 1 RF (Kemp), meaning that i have to play Kemp, and i have to play either Cameron or Upton every day.

I’m not really worried about Kemp; he’s a stud, and should continue to hit all year. But Cameron is playing well above his weight right now, and is likely to cool off, while Upton is currently awful.

Fair enough, although Peavy has started pretty poorly. He should be back on track soon, though.

Absolutely. I’ve been looking for a closer, because Sherrill just isn’t getting it done for Baltimore, and even if he were, the Orioles aren’t likely to give him too many save opportunities.

As for Heilman, he was doing OK until last night, when he came in during the 10th inning and gave up 6 runs!

Thanks.

Because it was my first fantasy attempt, i contemplated letting the Yahoo computer pick automatically, but then figured that the whole thing becomes pointless if you don’t have some input yourself, so i picked based on my own preferences, with help from Baseball Prospectus’s fantasy recommendations.

Also, i had first pick in our draft, and if i had let Yahoo make the choice, i would have gotten Hanley Ramirez instead of Albert Pujols. I know Ramirez is awesome, and i also know that getting a lot of power from SS is harder than getting power from 1B, but i really wanted Pujols because he is just so goddamn awesome and reliable. And he hasn’t let me down.

Anyway, thanks for the advice, folks. I’m leaning towards making the trade.

7

Careful there - that’s a common trap. Bad teams get plenty of save opportunities throughout the year. Saves are saves, and any damage done to your ERA/WHIP will be fixed by your starters or another RP specialist.

I also wouldn’t worry too much about outfield flexibility. You have two middle infielders on your bench, one of which possesses little potential this year (Cabrera).

8

Don’t worry, i wasn’t planning on dumping Sherrill. With the Orioles’ sluggers scoring pretty well, he’ll get some chances even though the Birds’ starting pitchers are crap.

He’s just not going to get the number of save chances that someone like K-Rod or Papelbon will.

Yeah, i only picked up Cabrera because he’s started well, and Tuklowitzki was hitting so poorly. I’ve played Cabrera in a few games, and he’s done pretty well for me, but i have no intention of keeping him around all season.

9

See if you can pick up Dexter Fowler of the Rockies as a free agent first. He’s quickly becoming their everyday CF and will be good for 35-45 steals over the season with a decent bat. He’s still available in most leagues.

10

how much are you loving Frank Francisco?

you have to go back to last year to put an earned run on that guy.

11

I thought about that after i watched him steal 5 bases in a single game against the Padres the other night, but someone else got in and snapped him up. Thing is, that guy has Carlos Beltran as his CF, so i’m not sure how much playing time Fowler is going to get on that team.

Yeah, he’s pretty great. It’s not just luck either; his WHIP is down at 0.56, and his K/BB ratio is 9.0/1.

12

Late to the thread, but I’ve got to come out against. Upton is meatlocker cold and Kershaw is young and unpredictable, while Pence is serviceable but not sexy and Myers is pathologically average.

In effect, you’re trading 2 birds for 2.25 in the bush. That, and the fact that it limits your flexibility in the OF really turn me off. The only way I could see it is if you needed SB, BB, and (Pitching) K’s and are well set in the power categories. YMMV.

13

Thought i’d take the opportunity to update the thread, and to get some advice on another issue.

First, i decided to reject the trade, and so far it’s working out OK.

Since the trade offer, B.J. Upton’s line is .178/.240/.244 with 4 BB, 9 Runs, 2 RBI, and 0 net stolen bases (2 SB, 2 CS). Hunter Pence is .371/.488/.514 with 8 BB, 9 Runs, 3 RBI, and -1 NSB.

Both Kershaw and Myers have had 1 win and 1 quality start, although Kershaw’s other numbers have been better than Myers’.

Anyway, my question relates to a situation i’m facing for today’s (Tuesday) game between the Padres and the Cubs. For the first time, two of my starting pitchers are going up against one another, and i was just wondering whether there’s any special strategy for dealing with this situation.

My first reaction is just to play both of them, Peavy and Harden. That way, i’m almost guaranteed to get one win, and the ways those guys pitch i also have a chance for two quality starts. In the best possible world, i’d like them both to pitch complete games, and for one team to win the game 1-0.

I have no hitters in my fantasy team from either the Cubs or the Padres, so that’s not a concern. I guess i’m just wondering whether it’s better to gamble and bench one of them (i’m a currently running a little bit over my projected innings limit), or just play them both and hope for two good pitching performances.