I’m interested in your input regarding the relative value of players by position.
Here’s how we do it (although I don’t want it to inhibit your input if your setup isn’t exactly like ours):
AL only
8 teams
11 hitters (4 OF, 1b, 2b, ss, 3b, C, DH and utility)
7 pitchers (4SP, 2RP and one who can be either)
Hitting stats … HR, RBI, SB and Ave.
Pitching stats … W, S, ERA and WHIP
Here’s my philosophy and comments and wonder what you think
Reasons pitchers are more important …
a. they make up 1/7 of half your stats vs 1/11 of the other half
b. there are two quality catgories vs one for hitters
c. the starters as a subgroup get more innings so they are even more important to Wins and the two ratios
d. they few closers are the only ones who contribute to Saves
Comments?
Not sure how I’d rate a great closer vs a great starter.
I’m currently blessed with an abundance of closers (we also have two reserve spots) and I’m trying to convince others to value them as much as I do for a potential trade.
I’ve made my own database of players that ranks their various statistics within their position. In the draft, I can then assess the value of drafting someone like Chase Utley (really good stats and absolutely blows the bell curve for other 2nd basemen) versus Lance Berkman (really good stats but I can find 5 or 6 similar guys at his position.) That way, I can pick up the scarce value that others might overlook during a positional run or just looking at the stats they pile up.
Because of this, I don’t really value hitters over pitchers or vice versa. I value the maximized expected return I can get for the pick at hand. That said, I do have certain other things I tend to incorporate in my team building philosophy. Stuff like:
-Pick up a 2nd catcher before any other backups and sometimes before a 2nd baseman or 3rd outfielder. Doing this usually gives me a great trading chip later in the year when injuries hit and I have 2 clear starters or it gives me a chance to take a young stud with potential keeper status to supplany my older pick (like I have with Victor Martinez/Geovany Soto this year).
-If picking a closer fairly early, go with healthy and secure before all else. The season will bring about an easy 10+ cahnges in closer status for variuos reasons so I can always pick up someone if needed.
-Middle relievers (unless it’s a handcuff for an obvious closer change) are like the kicker in fantasy football. Not a ton of difference and you don’t know any better than I do which one will be a stud or a dud this year.
-For hitters, pile up as many 27-30 year olds as possible.
-Know your park effects
-Average pitchers with a high octane offense behind them are just about as valuable as good pitchers with poor run support because they’ll be available in the middle rounds and free up early rounds to stock up on hitters
-Pick a category from the itching/hitting group with the most scoring options (pitchers have 7 categories, hitter have 11 then go with the hitters) and don’t worry about it one little bit. I tend to do this with steals. By ignoring it, I don’t artificially inflate a one skill player that might drag down others and I can have an easier time finding people that do well at multiple categories without getting spread too thin.
My general philosophy is actually the opposite of the one you are proposing. Since pitching is far more variable and harder to accurately forecast I almost always error on the side of hitting during a draft/auction. I just feel like I have a better handle on the level of performance to expect. For example, in my mixed league this year I had Gallardo, Smoltz, and Bonderman - three pitchers you could reasonably expect to produce. All three are out for the season. Hitters sometimes have catastrophic breakdowns/collapses, but not nearly as often as pitchers.
I believe there is a formal name for this approach from one of the popular fantasy books (Fantasyland, perhaps?).
Also, much of what Mullinator said - park effects, peak age group (27-30). Although I almost never draft a closer early.
Interesting comments especially from a draft perspective. I once tried to rate players based on their relative production to the total in the league. That seemed to be a good way to value a steal guy who gets 50 of the 700 total vs an HR guy who gets 25 of 3000 (totals just pulled out of thin air). I could never figure out how to factor the averages in though.
From a trade perspective though, all healthy in the middle of the season … how would you value the top notch closers vs the top notch starters vs a 2, 3 and 4 category hitters?