Fantasy Football Advice - Week 4

These threads seem to be doing a lot better than my “unsolicited fantasy advice” thread, so I’m just going to start posting my weekly advice in these.

For now, I have a question for you: am I crazy for considering Chris Perry (vs. Browns) over Clinton Portis (vs. Cowboys)?

Portis has done pretty well for me so far; after a so-so Week 1 in which he posted 84 yards but no scores, he’s had 96/2 and 68/1. Problem is, I see the Cowboys game going much the same way as the Giants game- Redskins get behind big and have to abandon the run. It doesn’t help matters that the Cowboys have the #5 rush defense through 3 weeks.

On the other hand, Perry gets the Browns, who haven’t stopped anybody, and looked rather good last week.

My other backs are Michael Turner (must-start, even with a bad matchup against the Panthers), Willie McGahee (must-sit, since he’s playing Pittsburgh and didn’t show me much in his only action last week), and Steve Slaton.

Slaton is tempting too, but he’s playing Jacksonville and I don’t want to get crazy just because he had one good game.

For now, I’m going to stick with Portis; he was my #1 pick (I had the last pick in a 12-team league) and when I doubt I leave the stud in.

I’d be hesitant to start Perry over Portis.

As for my running back issues, which 2 of my hurt/underpreforming/RBBC’d running backs would you pick

Grant @TB
LenDale Min
Selvin Young @KC
Perry Cle

Right now I think I have to go Young and Perry. Ironically, I picked Westbrook over Peterson to avoid the injury risk.

Heh. Westbrook is, if anything, the ultimate injury risk, although he was pretty dependable last season.

LenWhale is right out; Minnesota’s run defense is phenomenal. Unless you’ve got Buckhalter, (and with five other backs on your roster I doubt you do) you can’t start Westbrook.

I think you have to go Grant and Perry. Young has an attractive matchup but he’s merely the first head of a three-headed monster. Until he starts getting more than 10-15 carries, I don’t think he’s startable.

Portis will still get goal-line chances, and the Redskins offense has looked better lately, so I think you have to keep him in there. I agree Turner should be a no-brainer with a rookie QB, but the Panthers have done a pretty good job against LT and A. Petersen this year. Their D is pretty good. He may bust a big one, but I think this will be a low-scoring game.

I’m pretty much conceding this week. I’m 3-0 and so is my opponent, but I have Addai on a bye this week and he has M. Lynch, Gore and C. Perry starting…

I’m countering with E. Graham, D. McFadden and Fred Taylor. I REALLY need McFadden to have a huge week, but I doubt it, especially with his turf toe.

My WRs are stronger, but I have Brees at QB and they are down so many weapons on offense that I don’t know who’ll catch the ball other than Bush.

I offered this trade this week, would you have gone for it?

I offered Andre Johnson and Earnest Graham for LT.

He had the #1 pick, and LT hasn’t been productive, and the rest of his team is only OK. He’s 0-3. His other RBs are R. Grant and C. Johnson, so he has options there. His WRs are Chambers, L. Coles, V. Jackson, and A. Gonzales.

I figured Johnson is a top-10 WR (not yet, but everyone keeps saying so…) and Grham, while a step down, isn’t terrible.

He declined.

Westbrook didn’t practice Friday and it looks like he’s not going to play at the Bears. White gets the TD’s, but the Vikings rush defense is incredible, so he’s not your guy.

So it’s Young, Perry, and Grant. Young has an outstanding YPC (6.9), but only gets about 9 (8.7) carries a game and Pittman gets the goal line carries. He’s also going up against the woeful Chiefs, which are the second worse (thank you Lions) against the run, giving up over 200 yards a game. And with Denver’s prolific offense, I think there will be plenty of carries to go around in the second half of the game.

Perry is tempting because he’s the guy in Cincinnati and has a couple of average games (20 carries, 70 yards and a TD) in the last two games against some very good rush defenses (Titans and Giants). And this week he’s going against the Browns who have given up the most rushing TD’s in the league (tied with a few teams) and 140+ ypg.

And Grant is… well he’s Ryan Grant. A top 15 draft pick who has the potential to put up great numbers. Except… he hasn’t. His hammy injury has seriously limited his production, with only 55 ypg and 0 touchdowns so far this year. This week, McCarthy is saying he’s a lot healthier (but he said the same last week) and will finally be able to cut it loose this weekend. The Bucs held Michael Turner to 42 yards in week 2, but have given up almost 100 against the Broncos and almost 130 against the Bears (although 38 yards was on a fake punt). So it’s a crap shoot which team will show up.

Seeing as how all three of these guys are on different rosters of mine, I’m torn too. I’m probably starting Young over Larry Johnson (how stupid is that, but I just don’t see Johnson getting more than 10 carries before the Chiefs are down by 24 points). I’m also starting Perry over Edgerrin James.

I’d probably end up going with Grant and Perry, but I don’t think Young is a horrible play either.

I would have too; not necessarily because it’s a bad trade (on production so far, it’s about even) but because you just don’t trade away the centerpiece of your team after three weeks.

LT’s numbers will improve; Rivers is playing very well right now, which means teams will be forced to start defending the pass a bit more, and he’s always a slow starter anyway.

The Bucs haven’t played the Broncos. They played the Saints in Week 1, and gave up 100+ combined yards to Bush, but 60something of them came on one catch-and-run where he should have been tackled twice within the first ten yards. Having watched them (my team, incidentally) bottle up Turner in Week 2, I’m fairly impressed with the run defense but the tackling isn’t there just yet.

I’m starting to curse my running backs at this point because I have five starters in a 2-RB league, and although I know that will be paying off come Week 8 or so, it’s really hurting me at other positions because we only have 5 bench spots; right now I’m using three on McGahee, Slaton and Perry, one on my #4 WR (was carrying Deion Branch, but he’s on a bye this week so I had to drop hip for Antonio Bryant since Reggie Wayne is on his bye too) and one on whichever guy out of Kurt Warner and Eli Manning I’m not starting (starting Warner this week).

I’d look for Perry to have a huge game. This is the first bad defense the Bengals have played so far this season (Giants, Titans, Ravens).

Originally posted by** Really Not All That Bright**

Yeah, I was trying to take advantage of his 0-3 start and see if he’d panic…

Westbrook is questionable, and unlikely to play. One thing to remember is that Westbrook plays on Sunday night. This is important because some of your options to replace him in your lineup play during the day, and would have already played before you get a chance to hear about Westbrook’s game time status. I would, unfortunately, bench him.

Ryan Grant against Tampa Bay is an interesting play. Here’s a fun question, between Minnesota (a notoriously dominant run defense) and Tampa Bay, which team has given up the most rushing TDs to RBs?

Minnesota, 2 to 0

What is even more interesting, is that despite that statistic, Tampa Bay gives up the 16th most fantasy points to RBs, whereas Minnesota is second best in the league against RBs. Why? Tampa Bay gives up a ton of points to RBs in the air. Ryan Grant is not an accomplished, or talented, pass catcher out of the backfield. I don’t think he has a good game, I would bench him.

LenDale White faces the monster defense in Minnesota. Normally this is a no brainer benching. Here’s why I think he has a decent game. Minnesota can not defend against the pass, at all. Tennessee will use the pass to get into the red zone a couple times in this game, and LenDale will pound in a TD. I think he’ll finish with something like 15-20 yards and a TD. It’s possible that that result is worthy of starting, and even that paltry amount of yardage would result in a surprising fantasy output.

While the idea that Denver will go ahead early and turn to the run is logical, keep in mind that Denver has one of the worst defenses in the league. KC might actually stick around enough that Denver will stay to the pass for the majority of the game, and so I don’t think Young will top 18 carries. Even with only 18 carries, that could be 100 yards.

Chris Perry is really interesting. On one hand, he hasn’t really had any good games, but on the other hand, he has played against really good defenses in every game. Do you take the chance? I would, because of the matchup. I’m just not comfortable looking at Westbrook as Questionable and Grant against TB and trying to win a fantasy game with that. Then again, you might not be comfortable starting Perry and Young over two first round quality RBs.

My order (from highest fantasy points to lowest) is: Perry, Young, White, Grant, Westbrook. If Westbrook plays, I’m so sorry about this post.

I said “bench Westbrook” too, but I’m not apologizing. Problem is that Westbrook plays in the night game, so by the time you find out whether he’ll play, it’s too late to change your lineup- that is, unless you have Buckhalter, Forte, McGahee or Mendenhall- which you don’t.

Besides, considering it’s doubtful that he will play, it seems likely that if he does play, he’ll see limited carries. Buckhalter is available via free agency, but I’m going to be somewhat busy tomorrow, and don’t really want to need to do a pregame shuffle for the night game. Thomas Jonas is another notable free agent.

Thomas Jones is a free agent?!?! What kind of league is this?

(Not that he’s particularly good, or anything, but he was drafted in the top five rounds in almost every 12 team league this year)

10 man league, I think he got dropped after his disappointing game vs the chargers. It turned out that I had no right choice. LenDale was technically the best choice with a whopping 7 points, but it wouldn’t have mattered. Hopefully Westbrook comes back next week.