Fantasy Football Week 7 - Sit or Start

The Game Room
1

No one has started the thread yet and I have some big questions in several of my leagues at the RB position so I figured I get the train going before I sat down with my NFL Picks thread.

In my money league, which is a full point per reception league, I need to pick 2 RBs and a Flex player for the week. My options are:

Ahmad Bradshaw vs. Ari
Laurence Maroney @ TB (in London)
Donald Brown @ StL
Tashard Choice vs. Atl
Matt Forte @ Cin

If I have no WRs not on a Bye to plug into the Flex spot so I’m pretty much stuck choosing 3 of these 5. Quite a few good matchups against poor defenses but 4 of the 5 have questions about the number of carries they’ll be getting and Forte is facing a pretty decent run defense on the road with his well publicized blocking issues.

I have similar choices in the He Hate ME league with most of the same players. I’ve got to pick 2 RBs and a Flex from:

Ahmad Bradshaw vs. Ari
Laurence Maroney @ TB (in London)
Matt Forte @ Cin
Mike Bell @ Mia

I could play a WR in the Flex if I wanted and I have:

Johnny Knox @ Cin
Massaquoi vs. GB
Cotchery @ Oak
Crabtree @ Hou

Not stellar choices but Knox has a really juicy matchup versus the Bengals secondary. Crabtree would be a bold move against Houston and it wouldn’t shock me if he started fast there but it’s too much of a gamble.

In the All-Pro league I’ve got to pick a Flex from:

Ahmad Bradshaw vs. Ari
Pierre Garcon @ StL
Carnell Williams vs. NE (in London)
Jonathan Stewart vs. Buf
Michael Bush vs. NYJ

In the SDMB Auction League I nabbed Sam Aiken off the waiver wire and am considering starting him over Bernard Berrian @ Pit in London versus Tampa.

As you can see I’ve got a ton of the same players in these leagues and I’m not clear on who’s the best play this week. I’m half tempted to hedge my bets and mix it up. With my money league and the All-Pro leagues giving points for receptions perhaps there’s a different mix I should use for those versus the straight yardage/TD leagues.

I’m eager to hear your thoughts.

2

Maroney, Bradshaw and Forte? I know Forte has some problems, but if he’s supposed to be your horse, you’ve got to ride him.

I have my usual Addai/Brown dilemma.

3

Garcon isn’t an option, in my mind. Gonzalez is coming back, and Collie is above Garcon on the target list. I’d go with Williams or Stewart.

In my money league, I have too many options.

WR (start 2): DeSean Jackson, Steve Smith (NYG), Welker, M. Austin
RB (start 1): L. Washington, Sproles, Larry Johnson, Cadillac
Flex: start one of the above bench players

In the He Hate Me league, I have the following choices. I’m leaning towards Ryan and Charles:

Cutler @ Cin
Ryan @ Dal

J. Charles v. SD
F. Taylor v. NE

In the big league, I have a touch choice at flex. L Moore looked great last week, but Collie’s going in against a terrible Rams team. Seems that Peyton is trying to pad his numbers this year (lots of passes inside the 10).:

L. Moore @ Mia
A. Collie v. StL

4

Yeah, I’ll be hard pressed to bench Forte, both because he’s supposed to be the core of my team and because I’m a Bears fan and I’d hate to be kicking myself as I watch him trounce the Bengals. But he’s been awful for most of the season and there no reason to assume he’ll be getting any better. Last week’s goal line issue might mean the Bears pass in the red zone even more this week and the Bengals rush defense and tackling is very good.

Normally I believe in the mantra of “don’t sit your studs” but with Sammie Morris out and Maroney showing signs of life and facing a awful Bucs defense and Bradshaw playing great lately with the Cards having to come into the cold on Sunday Night in Jersey it seems like an option. Even Brown and Choice sound like good plays when you look at the matchups and recent performances. Marion Barber has a broken finger and Choice is expected to get even more work. Brown faces a crappy Rams team indoors and the Colts will be running out the clock in the second half.

In HHM I’m really liking Johnny Knox’s matchup, he’ll have a huge game but any of those RBs could go for 20 points and my starting WRs are too good to sit.

5

Gonzalez is not back. He hasn’t practiced at all yet and he’s at least 2 or 3 more weeks away. Collie will probably go big too, but this is the Rams in a dome. Every Colt deserves consideration.

I should note that I have DeAngelo Williams starting. I’m not sure if I want to start both Panthers RBs, feels risky, though the Bills run defense is terrible. Hmm.

Welker, Smith and flex Austin, all day long, no brainer.
The RBs all suck, Cadillac and LJ both are playing mediocre rush defenses and will get the vast majority of the touches while Leon and Sproles are playing crappy defenses and will get the minority of the work. You can’t win here, but my gut says Cadillac and and Washington. I really dislike Sproles. Use LJ if you think the Bucs end up abandoning the run against the Pats. I have a hunch they won’t make that mistake with Johnson at QB.

I like Cutler over Ryan this week. The Falcons will force the run against Dallas and the Bengals pass defense is awful and the Bears will have no choice but the throw the ball all over the field.

Fred Taylor? Against NE? I’m trying to figure out who you meant here. Taylor is hurt and not playing.

Collie for sure. Moore will be inconsistent all season long and the Dolphin pass defense is solid and they’ll control time of possession.

6

Not Start or Sit, but a trade proposal:

I’m offering Megatron and Flacco for Gore.

Fair? (Flacco is my backup to Warner, and while I may be better off keeping Flacco, he’s more desirable as trade bait.) I need a RB1 and have other WRs.

7

Seems like a lot to give for Gore considering his injury history. I would imagine that Flacco straight up could get it done depending on the scoring system and the other owner’s QB situation. Megatron’s injury situation is tricky since it’s unclear if he’ll miss any more games after this week, but I might expect to get back something else along with Gore in that deal. Perhaps a guy like Miles Austin or Austin Collie, or a above average TE or Defense if you are playing Waiver roulette there.

8

Actually, I’m getting Santonio Holmes with Gore, but I considered him a throw in.

9

Holmes is definitely not a throw in, he’s a solid WR2 in most leagues. A throw in is someone you could probably snatch off the waiver wire.

It’s hard to evaluate the trade without the context of the rest of your team.

So, half point ppr otherwise normal - Marion Barber vs ATL or Pierre Thomas @MIA?

I’m not too worried about last week with Thomas. Bell did end up getting a similar number of carries, but more than half came in the 4th quarter when it was a multiscore game. Bell did get a goal line carry too, but Thomas had 6 red zone carries so it’s not like they’re depriving him of the chance.

On the other hand, Miami’s run defense is pretty good, better than Atlanta. Barber is a question mark because now they’ve got all 3 backs, and Barber broke his thumb and still has a tweaked quad.

10

That’s no throw in, with Megatron’s injury Holmes is probably more valuable than him stright up. The trade is gold if it’s Gore and Holmes for Johnson and Flacco. That’s a big win for you.

11

Avoid Barber like the plague. The Falcons run D is solid and that thumb will be all kinds of trouble. He’ll have to come off in the field any time there’s a potential pass and fumbles could crop up if he’s used a lot. I worry about the split in NO but Thomas has fewer red flags than Barber.

12

Ok, my team was this before the trade:

QB Warner
QB Flacco

RB LDT
RB Lynch
RB Caddy
RB Choice
RB Sproles
RB Moreno

WR Boldin
WR S. Smith (NY)
WR Megatron
WR K. Walter
WR Breaston

TE Clark
TE Shiancoe

D Jets
K Kaeding