Agree 1,000%.
FBI Search and Seizure at Trump's Mar-A-Lago Residence, August 8, 2022, Case Dismissed July 15, 2024
Right, because it can be taken for granted that he meant that that should happen in the usual way that the authorities in a democracy lock someone up, via indictment and warrant and so forth. And “reasonable bail”, for someone with their own private jet and powerful foreign allies, is of course to not allow bail.
So, the closer one is to being a strongman the more immune you should be from prosecution for crimes?
I don’t see the current DoJ seeing things that way. The Trump DoJ, possibly.
Plus, Obama is pretty popular also. He should start planning that bank heist.
If Trump did indeed shoot someone on Fifth Avenue in broad daylight would the police wait until after the election before charging him so as to avoid politicizing things? It is always election season in the US. The Justice Department is going to wait until after the midterms because they don’t want to interfere with an election Trump isn’t even running in and then what are they going to do when he declares one day later? I guess we have to wait until after that election to make sure we don’t politicize it! Oh darn, midterms again! Guess we should wait some more so we don’t influence that election. Well, that’s assuming the United States is still a democracy halfway into a second Trump term that is. So just to be on the safe side I guess we have to wait until after the midterms of 2030. Unless of course Trump just ignores term limits like he ignores every other rule, law, regulation, norm and custom and just decides to run again in 2032. Well, he can’t possibly live forever. I guess we can throw him in jail after he dies of old age.
But is there any evidence, sufficient to convince a federal magistrate judge, that he has such documents in any other residence?
You can’t just say, “We found stolen docs at location A, so you should let us search location B, and location C.”
You have to have probable cause, based on recent evidence, that there are documents that are evidence of a crime in location B, and you have to have separate probable cause, based on recent evidence, that there are documents which are evidence of a crime in location C.
And you can’t just say, “because we found stolen documents at location A, you have to let us put him in jail to keep him from interfering in our search of his properties, B and C.”
That’s what your initial post suggested, and which you seem to be suggesting in the quoted post.
I assume this is your opinion, and it’s valid. What goes into deciding whether to charge Person A can and should be radically different than ex-President B.
This is probably beyond the scope of this thread, but having proof of a crime beyond a reasonable doubt would be one of many factors in determining whether to charge (anyone). I can see the legitimacy of the DOJ at stake here, which should be a factor considered.
You’re acting like I wrote the policy and not the DOJ. 
You even quoted me saying I disagree with it.
“I’m sure Mar-a-Lago was being targeted by Russian intelligence and other intelligence services over the course of the last 18 or 20 months, and if they were able to get individuals into that facility, and access those rooms where those documents were and made copies of those documents, that’s what they would do.”
To be fair, there’s quite a lot of evidence to support this view. Remember that multiple allies reportedly considered Trump a security risk for intelligence after he gave Israeli intel to Russia (who gave it to Iran), and after Jared (who had access to the highest level intelligence despite failing to obtain security clearance) was known to be at high risk for blackmail and bribery by allies and non-allies alike.
For those interested, I had Googled “Espionage Act” “Probable Cause,” and this document resulted. While it necessarily cannot definitively answer the question about Probable Cause to search Trump’s other properties, it:
- Does generally address Probable Cause in this context
- Gives a pretty fair synopsis of the three potential violations that seem to underlie the Affidavit
The Mar-a-Lago Search Warrant: A Legal Introduction - Congressional Research Service - 6pp PDF
But there is evidence.
Let’s say there is prof that I stole two cars (the documents). A search is made of my garage at my house. One car is found. But the keys for the other (the empty folders) are found as well.
I believe the keys found to the stolen car (the empty folder) is evidence enough to search any other garages that I own.
And given that evidence, it’s unfathomable that the proportion of the country who sees Trump as a threat to national security is only 50%. In a sane world it would be 95%.
(Of course, in a sane world, Trump would never have been placed in a position where he could become a threat to national security.)
The empty folders are not proof that documents are missing. The documents previously in those folders might be those already recovered, or those folders might not have held documents.
I think he probably has documents elsewhere, but it’s not enough evidence to get a warrant.
First item of note:
The NYT argued that Trump declassified a covert program in Syria by mentioning it publicly. As such, the question of whether documentation can become “declassified” without formal procedures was asked and answered - probably with Trump’s own appointees making the argument that procedure must be followed. The court, ultimately, sided with the government and agreed that procedure must be followed. The New York Times could not gain access to the documents that they wanted.
Trump’s argument that he can declassify freely goes against a precedent that he created.
If in fact DOJ has enough evidence to indict Trump but is in fact willing to wait until November, I wonder if it’s because they feel that they’ve limited or eliminated his ability to do any more damage. IOW, they now have all the docs he could sell, swap or carelessly allow to be viewed, so without that urgency they may as well adhere to the rule about election interference.
If that’s the case, I still disagree. Nail him now.
Pretty good evidence though. He stole folders with documents in them. Some folders show up empty. Would Trump have had empty Top Secret folders just lying around in the White House to play with? Would White House security casually leave a box of empty folders around that he could access?
I believe I read somewhere that the folders are marked/matched to the documents. So maybe they can puzzle out what is missing. I don’t envy that job. It’s reasonable to assume that the documents are missing. And Trump or someone took them.
If they’re going to charge him, they have to be sure they can convict. They need to prove that it wasn’t simply an oversight in the chaotic move from DC to FL (A chaos he created, but whatever). They need to talk to those who did the packing and moving. Did they say “hey, cheetoface, are these classified documents supposed to go with you?” or did they simply say among themselves “boss said everything under the bed goes so pack it all up”? Sure, he’s guilty as sin but they have to be able to prove it beyond reasonable doubt.
Even though not technically on the ballot, indicting him now would impact the 2022 elections and shouldn’t be done now. If only Comey had exercised discretion and not announced the reopening of the but her emails investigation we wouldn’t be in this fix. On November 9, if DOJ is satisfied that they can convict, then indict the bastard. If it upsets the 25% of the country that thinks he is the infallible messiah, then tough cookies.
They most likely feel he has been neutralized for a couple of reasons. One is that he has been exposed and anyone looking to get any more information from him would have to be suspect if the information was real or planted information by the government or Trump himself). Perhaps someone close to Trump and he has used as an intermediary has been flipped. Second is that he doesn’t know who to trust anymore to even mention the documents he still has (and yes he has more). Third, he has actual government agents following his every move, the Secret Service. While they may not arrest him on the spot they are obligated to report and keep on eye on any criminal activity he may do.
Or … now he’s desperate. He may have thought he had all the time in the world to sell off his stolen secrets, but now the FBI has seized (most of?) his trove and they’re on his case. Now, if he has anything left, he may be inclined to unload it for whatever price he can get.
Nail him now.
Unless I missed it, no one had answered the question as to whether or not DOJ can file an appeal without having everything come to a grinding halt. I can’t keep track of all the “experts” but one of them said on NPR that the answer is “Yes”. How long it would take for an appeal to heard and ruled on is anybody’s guess but Cannon’s ruling cannot be allowed to become uncontested precedent. I haven’t seen or heard from any legal experts that she is on solid legal ground with her ruling. Not one. I’d hope that members of the 11th are already researching and preparing draft opinions.