We know already that Donald’s not negotiating in good faith, both from his past attempts to use ‘Chuck & Nancy’ as a counterweight to recalcitrant Republicans and from his recent lies about how he can’t make a deal with them because they want to flood the country with illegal immigrants.
If a deal gets made, it will be despite Donald, not because of him.
Why federal employees? I am one myself, and was locked out during the last shutdown, but IIRC, all employees were given full pay for days they would have worked during the shutdown.
The biggest losers could be the military and veterans; during the last shutdown, all of the PXs/Base Exchanges shut down, as they were staffed by civilians. I think this is one of the reasons the Department of Defense civilians were called back before everybody else.
Republicans are - historically - the ones who take it in the neck following a government shutdown.
I’ll take that bet again. The generic congressional is already at D+7.8. The tax cut is historically unpopular. The sitting president is underwater by 17.2 points. Maybe we can get that generic congressional to D+12 or +14.
Have democrats threatened to filibuster? I didn’t see that threat in either of those articles. By the articles linked in the OP, it sounded like the republicans just couldn’t get the 50 votes together in their own party to pass it, and so needed democrats to cross the aisle.
I don’t desire to cause you undue stress, but have you ever seen that message in tiny print in the footnotes of investment alternatives? Something along the lines of “Past performance is no guarantee of future results”?
The expectation that employees to do evermore, with unnecessary uncertainty is unfortunate. Even if staff takes what is - in essence - a paid vacation, it does not help in working down any workloads. And paying people to not work is discouraging to many hard working federal employees who would prefer to simply be allowed to do their jobs.
And I’m not the person to be crying about the poor active military and vets being inconvenienced in shopping at the PX. Boo fucking hoo. I imagined the DoD employees called back were actually working in vital roles - say pentagon or base staffers. Not ringing up cheap smokes!
I do not believe it was a given that fed employs would be paid while they were furloughed. IIRC, congress passed a resolution granting them that pay, but didn’t have to. That was one of the reasons why the shutdown ended up costing far more than just remaining open would have, essentially, the last shutdown just gave fed employees an unscheduled paid vacation, paid for by tax coffers.
Perhaps a little bit of both:
I suspect this attitude is going to get thrown back into the faces of another constituency this time around, if a shutdown does indeed occur.
It wasn’t a given. We were nervously waiting and wondering. And this time, even fewer old rules hold, so it would be more uncertain.
On top of that - shutting down is a stressful experience. Travelers need to be ready to change plans and return home on a moments notice. Workloads don’t drop. Large-scale meetings are cancelled/rescheduled, the relationships with contractors have to be sorted out (contractors are not officially subject to shutdown, but may not be able to access facilities, so may be subject to unpaid leave). I work in NOAA, and boats with $100,000s of operating costs and scientific expeditions that had been planned for years had to return to port (and the sampling was time-dependent, so permanently lost and I still have to work around those missing data points). I was a Federal manager at the time, and the stress headache was not worth the time off.
That’s my bet as well. Democrats are crap at certain key political battles, but in budget negotiations they’ve tended to come out smelling pretty good. And that was before they had the gift of Trump tweeting about how a deal was impossible, making it way easier for them to blame Republicans for any shutdown.
I’m not at all crazy about linking other issues to the budget, e.g., DACA folks. That’s a crucial issue, but this sort of budgetary hijinks rubs me the wrong way. However, I think McConnell’s gonna have a helluva time shutting Dems out of real negotiations AND getting a budget passed, and if he doesn’t get it passed, all his efforts to blame Dems will be undercut by Trump’s spastic twitterfingers.
That is correct, it is not a given that federal employees will be paid. Congress would have to approve it, as they have in the past.
There is also the issue that a shutdown that began on Dec 8 would mean that feds would almost certainly not receive their mid December paycheck If it were retroactively granted, it would be paid at the end of the month, or later. Not all federal employees are highly paid, or good with personal finance, so this would be a substantial inconvenience for some.
https://me.me/i/smok-only-you-can-prevent-forest-fires-national-park-service-12725236
Only you can prevent forest fires! Seriously. We’ve been defunded, its just you now.
It’s not a guarantee, but it makes for a pretty good bet.
You’ve been asked several times why the party that does not control any of the government would be blamed by the public at large, except of course for Fox viewers. Are you willing to back down from that statement yet?
Huh. I was all getting ready to get you a Wikipedia cite for the shutdown in 2010, but it turns out there was no such thing: I was misremembering.
So yeah, Hurricane: this is an excellent question. Before, when it’s been a battle between Republicans and Democrats, Republicans have gotten splattered.
Here, it’s likely to be a case where not even all the Republicans can agree, and they’re proposing a budget without bothering to make concessions enough to get even a few Democrats on board, and the president has declared the negotiations with Democrats futile before they even start. Are you seriously thinking Republicans will come out the winners of public perception here?
I basically agree, but it has crossed my mind that the Democrats are, like the Republicans when they were the minority, becoming the party of no. Maybe we just don’t hear about it, but I’ve not heard much about their vision of what their legislative agenda looks like. I don’t say that in response to whether a shutdown can be averted, but I’m more looking ahead to the campaign season that starts pretty soon. What do Democrats propose other than “Trump sucks”? I honestly don’t know if I can answer that question right now without some serious Googling.
The democrats have the same vision that they have had since 2008. It really hasn’t changed. Voters have become a little disillusioned with their vision, but really only because of republican’s preventing them from implementing it.
The republicans had to dramatically change their vision when the voters rejected them in 2006 and 2006, what with their handling of the war and economy. They’ve been adrift since, only defining their party identity and vision by an opposition to governing by the democrats.
The republicans can’t just go back to the policies they had before, as those are proven to be disastrous to the country, and the voters know it, but they have no other direction to go.
And imagine what that does to the economy of towns and cities that depend on military bases and government facilities…
A Better Deal. It gives broad overview strokes, with links to more specific summaries, with links to very detailed positions. I don’t see links to specific bills, but otherwise there’s a lot there to look at.
The problem is, right now their proposition of legislation is pointless, given the control Republicans maintain of the process.
Why don’t you go back and read the OP, then read post #5, then read post #9 (maybe read that one twice, really slowly even), and see if you can figure out what any one of my several answers to that question is. If you’re still confused, come back again and I’ll quote myself.