That’s certainly not a claim I made in the OP. I don’t know who will come out the winners. I see some noteworthy differences between this government shutdown and the last couple.
Most people don’t see the debate in such a ridiculously biased manner. We understand that both sides want the government to be funded, but each side has issues they consider so important that they wouldn’t accept a funding bill that includes it (or doesn’t include it). If Republicans insist on a bill that they know Democrats won’t accept, they are just as culpable.
In the end, the public opinion will not hinge on which side is voting “for” or “against.” It will hinge on how which side they agree with regarding the particular sticking point. In this case it’ll be DACA, and the majority of Americans are on the side of the Democrats on this particular issue.
You’ve certainly done a good job of outlining the Democrat’s hopes on the matter. I’m not sure that “Most people don’t see the debate …” is really all that accurate. I suspect “most people” are deeply ignorant of how federal government budgeting works, even on a rudimentary level. I suspect for “most people” it’ll simply come down to tribal loyalties: “I trust Nancy Pelosi, and she says we’re getting screwed here, so I hope the Dems hang tough” or “I trust Paul Ryan, and he says the Dems are being obstructionist, so may poop fill their shoes”, (assuming, for a moment, that they know who Nancy Pelosi or Paul Ryan are).
Paul Ryan is their intellectual leader, their policy wank. Wonk. Whatever.
How do you determine “what is good for the country” without using ideology?
With facts.
Yeah, when has that ever failed? Oh, right, when you tell them the truth and they still don’t like you.
Well, I suspect most people tend to view Republicans as the party of shutdowns.
Partially because they caused two major shutdowns already, and there’s a sizable contingent of Republicans who WANT government shutdowns. See, for example, the President.
It’s pretty easy. Democrats just have to say “Even if we all vote No, whatever they want goes through.” Your initial quotes say just that - they won’t help. It doesn’t matter what Democrats vote if the Republicans can get all their ducks in a row. Unfortunately, the Freedom Caucus and Cruz Contingent want to burn it all down anyway.
Maybe instead of the “Fuck Everyone* Tax Plan”, they should have been putting together and advertising some sort of spending bill to keep the government running. I don’t see why it’s the responsibility of congressional Democrats to keep the ship afloat.
Here’s Wikipedia’s list of past government shutdowns.
Most of the short ones happened during a weekend, and practically nobody noticed that there was a shutdown. The same thing will quite possibly happen this time, since the funding expires at midnight next Friday, December 8. If the shutdown ends before, say, 4am on Monday, December 11, Federal workers will be at their desks as usual that day, and few will remember that there had been a shutdown over the weekend.
But your claim is that people will think “Republicans want to fund the government, Democrats want a shutdown.” Very few people are that naïve.
And more to the point, it isn’t regarded as newsworthy, so it gets next to no media coverage.
Hell, asahi, how much media coverage did Hillary get of her proposals when she was the freakin’ Democratic nominee running for President??
That would be “hardly any.” Lots of coverage of emails and servers and the Clinton Foundation, and very little of what she would actually try to DO.
So the reason you don’t hear anything about the Dem agenda isn’t that the Dems aren’t pushing it - though they probably aren’t spending too much time on it, because they’ve learned there’s no point in banging their head against that wall at this point in time. They might have a chance next summer or fall.
This is not true, at least as far as the Senate is concerned. If at least some Democrats don’t vote for cloture, nothing “goes through.”
It’s a fair point, and almost certainly true in the case of some voters. It’s interesting this time because of the role reversal. Ds are in the minority and voting against the funding bill, while there’s an R in the White House.
Not just a majority, an overwhelming majority.
“We hate the dreamers so much that they are willing to shut down the government in order to expel them.” Is not something that is going to play well for the Republicans outside the xenophobic arm of their base.
All of your posts have been simple assertions, and contrary to historical precedent at that. If you’re finally ready for an explanation, have at it. :rolleyes:
OK, to recap, your confusion was on this point:
right?
Here are the relevant portions of my post #5 and #9, like I suggested you read:
This is, of course, no guarantee that it will work out that way, but it’s a possibility that I think your side is foolish to ignore. The responses I’ve received to that (aside from your incomprehension) seem to be largely along the lines of ‘people aren’t that naive’. Well, maybe, but it’s been a pretty consistent theme around here for the last 12 months that many of you badly underestimated just how naive / gullible / dumb the public is.
HurricaneDitka, have you actually heard or read anyone else say something to the effect of “The Republicans want to fund the government, Democrats want to shut it down”? Even after Trump tweeted “Our country needs a good `shutdown’”? I’m genuinely curious to see any cites on this.
But, as I understand it, the problem that Ryan is facing is that there is a faction of Republicans that will vote against it (the “shut it down” Tea-Party types), so he needs some Democrats to buy in (Boehner’s strategy). The Republicans technically do not need the Democrats, but practicality is a different matter. If both Republicans and Democrats vote against, and the Republicans are the ones in charge and don’t need the Democrats, I don’t see the blame sticking to the Democrats outside of the Fox News bubble.
Keep in mind, the Republicans are the ones who have been shouting “Shut it down!” since 2011; it’s their brand now.
I think you are confusing this with the tax reform bill. If I understand correctly, the tax reform is using reconciliation rules, and therefore only needs 50 votes in the Senate (plus VP’s tie-breaker vote). The Obamacare repeal bill was the same way.
But the funding bill to avert the shutdown can be filibustered, so it needs 60 votes to pass the Senate. It’s either that or the Nuclear Option, which I don’t think the Senate would go for.